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American Capital Agency Corp. Message Board

pc4me58 53 posts  |  Last Activity: 34 minutes ago Member since: May 20, 2008
  • Reply to

    my puts will look great tomorrow

    by stanstevens61 1 hour 15 minutes ago
    pc4me58 pc4me58 34 minutes ago Flag

    yeah. As long as you're short them.

  • pc4me58 pc4me58 37 minutes ago Flag

    do you ever get tired of people laughing at you? My money says you are either a kid on his mom's computer, or more likely you are just one of the many who pontificates but actually doesn't trade a dime. I'd love to have a buck for all the naysayers who have mised out on the run we've had since 2009.

  • My suggestion is to keep shorting more. SOmeday you'll be right. If you survive that is. How much you lose today?

  • Reply to

    Agnc not going to run away. Buy TICC instead.

    by pacman010987 Oct 18, 2014 7:01 PM
    pc4me58 pc4me58 Oct 21, 2014 4:52 PM Flag

    FAIR ENOUGH PACMAN. Points well taken. I will take a look. On ACAS, I've owned, or watched, for years. they have been buyers of their own stock but the stock remains at a huge discount to NAV. AT first glance TICC merits a deeper dive by me. Thanks

  • Reply to

    Agnc not going to run away. Buy TICC instead.

    by pacman010987 Oct 18, 2014 7:01 PM
    pc4me58 pc4me58 Oct 20, 2014 1:32 PM Flag

    Completely different animal. A business developement business should never trade to its NAV. Look at ACAS, parent of AGNC. Trades at a HUGE discount to NAV

  • pc4me58 pc4me58 Oct 16, 2014 8:46 PM Flag

    you continue to prove you have no idea what you're talking about

  • Reply to

    Just posted a 22 cent monthly dividend

    by pc4me58 Oct 16, 2014 4:21 PM
    pc4me58 pc4me58 Oct 16, 2014 8:44 PM Flag

    The best news is that they will post us monthly on book value

  • Reply to

    BIG NEGATIVE for m-REIT's !

    by dr_klumps Oct 16, 2014 6:14 PM
    pc4me58 pc4me58 Oct 16, 2014 8:10 PM Flag

    YOU ARE #$%$.. I happen to own Whiting Petroleum. It doesn't pay a dividend. I took a quick glance at WHX….you don't even understand what that is. It;s a liquidating trust . Wait until you see the income that gets thrown off at $80 oil. Or $70 oil. You are essentially getting your own principal back. That's why the share price has been steadily dropping. Did you pay low 20s a couple of years ago dopey? My recommendation is for you to short the snot out of AGNC and take the proceeds and invest in your liquidating trusts. By the way mortgages tightened to both the curve and swaps today.

  • Shorts should note that since the IPO in 2008 @ $20, they've paid out $28.91 in dividends. Their last book value was $26.26. Since 2009 their economic return has been 206% while their peers have returned 86%. Since their IPO they have returned 250% while the S&P 500 has returned 29%. These numbers are from their Q2 presentation, so 6/30 numbers. Obviously trading around $4 cheaper than book value. Great management.

  • pc4me58 pc4me58 Oct 16, 2014 4:02 PM Flag

    stop writing jibberish and keep shorting. One of the best management teams. Trading a big discount to book value. Which you will see soon as they announce their monthly book value. When it hit its high price it was trading at a significant premium to book value. They could collapse the entire company and pay out at least $26. Keep in mind their last book value was north of $26, they have a positve duration gap (you likely don't know what that means, so ask) and the 10 yr has rallied 30-40bp.

  • Deutsche Bank issued an alert on Gilead Sciences, Inc. Tuesday following news about Irish tax changes and Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ) comments.
    The alert concluded that Tuesday’s "stock reaction is overdone."
    According to analyst Robyn Karnauskas, "Ireland announced that they are closing the double Irish tax loophole which allows companies to pay taxes lower than 12.5 percent Irish tax rate."
    Karnauskas saw a "2 percent impact on effective tax and $2/sh impact on DCF" as a result of the tax decision.
    The alert also indicated that on "the JNJ call this morning, we heard nothing incremental that would affect our Gilead thesis," while "there was some Q&A around Olysio and Gilead’s franchise...the company continues to think that doctors will need multiple combos including Olysio and combos."
    Deutsche Bank maintained its Buy Rating and $142 price target.
    Gilead Sciences, Inc. recently traded at $97.93, down 3.5 percent.

  • Reply to


    by dr_klumps Oct 13, 2014 5:10 PM
    pc4me58 pc4me58 Oct 14, 2014 1:53 PM Flag

    No…the sector is trading between 10 and 20% cheap to BV. I think most every REIT has a much much smaller duration gap than the used to. Much closer to neutral and hedge. They will never get to 35% discount. But the entire sector is very very cheap. I do agree with those that think rates will stay low for a long long time. Deflation is the Fed's greatest fear. They cannot admit this, they also don't have many tools to combat it.

  • Reply to


    by dr_klumps Oct 13, 2014 5:10 PM
    pc4me58 pc4me58 Oct 13, 2014 5:29 PM Flag

    you're drunk.

  • Maybe they read the Seeking Alpha article and covered?

  • pc4me58 pc4me58 Oct 10, 2014 7:09 PM Flag

    I need to chime in on Bimini since you brought it up. Do you know why they went from an IPO of $15 to literally pennies? You should search the company history and might find it amazing. I knew several of the parties involved. I worked with one and I covered one. Avoiding slander charges I will tell you that I wouldn't have invested a dime with either. That said, they made an acquisition at the perfectly wrong moment in time. They blew the firm up, driving down the stock to mere pennies. One of the founders left to start the whole process of scamming investors at another REIT. He left his patsy to try to resurrect Bimini through reverse splits and financial engineering. They haven't paid a divident since 2011. And yet the stock still trades. I just looked and see it trades at $1.45 while book value is a mere 55 cents. Remember that there was a 1 for 10 reverse split so that from their IPO of $15, the equivalent is 14.5 cents. Smart guys indeed. I can see why you invested with them.

  • pc4me58 pc4me58 Oct 10, 2014 6:53 PM Flag

    That is the most ridiclous nonsensical post I've seen in sometime. I'm not sure you know what these guys actually do. You seem to think that M-Reits should trade like some ordinary equity. They don't. They trade with respect to book value, dividend rate, the term structure of interest rates, future expectations of rates, and of course the perceived value added by management. For years NLY was considered best of breed and traded accordingly. Then for awhile AGNC was considered by many to have the best management, and they probably did. When AGNC was trading up in the mid 30s it was probably trading at a 20% to 25% premium to book value. As an aside I find it amazing that we (the market) used to trade investment banks at 2 and 3 times book value. I recall Jimmy (the anti-Christ) Cayne of Bears Stearns once saying he would only sell Bear Stearns at 4 times book value. But just like M-REITs, an investments bank's assets go down the elevator every night and leave. And M-Reits have a lot easier balance sheets to understand and mark. But I digress. AGNC probably traded at close to the highest premium to book value because of its management. It's back was broken, as all M-REITs were broken when the bond market had that very fast backup in May of 2013. Fast forward to today. As far as I can see, the entire sector trades at a discount to book value. The last posted book value on AGNC was 6/30 and was $26.26. Given they have a small positive duration gap, and the 10 yr has rallied since then I'd bet that their book value hasn't gone down. If not they are trading at least a 14% discount to book value. They could liquidate their business and us shareholders would get a pretty fancy profit and all walk away. Smart guys like you have been saying that rates will rise substantially since the financial crash in 2008, yet it hasn't happened. You claim that M-REITs will have some huge crash and trade to yields of 15%-30%. Can't happen.

  • pc4me58 pc4me58 Oct 10, 2014 9:53 AM Flag

    Not sure you understand what a duration gap is. Most on these boards don't understand. I'm not being critical, just wondering. AGNC's duartion gap is very small. I've forgotten exactly what it is, but it's very short. It's on their website in the last presentation. So unless interest rates had a very fast move, AGNC's balance sheet will be largely unaffected. It's trading so cheap to book value that as investors we have quite a cushion. The morons like the fiber guy, the enema guy, the elvis guy…these guys don't have the foggiest idea what AGNC does. For all they know AGNC is in the widget making business. They aren't short because they don't have the guts to be short. I would guess though that those who are short really don't understand. Maybe they are looking at charts? BUt shorting a stock that is paying 11+% and is trading at a decent discount to book value, and run by seasoned suppior management is not a recipe for success. By the way, with the strong dollar, deflation in europe and japan, while china is slowing means that the Fed is further away from tightening. In the meanwhile, long rates could very well be headed lower.

  • Reply to

    On Debt and Assets

    by rdravin Oct 10, 2014 9:31 AM
    pc4me58 pc4me58 Oct 10, 2014 9:34 AM Flag

    reread what he wrote. he didn't say no tangible assets.

  • pc4me58 pc4me58 Oct 6, 2014 5:43 PM Flag

    you're a boob. If you mean that we've been riding the greatest bull market in history, you must mean since 2009 when stocks bottomed. That's 5 years. These are the facts from AGNC's own website:
    economic return to shareholders have been 60% in 2009, 32% in 2010, 37% in 2011, 32% in 2012, -12% in 2013. In 2014 year to date it's been 15%. Since AGNC's inception in 2008, the S&P has returned 59.3% while their REIT peer index has returned 65.4% and AGNC has returned 249.9%. Really? I think you have your conclusion backwards shorty

  • pc4me58 pc4me58 Oct 5, 2014 7:20 PM Flag

    You really are a dope. The numbers below are pretax for both AGNC and S&P. Apple to apples numbnutz. You and Mr I lost $1700 over 5 years in AGNC when it's paid more than $23 in dividends should start an investment club. So read this as you've done before and tell us that 1) AGNC is lying, or 2) you really don't understand what you've read. It has to be one or the other.
    From their presentation on AGNC's website we see that their last five years of economic return to shareholders have been 60% in 2009, 32% in 2010, 37% in 2011, 32% in 2012, -12% in 2013. In 2014 year to date it's been 15%. Since AGNC's inception in 2008, the S&P has returned 59.3% while their REIT peer index has returned 65.4% and AGNC has returned 249.9%. Management has demonstrated that they are among the best in the business. So I ask anyone reading this; Do the facts speak for themselves perhaps better than some naysayer yelling "sell". I hope internet_enema is short a lot of AGNC.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

22.96+0.12(+0.53%)Oct 22 4:00 PMEDT

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