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pc_alreadydead 165 posts  |  Last Activity: 5 hours ago Member since: Jul 9, 2013
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  • pc_alreadydead pc_alreadydead 5 hours ago Flag

    " But for the commodity consuming parts of the economy, a slide in the cost of resources is just another tail-wind to add to falling unemployment, rising wages and persistently low inflation. This is why the US stock market trades at a premium to the rest of the world and why resource-hungry Japan continues to look so interesting.

    For many companies and individuals, reduced input prices and lower transport and heating costs are a positive that will keep a lid on inflation and give the central banks on both sides of the Atlantic pause for thought. It’s not too late to get on the right side of this trade. "

  • pc_alreadydead pc_alreadydead 11 hours ago Flag

    " Crude oil prices are down 15% in the past month and trading at half the price that prevailed in June last year.

    Gold has plunged to a multi-year low. Most analysts expect these trends to continue. The implications of god, gold and oil being kind to India now and in the near future means the festive season - India's annual high point of consumerism - will likely see consumers feeling they can spend some serious money. "

  • pc_alreadydead pc_alreadydead 12 hours ago Flag

    "US strength, emerging market weakness and excess capacity after years of over-investment are feeding on each other in an unstable dance which works like this: falling commodity prices support the US recovery and push the dollar higher and commodity currencies lower; this drives commodity wages down and reduces energy costs, further bolstering US growth and bringing forward higher US rates; up goes the dollar again, which raises funding costs for emerging markets and forces them to retrench yet further. It’s a powerful feedback loop which could go on for years."

  • pc_alreadydead pc_alreadydead 12 hours ago Flag

    'Commodities rout brings global winners and losers': The sell-off in commodities is terrible news for emerging market countries which depend on high resource prices

    Tom Stevenson -- 01 Aug 2015

  • pc_alreadydead pc_alreadydead 12 hours ago Flag

    " Shell said last week that it is shedding thousands of jobs and slashing its capital spending by 20pc. Anglo American and Lonmin came to the same conclusion the week before. Companies are belatedly acknowledging that they face a prolonged downturn in prices and they are finally facing up to the consequences.

    That’s bad news for commodity producers and companies dependent on investment in the sector. It’s also terrible news for emerging market countries whose economies and current accounts depend on high resource prices. Between the mid-1970s and the mid-1990s, inflation-adjusted earnings for basic resources, industrials, chemicals, oil services and machinery companies went nowhere. It is hard to see why this pattern should not be repeated.

    But for the commodity consuming parts of the economy, a slide in the cost of resources is just another tail-wind to add to falling unemployment, rising wages and persistently low inflation. This is why the US stock market trades at a premium to the rest of the world and why resource-hungry Japan continues to look so interesting.

    For many companies and individuals, reduced input prices and lower transport and heating costs are a positive that will keep a lid on inflation and give the central banks on both sides of the Atlantic pause for thought. It’s not too late to get on the right side of this trade. "

  • pc_alreadydead pc_alreadydead 12 hours ago Flag

    " The Carlyle Group, one of the top private equity firms on Wall Street, has seen one of its funds sustain hefty losses because of the washout in raw materials, the Wall Street Journal reported late Friday.

    The publication, citing unnamed sources close to the firm, said that Vermillion Asset Management—which Carlyle purchased 3 years ago—has seen holdings in its flagship fund plunge from about $2 billion to less than $50 million.

    The report stated that Carlyle's co-founders, David Rubenstein and William Conway, invested "tens of millions of dollars of their own money in the fund," only to see it evaporate in a wave of losses and redemptions, the WSJ added.

    As a result of the losses, Vermillion's founders departed the private equity giant at the end of June, sources told The Journal. The firm is pulling back from investments in key markets like oil, natural gas, coal and agriculture, the report added. "

  • pc_alreadydead pc_alreadydead 17 hours ago Flag

    "These declines suggest a broader deflationary trend, which was corroborated by gold’s renewed slide after barely treading water despite the heightened fear and uncertainty that historically has helped the precious metal."

  • pc_alreadydead pc_alreadydead Jul 27, 2015 1:25 AM Flag

    "As I have argued in these columns previously, gold is more a currency than a commodity, and its value depends on the public’s perception of paper money. Illiquidity heightens demand for currencies (to pay back loans, for instance) and raises their value relative to gold, depressing the metal’s price."

  • pc_alreadydead pc_alreadydead Jul 27, 2015 1:17 AM Flag

    " The contagion from the crisis in Greece and the crash in China to other major securities markets so far has been relatively muted. The far greater impact appears to be in commodities, which have fallen hard this week. Losses have been across the board, from crude oil to corn.

    And while there hasn’t been any single, strong linkage from the commodity pits to the tumult in Athens and Asia, the decline shouldn’t be ignored. Like a falling barometer, sliding commodity prices can often signal an approaching storm.

    Over the past four sessions, nearby Nymex crude oil futures plunged over $7 a barrel, or 12%, to $52.33, the lowest since mid-April. Copper, the metal with a putative Ph.D. in economics, took a 3.6% hit Tuesday and was off 7% in the past three sessions to a 52-week low of $2.4510 a pound, while Freeport-McMoRan (ticker: FCX ) fell a similar amount and hovered just above the 52-week high touched in January. Iron ore entered a bear market, losing 20% since its June 11 high, according to Bloomberg, while aluminum, lead and platinum also slumped. Grains and soybeans also took a tumble, so it wasn’t just industrial commodities getting hit.

    These declines suggest a broader deflationary trend, which was corroborated by gold’s renewed slide after barely treading water despite the heightened fear and uncertainty that historically has helped the precious metal. As I have argued in these columns previously, gold is more a currency than a commodity, and its value depends on the public’s perception of paper money. Illiquidity heightens demand for currencies (to pay back loans, for instance) and raises their value relative to gold, depressing the metal’s price. "

  • pc_alreadydead pc_alreadydead Jul 27, 2015 1:06 AM Flag

    " Although it’s impossible to pinpoint the source of the deflationary winds, there is little question about the direction they’re blowing.

    While the media’s attention has been concentrated on Greece, Renee Haugerud, who heads the commodity-oriented Galtere hedge-fund group, has been feeling folks have been looking at the wrong places. While she admits that there are no data to back up her “gut” feel, it appears the selling of commodities is related to China’s stock rout.

    But Haugerud is quick to dismiss market rumors that China’s authorities are dumping commodities to pump cash into its stock market. More likely, she says, traders who have gotten hurt by the slide in Chinese stocks may have had to liquidate other assets, such as commodities, to meet margin calls. That’s been exacerbated by suspension of trading in hundreds of stock, some 162 issues in Shanghai and 514 in the even more speculative Shenzhen market. When you need cash, you sell what you can, not what you want to sell.

    Moreover, she continues, commodities provided the collateral for loans to fund other activities, including stock purchases. Crude oil, copper and, to a lesser extent, soybeans have been liquidated to pay back those loans. That process is perhaps three-quarters over, Haugerud adds. "

  • pc_alreadydead pc_alreadydead Jul 27, 2015 12:39 AM Flag

    "China accounts for almost half of global copper demand, 70 percent of iron ore consumption and vies with India to be the top gold consumer."

  • pc_alreadydead pc_alreadydead Jul 27, 2015 12:38 AM Flag

    "Similarly, in coal and oil too, China’s share in global consumption is very significant. In coal, in fact, data from British Petroleum Statistical shows that it is about 50.5 per cent. In crude oil, China’s share is about 12 per cent, next to the US which consumes about 20 per cent of the global demand."

  • pc_alreadydead pc_alreadydead Jul 27, 2015 12:35 AM Flag

    "The consumption boom across many metals in the past two decades was driven largely by China. A World Bank report shows that China consumed about half the 91 million tonnes of metals produced globally in 2012. This was up from a mere 4 per cent in 1990."

  • pc_alreadydead pc_alreadydead Jul 26, 2015 7:46 PM Flag

    "Gene Munster, managing director and senior research analyst at Piper Jaffray, explained his bullish research report on Apple. He said the current iPhone 6 currently sells for 72% of its retail value 265 days after launch. The previous iPhone 5S only sold for 60% of its retail value 265 days its launch. According to Munster, the stronger resale value indicates that demand for the new iPhone remains very strong, which is an important indicator for future iPhone demand. Similar results were found in China as well. He expects the next iPhone - presumable the iPhone 6S - to have higher margins, which will help increase profitability."

  • pc_alreadydead pc_alreadydead Jul 26, 2015 4:31 AM Flag

    ""On a constant currency basis, Apple's growth rate is more than 30 percent -- Google is only 18.""

  • pc_alreadydead pc_alreadydead Jul 26, 2015 4:29 AM Flag

    ""They did not say that in the press release, but in the conference call Apple mentioned that their profits would have been 9 percent higher than reported on a constant currency basis, the way Google reported and others," Chowdhry explained. "That is, without taking the currency fluctuations, Apple revenue would have been $53.73 billion and the EPS would have been $2.54. And the guidance that they gave, $49 to $51 billion, in constant currency that would have been $53.4 to $55.6 billion. What it means is, Apple's numbers are not bad!""

  • Reply to

    Why did AAPL become part of the DOW?

    by arbitragem Jul 25, 2015 1:36 PM
    pc_alreadydead pc_alreadydead Jul 26, 2015 1:46 AM Flag

    "The analyst sees the potential for Apple to quadruple its total addressable market (TAM) over the next five years. "While the largest opportunities - TV and Autos - are further out, we see Apple expanding its total addressable market (TAM) near-term with Watch and Services, like Apple Pay and streaming music. In total, we see a $3.4T TAM by 2020, up from just under $1T today," she said."

  • Reply to

    Why did AAPL become part of the DOW?

    by arbitragem Jul 25, 2015 1:36 PM
    pc_alreadydead pc_alreadydead Jul 25, 2015 5:09 PM Flag

    To test this property regarding size or market cap, let's assume homogeneous composition for both companies, X and Y.

    Using the same numbers from above, so that

    Y x 80 = ( Y + Y + Y+...+ Y + Y + Y ) = X

    I think company X and company Y will have the equal chance of 50% market cap expansion, because literally everything is identical between them.

  • pc_alreadydead pc_alreadydead Jul 23, 2015 10:33 PM Flag

    Well said!

  • Reply to

    Ricciolo’s tweet

    by pc_alreadydead Jul 19, 2015 3:45 AM
    pc_alreadydead pc_alreadydead Jul 23, 2015 10:29 PM Flag

    "This is significant given lighter-than-expected handset sales from Android flagships, which we see as further evidence that more consumers are choosing mobile computing platforms rather than handset features."

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