People took exception to my post on another thread regarding compression numbers for CNG from CLNE. I will start with the fact I posted 2 errors. The electric motors for a 4 hose fill up system at 40 gallons per minute total are not 25000 but 2500 HP. The electrical service needed for the motors is not 3 mega watts but 2 mega watts.
Now I have been attacked as being a CLNE investor. Not true, I have not position in CLNE. I currently hold 2015 shares of WPRT with a total loss of about 24000 dollars. I understand it’s not a large position. Having said that let us concentrate on the energy loses with regard to the movement of Natural gas in the CNG state. In addition this is just for disclosure and my loss or gain is irrelevant to the discussion of the cost of CNG/LNG distribution needed by WPRT. So, please stick to the numbers and forget about CLNE.
People, this has ZERO to do with CLNE. 4500 PSI CNG is the same no matter what company's compressors or motors put it in a tank.
This is very important in that it is part of the overhead of the deployment of CNG and it effects WPRT and all of us who are share holders.
Numbers again for a 4 bay station which might need to fill 4 class 8 trucks at 40 gallons per minute.
4500 PSI CNG pressure
2 mega watts of power to run the compressors
2500 HP worth of electric motors to drive the compressors
5500 CFP compressor capacity total
500,000 dollars pre mile for 10 inch gas line installation
millions in investment to deploy this station assuming the power and gas line is available
Now, this came from CLNE. If it’s wrong then what is correct, because that’s all that matters. THIS HAS ZERO TO DO WITH CLNE. These costs directly effect those of us who are WPRT share holders and understanding the numbers is critical to our knowledge of this investment.
Now, if the numbers are wrong, I want to be corrected because it’s important to our understand of the deployment of this fuel.
Watch the presentation and you will change you mind just like I did.
Most small city gasoline stations do not have access to that much power. You miss the point entirely. These are the direct recommendation from the people who sell the compressor systems. An interstate trucking stop might be miles from a gas line.
City line pressures are only 50 PSI. CLNE is the major provider of the fueling infrastructure. I am not an investor in CLNE. WPRT has nothing without the CLNE fueling systems. Look and the numbers and try to prove them wrong based on pressures and fill up times. You will be surprised just as I was. The compressor are huge.
Don't be a sap do some research like I did and understand why this fuel is slow in deployment.
Watch the video on when to use LNG V CNG at the CLNE web site. This is critical information which must be known by those installing the fueling systems. LOOK AT THE REAL NUMBERS.
Look at the raw numbers. CLNE sells the compressor systems which will fill the WPRT tanks.
And don't make assumptions. I do not own CLNE I only hold WPRT. Watch the video. Your statement is 1/2 brained. These are real numbers. The pressures are enormous. Educate yourself or lose money. Filling a tank to 4500 PSI will take hours or you have to deal with the heat of compression causing a fill up with less pressure when the tank cools. A fast fill up without huge CNG holding tanks will require high power compressors to pump a full fuel load. With out the stuff you can't get people in and out. LNG will take a few minutes but CNG is another story.
Don't attach people unless you can post numbers or sources to prove it.
This is complex stuff, invest without knowing and you will get killed. This is part of the reason I am down 30,000 dollars. I didn't do enough research.
To those who want to buy into WPRT. Do all the research before you invest or you too might be down 30,000 dollars. VERIFY
See for yourself. Go to the clean energy fuels web site. Under products and services select trucking. Down on the page under TRUCKING RESOURCES you will find a link to a webinar on when to use LNG V CNG. I too was surprised by the raw numbers but, a home air compressor only pumps to 125 PSI and will consume 6 amps of current at 120 volts. That's 720 watts of power. CNG is 4500 PSI, that's over 35 times the pressure so it makes perfect sent that to provide the compressor power for 4 stations would require 25000 HP. The only other option would be to have large CNG tanks on site an keep them full at 4500 PSI but, their pressure would quickly drop as people pull fuel. Don't question the numbers check for your self. I would have thought the same until saw the presentation by the supplier of the fueling components and their recomendations.
Everyone investing in WPRT should watch this video.
CNG - LNG are 2 completely different fuels when considering refueling.
Gas/diesel is pumped into a tank at almost no cost for the fueling company. Nothing more then a simple electric motor driving a pump. Not much different the pumping water.
LNG is another liquid transfer and not all that expensive.
CNG -- for a station to add just 4 fueling units an investment of 3 million is required and it needs a 10 inch pipe line which might be impossible to install. A station might not be able to even get the 3 mega watts of electrical power, needed to run the 25000 HP electric motors needed to drive the compressors to load 4500 PSI into a tank. I am not making this up you can find this at clean energy fuels web site.
Nat gas is not an easy fuel to commoditize and we are seeing the difficulty in reaching profitability for WPRT.
Nat gas as a transportation fuel will make it but, it might not be profitability to stock holders.
Well, thats just not correct. WPRT has been around too long to be put in the incubator class for sure and like all business, cash flow to profitability is a just as critical as the product which is being developed. It is painfully clear to me that WPRT needs a better CFO and staff to successfully handle this part.
I did a lot of study before buying into WPRT and it wasn't enough.
I will agree with all that Nat Gas and WPRT will have a long future. People/(the market) will find a way to use this fuel in the years to come but and this is a big one, --- while the fuel will be used, it may never be a profitable venture. By the time management gets their cut there may be very little left over share holders. The obstacles for CNG are too many to list. Like the need for 3 mega watts of power, a 10 inch gas line at 400,000 a mile to install, 25000 HP worth of compressors just to install 4 refilling units at a fuel station. Fast refill of CNG is not possible. This information is directly from a clean energy fuels presentation which is intend to make people understand what it takes to manage this fuel in the CNG mode. LNG has it's own issue and is only usable in large capacity systems which can be run around the clock.
I am starting to think that the best I my hope for is to cover my 25000 dollar loss and move on. I am having a hard time making the numbers justify my hold possition. At this time with the numbers we have it's difficult to determine what is a reasonable price and multiple to base it on, assuming we will ever have a profit we can use to generated a multiple.
I can only recommend that anyone looking to invest in WPRT put in a minim of 100 hours of study so you understand as much as possible about how this fuel is managed. The is one speculative play which has burned me good.
Very simple answer.
When management stops spending and start selling product. WPRT is going nowhere until revenue increases leading to profit. The move to the plus side could still be 18 months away.
Correct and the same for all the people who keep filling up the planet with more new people who want fuel. In addition every one of our 6 billion humans who will burn all this stuff also only care about their future profits. I will be 100 percent honest. I only care about myself and my profits.
A famous person once said "I'm the only cause I'm interested in"
Stick with the technical issues related to WPRT and the nat gas industrial.
You were on the right track yesterday and you have relapsed.
Here it is November and I look out the window and see snow on the ground from 3 weeks ago. Bring on the warming. I may install a heating system to melt the snow on my driveway just like my neighbor did.
It's being manipulated? You have some proof that the SEC needs to know about.
What a load of B S.
I'm down big time because of management floating too many share not manipulation.
Well then I suggest moving to high ground because energy use of all kinds is not going down.
If it's going to get warm, so be it. Bring it on.
Another suggestion would be for you to move to the middle east and protest in the streets to get the Saudis to stop pumping oil. Then, if you are still alive take your road show to Brazil and Venezuela. I'm sure they will stop energy development on your command.
Take a look at the parking lot at JPL, you will find more 4WD SUVs the electric cars. As Josh Willis stated "todays projections are not perfect". He is correct and I would add they are just plain stupid.
And, don't have any kids, tell Al Gore not to have any more and to park his private jet.
Join the real world or start swimming.
Well, we finally agree on something. A very rational post.
Only one problem, The OPEC nations have huge debt loads just like every other nation. They don't have as much control as everyone believes. They have massive payments to make as all nations do and can't just turn off the valve beyond a certain point. Their goal is to try to get the maximum amount for their commodities over the long haul and that is difficult. The goal is not to pump oil but to pump money. Ship just the right amount as to get the maximum dollars possible. Pump too much and the price will fall and the dollars in over 5 years will drop. Pump too little and revenue can stall in the short term. The Saudis may have the largest oil field in the world but it's still only a small part of the global system.
We are so far past the point of over supply with Nat Gas that Iran won't be much of a factor on the global market. Our problem is moving Nat gas not finding more. Over time that too will be dealt with. Sooner or later the Nat Gas supply will stabilize with the market. It might take 5 years but it will happen.
Now, if only WPRT management and it's partners can figure out the market and their own production. To make a profit in Natural Gas China must figure out how to transport it and use. China is the key for Nat Gas and the buildout is underway.
You are in trouble if you believe that. You think freight trains and long haul trucking are going to run on solar or wind? Ocean container shipping with diesel engines as big as houses burning 3500 gallons of fuel per hour are going to run on solar power? You can't possibly be serous.
You are also not looking at the long term demand with developing world markets becoming consumers. It's going to take every bit of energy the world can come up with. Wind, solar, Nuclear, oil, gas it's going to take every bit of every single one of them to provide for 10 billion people world wide.
As for anything but light cars in short haul local use there will never be batteries which will be able to handle long haul transportation.
Electricity is just one component and in no way will it replace any of the other energy fuels.
Also remember there are a lot of people who hold the attitude of no wind turbines blocking the view where I live. I have first hand experience with that one working for the UT state energy department. I have seen huge numbers of wind turbines installed just east of Evanston WY. All these additional forms of power will do is increase supply, lower price and cause more demand.
Management just floated new shares at a low price. Cost of tooling up is very high. Sales growth has been slow. In addition, oil reserves have grown holding diesel prices at reasonable levels Nat Gas prices must stay down in comparison to diesel or this will not make it.
WPRT does not make engines. It make the Nat Gas control systems and tanks which managed the fuel for both LNG and CNG. The engines are still made by Ford in the case of a small truck and Cummins for the big trucks.
Nat. Gas transportation fuel is in the beginning stages of it life. WPRT has stated it hopes to make a profit in 2014. It's been losing money for years as it goes into volume productions.
This is not a computer company, it's heavy iron with a lot of up front costs to meet production. It could still be years until profitability we just don't know.
I am long WPRT, holding, and down 30,000 dollars. Now, I agree it has a future and I will hold. There is however a lot wrong with your speculation. Number 1 is the expense of production and the overhead of moving Nat gas to it's fueling stations. In addition, if engine production were to climb to the numbers you suggest, then the demand will drive the fuel cost up taking away it's advantage. So I see the up side being capped by the overall fuels market. It is my view that diesel is still the long term better fuel.
With the problems our government is having with revenue generation, I would not factor in any positive effect from MAJOR subsidies. This is a long haul heavy trucking and rail fuel for LNG. CNG for municiple fleets which can be fueled slowly over several hours. I don't ever see CNG as being a replacement for the diesel I use in my light truck and certainly not a mass market auto fuel.
My hope is to double my investment in 10 years for a compound return of 7 percent. With the conditions being what they are, it's a long shot now that I have to cover substantial losses due to management devaluing my investment.
400-500 per share,,,,,,,,,,, what revenue do you think they need to cover that price?
If I was to buy something, bury it and come back years later for retirement funds, it wouldn't be WPRT.
Best of luck to both of us.
Why do you keep pushing this #$%$?
No one cares about climate change. I guess no more oil is going to be used because everyone is worried about climate change. All the worlds drilling rigs will be shut down and current wells will be capped.
On second though, that's good. Demand will go to zero for oil fuels and the diesel I need for my truck will be almost fee.
Can't you find another place to push this #$%$. Why not run for president? Then you can declare yourself emperor for 8 years and shut down everything. And of corse you will ground air force 1 so you can save the fuel. You must have a dozen prieus cars or do you ride a bike around and use nothing which, is also good as it will keep costs down for the rest of us.
This is what you need to do
Step 1 - go to a library and start reading Wealth of Nations
Step 2 - keep reading it until you are dead.
Where did that come from. WPRT is not a hydrogen company.
Did you have a conversation with the CEO or something? Did I miss a news story? Has WPRT made any statements about Hydrogen fuel?
If there are no injectors then it's a spark ignited system with an ignition system like an old style gasolene . This is a second type of Nat gas system. When building an engine from scratch Nat gas can be injected into an air intake manifold. You are right in that there won't be an injector on each cylinder.
My original question was the cost of the HPDI (high pressure direct injector) system which is dual fuel, not specifically a cummins question. This system allows for the conversion of conventional diesels with out machining a new expensive cylinder head for a spark plug. Just replace the standard diesel injector with the dual fuel injectors along with the Nat gas fuel system and controls.
Yes, they do and it's a great piece of technology. It's a dual fuel injector. One component loads the cylinder with NAT gas, then a small amount diesel is injected to cause combustion. Without this dual fuel injection process ignited by the small amount of diesel, the cylinder head would require spark plugs and an additional ignitions system.
Just wondering,,,,,,, how did you see it working without injectors,,,,,, carburetors?
This part of WPRT is very good and it's what they need to be concentrating on. The have lost their way a bit.
This is the part I wan to know about. Single fuel diesel injectors on my truck can can go 500 each. I suspect that the HPDI injectors could be 2500 each and a Cummins motor need a total of 6 or 15000 dollars, they could be even more since they are a very low volume production part.
Westport has some very good stuff which is why I hope to hold for 5 years or more.
Any smart fleet buyer is going to demand to know what this stuff is going to cost.
That is a very difficult question to answer for us. It would take someone like Mark Mobius of Franklin Templeton who has been investing billions around the world for many years to provide answers. Big fund managers travel to places like China on a regular basis. Another is Jim Rogers. Regular reading of their posts can help us keep up with these kinds of issues. I do not invest in China directly I always use a well known fund manger or I buy an ETF index. It's just too far away and the laws of business there are unknown to me.
There is risk here for WPRT. Smart management must take the steps required to manage those risks. Sadly from the moves we have seen from Westport management, their skills are in question. I would agree with rbtsherman that at this time it would not be in the best interest of Weichai to screw this relationship up.
China is approaching the crossroads to being a much more important world wide supplier. Piracy will not be in their best long term interest. Global markets will only put up with so much.
Buy and extended warranty.
That's not a very good answer. Heavy Iron needs to run fro 1 million miles. Transparency here is important. If and only if,,, as I doubt the possibility the WPRT doesn't make it. I could be stuck with a Warranty which is worth about Zero.
You comment "both of these options satisfy this" does not hold water in this context.
Having trucking comes with heavy depreciation costs and we need to know what those costs are. While injectors are bit different the spark plugs, they are still parts with moving components and subject to failure. Diesel fuel rail pressures are often above 25,000 PSI. The HPDI has a diesel component. Clean fuel is essential as one load of dirty fuel can take out the entire system.
Having diesels at this time I could not take the chance with this technology. It will take big players to make this happen.
Spare parts costs must be known.