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ConocoPhillips Message Board

pcmountaindog 35 posts  |  Last Activity: Mar 31, 2015 10:35 AM Member since: Jan 22, 2002
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  • Reply to

    Travel centers open more LNG fueling lanes

    by cancerdotcom Mar 30, 2015 9:24 PM
    pcmountaindog pcmountaindog Mar 31, 2015 10:35 AM Flag

    It is 100 percent certain that NG as a transportation fuel will take hold.

    The issue is not if NG engines will become a viable part of the market place but what role WPRT will have in the market. I can tell you right now that if the board does not replace this management group WPRT will not be part of the NG success story. While there are difficulties right now with this market, WPRT completely screwed up while they had a wide open road ahead.

    To their credit the HPDI system and it's components are good work but it is painfully clear that the people running WPRT are technologist not business people. There comes a time when a business must bring in the management needed to bring the technology to market and control the costs of the venture. This management group can not and will not do it.

    No matter how big the market becomes or how much growth in volume WPRT sees, they will just squander the money on some other item which has no place in the market. The past history of this management group make it very clear where the road leads. It is obvious why the market is walking away from WPRT stock.

    At these prices Cummins could pick up WPRT with the loose change in the sofas in the break rooms and they still show no interest. Why, too many reasons to list.

    Any company which loses money for 15 years under 1 CEO and the board will not remove that CEO, that company will go nowhere.

    20 years from not Cummins will be a much bigger company with higher profits and with a larger market cap then today. That will not be the case for WPRT. If you want to be in the engine space CMI will be a much better bet.

  • Reply to

    Natural Gas Spread to Collaspe

    by wayne_lamontagne Mar 23, 2015 11:42 AM
    pcmountaindog pcmountaindog Mar 25, 2015 1:07 PM Flag

    Totally wrong again Wayne, there is nothing beyond you speculation that the gap between diesel and NG will start to widen again. Your OPINION on this is worth nothing. Only the market prices in 6 months will be real and you don't know the future.

    By the way there is hot or should I say cooler news own climate change.

    Serious global cooling has been hidden for 100 years by a polar bear conspiracy operating out of Iran to hide real cooling data. First they removed the Shaw, Mohammad Reza Pahlavi now this.

    Disturbing evidence of global Cooling in Death Valley California. The next ice age is upon us.

    Death valley
    July 10, 1913 134 degrees
    July 10, 2014 118 degrees

    Massive cooling of 16 degrees in just over 100 years.

    August 3 2014, Death Valley was a full 15 degrees cooler than its previous coolest.

    It has been reported that the CIA has been investigating the possibility of Iranian polar bears buying up land around Death Valley as they expect it to get too cold in Iran to operate their terrorist activities. There are additional reports they plan to move in and oust the National Park Service and setup a global cooling home base in Death Valley.

    Bring it Wayne.

  • Reply to

    how long till we reach land

    by yakturd Mar 25, 2015 1:14 AM
    pcmountaindog pcmountaindog Mar 25, 2015 12:59 PM Flag

    Look somewhere else. Many other solid investments will give you a 5-8 percent return. Even a 10 year US bond paying 1.5 percent will generate more earnings then WPRT. You will earn nothing on a company that has been losing money for 15 years and will continue to lose money for the next 5. There is a growing possibility that WPRT won't last 5 more years. There is know real way to know when oil prices will go back up enough to make the spread between NG/diesel high enough for NG engines to sell. If oil prices stay down for more then 2 years, WPRT is in big trouble and they show now signs of dealing with the issue.

    If you are a speculator, you might be able to pocket profits on volatility. If that's your game then play on and I wish you all the best but, if you are a long term investor who wants to buy a company with growing sales and growing profits then stay away from WPRT. At this point there is no profit in sight for 5 years.

  • Reply to

    I don't know much, but here's what I do know....

    by mgdavis56 Mar 20, 2015 8:49 PM
    pcmountaindog pcmountaindog Mar 23, 2015 12:09 PM Flag

    How do you know it's organic, whatever that means? Unless you know the source of the ingredients and the production I suspect you are falling for a marketing scheme.

    Organic stuff in stores, what a load of nonsense. My grandmother might have grown organic food in here home garden and none of it ever wound up in a store like Whole Food.

    Wake up people you are taking sucker bait.

  • Reply to

    I don't know much, but here's what I do know....

    by mgdavis56 Mar 20, 2015 8:49 PM
    pcmountaindog pcmountaindog Mar 23, 2015 12:07 PM Flag

    "how does God feel about them changing food that He created?"

    Are you kidding with that line of garbage? The corn your Great Great Great Grandparents ate was noting like the corn from 1000 years ago. People have been modifying the food that "God" created since they crawled out of their swamps and they have been doing it long before Monsanto and DuPont came along. I have seen the old 3 inch cobs which are hundreds of year old in the Grand Canyon and sites in Southern Utah where I live. That's not the same as what you recent ancestors ate. I guess God is #$%$ at them too for modifying "his" food.

    With regard to what past groups have done to native american culture, that is unfortunate. But as a not native american, one who was born in Europe, I hope you don't include me in that context. I have never known any Native American so I haven't done anything to any of them or you in particular. In addition I did not vote for those who are in office. So, I have to live in the same world you do and I was not born with anything. In many trips through the Grand Canyon having interactions with those of the Hualapai nation, I have felt the vibe that they didn't want me there, I never did anything to them. Why so unfriendly? Hope I'm wrong.

    People might be right in their negative view of Glyphosate but I doubt it. It only blocks the production of certain enzymes required for photosynthesis which animals don't have. Before people throw rocks they should do a little research but instead they just get in line behind a sheep who is saying what they think they want to hear.

    So people want to go back to growing food, grown on backyard compost piles, good luck feeding 5 billion people that way.

  • Reply to

    WPRT sad !!

    by notforutosee Mar 18, 2015 5:45 PM
    pcmountaindog pcmountaindog Mar 19, 2015 3:21 PM Flag

    You are reading too much stuff published by the management. Go to the investor section of the WPRT web site. Nothing but talk of how great things are. Where is the balance sheet. Where is the cashflow statement. Talk and more talk about none existent growth and BS EBITDA numbers. Real GAAP accounting shows the burn rate and the path to going under.

    Healthy margins, are you kidding, they have been losing money for 15 years. Sales growth? Where is the revenue growth? Where are the real earnings. Under these conditions it is unlikely that there is any hope of real earnings in 5 years.

    You call this healthy. Enron was in better shape before ti went away.

  • Reply to

    only place to get a true look

    by rbtsherman Mar 13, 2015 1:20 PM
    pcmountaindog pcmountaindog Mar 17, 2015 12:54 PM Flag

    California and EU are stressed to the point of zero growth.

    California's pension payouts alone will consume everything they have. Business in CA is being taxed right out of the state. There just won't be enough capital to make a big switch to NG transport in the government or private sector for at least 2 - 4 years.

    Europe is complete socialist mess. Zero interest rate policy and they still can't create any growth. So there is also very little capital available in Europe.

    China is the only hope for WPRT and it too is slowing. In addition, the Chinese will take WPRT apart at the seems in business deals leaving zero profit. If WPRT were to go under they could just pick up the technology and go forward as if WPRT never existed.

    The worlds major industrial countries are flirting with deflationary pressures which are a disastrous condition for WPRT. With no world wide growth WPRT will not survive. At this point, the world has plenty of available energy at a moderate price and no industrial engine to consume it. With each passing day the possibility of WPRT being gone in less then 5 years grows.

    As for HPDI and spark, I have to look at that one. It makes no sense to me to have both. Perhaps some diesel helps with cylinder wall lubrication.

  • Reply to

    only place to get a true look

    by rbtsherman Mar 13, 2015 1:20 PM
    pcmountaindog pcmountaindog Mar 16, 2015 6:05 PM Flag

    I'm not seeing the same use for HPDI as you are. If you convert a diesel there is no spark to ignite the fuel and NG will not compression ignite like diesel. HPDI is the only way to get ignition with current production cylinder heads. If an engine builder it already tooled up with cylinder heads with no spark plugs they need HPDI. The only other option is to design a new cylinder head which can mount a spark plug.

    On a new engine get rid of the expensive injectors and go to spark. The HPDI dual fuel injector offers no additional efficiency that I know of. It's only needed to inject a small amount of diesel to compression ignite which intern lights the NG. If there is spark it's not needed.

  • Reply to

    only place to get a true look

    by rbtsherman Mar 13, 2015 1:20 PM
    pcmountaindog pcmountaindog Mar 15, 2015 12:55 PM Flag

    So Cummins, the number one engine builder in the world decides WPRT had little to offer and drops them, possibly. Then the entire company will hang on China and Weichai will know it. What bargaining power with WPRT have? China is WPRTs only real hope and the Chinese will do what is in their best interest. They know WPRT has limited cash an is in a very bad situation. All they need to do is squeeze them for 2 years and it will be over for WPRT. It's obvious that most people just don't understand how precarious the situation is. WPRT has noting to bargain with.

    The congress could demand air standards which diesel can't meet but, that won't happen until we are in a robust economy. That is more the 2 year away if we are lucky. They can't make environmental demands with GDP growth hanging from a thread. In addition Cummins has made large investments and keeps meeting the clean air requirements the FEDs demand.

    All the big players know this and know how limited WPRTs resource are. There is no reason for any player to make a bid for WPRT because they just need to wait and watch the price of the assets fall.

  • Reply to

    only place to get a true look

    by rbtsherman Mar 13, 2015 1:20 PM
    pcmountaindog pcmountaindog Mar 15, 2015 11:56 AM Flag

    At first I though HPDI was an interesting idea, not any more. We have to face the fact that WPRT does not make heavy Iron and will never have the resources to do so. Casting Iron heads/blocks, forging crank shafts, that's not going to happen. So without Cummins and Weichai WPRT has no engine to build on. I just can't see putting HPDI on a new engine. On a new cylinder head, spark will be a lot less expensive then custom injectors. Even if HPDI was a good idea if Cummins doesn't want it then the idea is dead. WPRT needs Cummins and Weichai, and will have to concede to their demands.

    The current oil situation is really bad news for WPRT. At this rate even if everything went perfectly, it would be 2017 before volume could turn. At the rate WPRT spends money it might not make it. It looks like the window may have closed.

  • Reply to

    Dead Canary & WPRT

    by wayne_lamontagne Mar 12, 2015 3:09 PM
    pcmountaindog pcmountaindog Mar 12, 2015 7:42 PM Flag

    The NASA satellites al have distorted mirrors like the Hubble telescope so it's really just the opposite.

    Wayne, I hear the Iranian global cooling polar bears have a list of environmentalist names. Please be careful. Can't trust them. Anyway with all the warming crop yields will be going up in all the northern regions. Look for high inventory of beer and scotch due to all the grain available. Drink up. My home is in the rocky mountains up around 8000 feet. The warmer winter is really nice and my heat bill is way down. Don't forget to send the folks in Dubai a thank you for their efforts in making lots of snow and ice helping to keep temperatures down. There will also be a protest at Cummins engine on this Sunday. You should make it a point to join in and get them to stop building diesel engines. Throw some rocks at the front gate. I also hear they are feeding the bears.

    Just a note, when you stop, I'll stop. People don't want to hear either of us. I will only respond to what you post first. So to all, it's all up to Wayne. Bring it on or be sane.

  • pcmountaindog pcmountaindog Mar 11, 2015 6:43 PM Flag

    Revenue has fallen off. An acquisition in 2014 when it could not afford a purchase. Slow growth? This company is 15 years old. Losing money for 15 years. Bad guidance for 15 years. The NGV window was wide open last years before oil came down. That was the time to get costs under control. Now it's too late, The market is not in their favor. We don't know how long oil demand will stay down. It could be 2 years. 2 years that will shut down demand for NG engines. The spending cuts were too late and too small.

    There is no growth in the context of revenue and negative earnings. With all the spending they would need to ship 5 times as many engines and that won't happen. Even if they did, they would then increase spending like in the past 15 years. Management is throwing out fake numbers like they aways have and promising more bogus EBITDA. Next year, next year, next year. Don't forget positive EBITDA is not profit. It a management term for negative cash flow. GAAP or nothing. If it's negative post it. Don't hide behind fake EBITDA which is not profit. That 43% YOY growth is totally bogus.

    WPRD is dead money.

  • pcmountaindog pcmountaindog Mar 11, 2015 10:37 AM Flag

    You are ignoring the history of WPRT management expanding before profitability. The only think they know how to do is expand and spend money. Expanding R&D on products which don't have the volume to turn a profit. You are making a dangerous assumption that management has any regard for share holders and real profit. Loot at the last conference call. You would think the company is making more money that apple. This company could easily be gone in 5 years. The board needs to do something and they are running out of time. There may be many good long term investments involving NG but WPRT is not one of them.

    The same people are in charger, why would anything change?

  • Reply to

    Could jump to $7-$8 range today on earnings

    by marriagenewsnow Mar 9, 2015 10:03 AM
    pcmountaindog pcmountaindog Mar 10, 2015 6:05 PM Flag

    You and me both. I didn't sell before it was clear that all the EBITDA talk was just that. Now it's too late. Every quarter it's the same more guidance tied to fake numbers. The market has made them pay and they won't be back until the can post real revenue grown and most important of all GAAP earnings. Nothing else is gone going to move WPRT stock.

  • Reply to

    Could jump to $7-$8 range today on earnings

    by marriagenewsnow Mar 9, 2015 10:03 AM
    pcmountaindog pcmountaindog Mar 10, 2015 6:01 PM Flag

    Earnings? What earnings?

    A 5 dollar stock losing 50 million every years. Oversold?

    You would fit right in working at the Federal Reserve, you could print all the money you wants.

  • Reply to

    halted

    by seito15 Mar 9, 2015 4:13 PM
    pcmountaindog pcmountaindog Mar 9, 2015 4:44 PM Flag

    It's a great report. WPRT will have EBITDA profit in about 10 years. What could be better then that? Revenue may be down but that's not too bad. The less they sell the lower the loss. If they stop selling all together, revenue will be zero but, they can also cut costs to zero and then the will have a real GAAP profit from the interest on the cash that is left.

    It's all good.

  • Reply to

    Good Investing #2: Cash Accounts

    by wayne_lamontagne Mar 4, 2015 9:32 AM
    pcmountaindog pcmountaindog Mar 9, 2015 4:37 PM Flag

    I get that, and it's not a problem, It's the mechanics of how derivative trading works. Brokers don't have all the share on hand to balance all these trade. It's just no big deal. The point is that trading on margin is perfectly fine for those who know the risks and are doing their research. For those who will never borrow money to buy then sure, a cash account is fine. There is noting wrong with having a margin account if you may wish to borrow to buy shares when the time is right. This stuff trivial compared to the problems being created by the pyramid scheme the FED is running. How come Alan Greenspan is not bunk mates with Bernie Madoff. The were both trying to do nothing more then create more money for everyone.

    Wayne, if you're still around my inside sources are telling me that Dubai is going to expand their indoor ski mountain. They are going to help with global warming by making it an open air mountain so that the snow they make can help cool things down. Speculation is that they might buy WPRT engines to drive the compressors which make the cold and the snow. My sources tell me they will make extra snow and ice to cool the engines. Climate change problems are all under control. Now we just need to figure out how to deal with the Iranian polar bears who will try to attach the skiers.

  • pcmountaindog pcmountaindog Mar 8, 2015 4:55 PM Flag

    Yes, and J P Morgan kicked his #$%$ out and then build GE on the work of Tesla.

  • Reply to

    Good Investing #2: Cash Accounts

    by wayne_lamontagne Mar 4, 2015 9:32 AM
    pcmountaindog pcmountaindog Mar 7, 2015 12:42 PM Flag

    Wrong again. Short sellers play an important role in preventing overvalue conditions. They provide balance in a free market. You do believe in free markets?

    This just in, new reports indicate global warming will result in larger agricultural output. In addition seals have been seen marching in Washington to lobby congress to make military strikes on polar bears. A seal homeland is a vital component of world peace and the irradiation of polar bears is the first step in the process. Seals are also demanding warmer conditions as they don't have access to oil since the polar bears are controlling oil supplies. It is has been discovered that polar bears are really operating out of Iran in the hopes of cutting world oil production and stopping global warming and to start the next ice age.

    Some one has to balance what you are putting out.

  • Reply to

    List of New Products / Revenue - 2015

    by volaughlen Mar 3, 2015 12:59 PM
    pcmountaindog pcmountaindog Mar 4, 2015 7:08 PM Flag

    Only 1 problem. WPRT never stops spending on R&D so the ROI never happens. 15 years of R&D and noting to show for it.

    All we get is guidance which also never matches reality.
    GAAP Profitability where did that come from? WPRT doesn't speak GAAP only EBITDA
    BEFORE income tax - depreciation-amortitization. We will make a profit as long we don't pay the electric bill. What is that?

    I have great EBITDA too, all I have to do it not pay the bills.

    Stay away from this company. Even a 30 year US bond pays 2.5 percent which is 2.5 percent more the WPRT.

    Show us the money, not the report on guidance. Tomorrow never gets here.

COP
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