"the spark ignited stuff is less fuel efficient than the 2.0 stuff" HPDI is about one thing and one thing only. Being able to run NG on diesel engine design which does not have spark plugs in the cylinder head. Is HPDI 2 better then HPDI 1 perhaps, but it has nothing to do with being even close to NG only as compared to diesel. The dual fuel injector has nothing to do with power over NG only. It's there to cause compression ignition since the engine does not have spark. Without the duel fuel injector there would be no way to run NG on older diesels. There would be no way to ignite the fuel. But, the market is not going to install them in old designs with this current diesel price. On a new engine HPDI offers us virtually nothing. The diesel component of the HPDI system is not enough to close the gap between power difference between diesel and NG. It's there because there is no spark for ignition.
HPDI is a dead product. It's continued development and production overhead is doing nothing but pulling down what little cash WPRT has left.
WPRT management continues to work over time trying to figure out how to waste what little cash it has left on products that have no place in a market where NG has no advantage over diesel. HPDI died when the gap between diesel and NG converged.
Just when have you ever seen this management group deal with negative cash flow? WPRT has only one hope and that is oil moves back up in 18 months and there is no sign of that. Any longer and it won't have enough cash to make it. Book value keeps moving down toward zero.
Forget opinion and politics and look at the degradation for the balance sheet. It's all in the numbers and the number are not in WPRT's favor. WPRT faces at least 3 years of losses for a total of almost 20 years. A company can't survive losing money on shrinking revenue for that long.
As for HPDI 1,2,3, .... what ever. There is no place for it. It's spark engines or nothing. No reason to buy a new engine which is ignited by the diesel component of the HPDI injector. New engines must be built with cylinder heads equipped with spark plugs. HPDI is a product which will never earn a cent. It's time to shut is down.
Just wondering, what color are the helicopters which are chasing you. Just yesterday black helicopters were over my back yard. Then this morning before the sun came up a racoon took some corn out to the street and gave it to a guy in a plain white van. I guess it's over for me if they find some monsanto DNA is in my garden. A Monsanto lawyers will probably come back this afternoon with papers telling me I can't eat that corn. I wonder if the raccoons will still want it or does Monsanto owns all of them too?
How will patience be rewarded when WPRT loses money on every engine it sells? We could be looking at low diesel prices for 3-5 years. WPRT doesn't have that much time left. If they don't cut cost and production to reach positive GAAP earnings they are finished. Even ZERO would be great but, no company can survive losing money every quarter for 15 years. WPRT couldn't borrow even and junk bond rates in it's current state. It can't pay interest on loans with borrowed money. It's not congress, it can't print money. If every city in in the US mandated NG busses and every public school did the same it wouldn't be enough market share for WPRT to turn the corner with these margines.
None of this matters, WPRT couldn't make money before and it can't now. They might as well be trying to sell ice at the North Pole. Cash and book keeps falling. They totally blew it. They scaled up just as diesel prices were read to fall and then did not react. One day NG engines will have a place but by then WPRT will be long gone.
It's not about glee. The management of WPRT and it's poor decisions have cost many people a lot. Part of our job is to prevent others from investing in such a poor company. This one won't be around much longer. Am I happy about the misfortune of those who have lost a lot of money, no and I'm one of them. I will be happy if I can prevent even 1 person from losing even 1 dollar on WPRT.
You won't hear that from Drew because he is off hiding in a hole somewhere when he should be telling people to stay away from WPRT.
Well, we have heard that before. You don't actually believe anything that comes out of this company do you? At this burn rate they will be out of money in less then 2 years. The only value in the company is the cash on the balance. Book value is on the way to ZERO. There are no future earnings in the next 5 years so there is no value there. WPRT looks to be on the way to selling the inventory and closing the doors. I'm sure Demers will be leaving for his second home in Aspen Co to enjoy the rest of his life.
XD was July 23 pay is Sept 1. I was the owner of record after expiration.
The date of record has passed for dividend. The option I hold has not been called and XD is passed. I sold the contract after XD.
But,,,,, always important to factor in dividend before selling a covered contract.
When the price spiked I got out. Like you say i was buying at 9 and selling when I though it was over prices at 12-13.
I agree with you that 9 seems reasonable but, since the merger I have not done a serious analysis of the total company. I need to do that before i can consider buying again. Don't know if that 9 is still a reasonable number. At 9 I wouldn't be as concerned if the dividend got cut.
And why does 4 percent dividend make sense when CY has to borrow to pay it? I might consider buying at 9 but I don't like the fact they are paying a dividend with money which does not come from earnings. That's not a good policy. At some point they will be force to cut the dividend if earnings are not consistent. CY does not look good after this latest acquisition and at 12 dollars. They are spending more then is coming in which is never positive from an investors point of view.
With the current cash flow, a 6 percent dividend will not hold. At this price it's a sell if a person needs the income from that dividend. Years from now it will likely be fine when energy gets back to normal. Those who have the assets to hold will do okay but I need some income. So I sold deep in the money calls as a back stop an will be out at expiration. If the price drops will I buy back and sell deep in the money calls again. Not sure, it's looking dangerous.
Good point but, are you willing to bet you financial future on it. Will you overweight you allocation on something you hope will happen.
There is a different between investing and speculation and speculation is often based on what we hope will happen and less on what we can measure.
It's been over 100 years and nothing has provided even 1 percent of what oil and atomic energy are delivering. Can I build a future and pay my bill on what might happen? That's not a good bet in my view. There roulette wheel might pop up in the black 5 times in a row, are you willing to take that chance just like some new power might be discovered. Physics, chemistry and science suggest otherwise. We will likely see slow increment change, not earth moving events in energy.
By the way, the human race will be dead and gone before any power is derived by fusion. Humans will NEVER figure out how to over power the strong force.
What do you base that one. Do you see higher revenues from the merger with matching earnings? I don't see it yet. With GDP going sideways, CY could be slow to move for a long time and they can't keep paying out a 3.5 percent yield with negative cash flow.
Just wondering what you are seeing and where there revenue will come from. Where are all this micro processors going to go in this slow economy.
I didn't like this merger. If there is one thing I hate it's a company with negative cash flow. And borrowing to pay dividends is not a safe thing in my book. I have owned CY in the past but, now that it's a bigger company with more products from a merger, it would take a lot of hours to reassess it's possible value.
All I know is they are losing money while paying out dividends. Doesn't look safe. I'm out until I can get a handle on what this merger adds or subtracts from share holder value.
One side of a put or call has no risk other then the up front contract cost. The other side can have huge loses. If you agree to be on the receiving side of a put, you must have enough cash to pay for it when it gets sent your way. If you are required to deliver shares from a call which you don't have, a merger or other news even can come with a big loss.
It's speculation at best. Covered calls mean you already have the shares if a caller requests them but, you don't make much profit on them. I don't usually see more then .75 or 1 percent writing cover calls.
No free lunch out there without risk.
Your point is rationale but, uncovered call or puts requiring large margin and a specific thing. You are not talking about investing but rather short term speculation. That's fine if you can handle it and know the risk but call it what it is. Any contract position which expires in 30 days comes with a 50/50 risk of losing everything you put up due to some short term news event, earthquake, a military strike on Israel, OPEC doing something stupid like flooding the market with product etc. The long term underlying instrument may be fine but the option contract will not be. All I am suggesting is caution and reasonable margin.
I think 70 by year end is wishful thinking. I see a dividend cut coming which means a 10 percent price drop in the stock. That last dividend increase looks like a bad move to me. Now, I like COP and in 10 years this low oil price could be a short term event. If you are willing to hold COP you should be fine long term but, don't make bad sort term assumptions about the current dividend holding for the next year.
The Saudis have a pyramid scheme welfare state just like every other country. They can't run the country at 40 dollars. The Saudis need 70 to keep their pyramid growing. Then need 70 to keep borrowing and making payments on their debts just like every other country. Everyone country with a deficit spending model is in the same boat. With world wide GDP at zero, this system is not working.
Who cares what the Fools site says?
But I am selling out with a deep in the money call position because I feel COP can't keep paying a 5 percent dividend with this oil price. Borrowing to pay the dividend has consequences.
I can't look in the future and know if oil will rebound soon enough for COP to boot it's cash flow so it can pay that 5 percent. Current numbers suggest the dividend must be cut. I can't stay in under these conditions. It's a good company but in a market where condition dictate cutting costs and the dividend is one of those costs. Stay in until the cut and it become a double hit. If the prices drops a lot then it might be a long term play for when energy prices move back up and they will move back up but, we don't know how long that will take.