To give you specific numbers which support my thesis.
Data points: pps before ER, after ER and currently. Thesis is that I you meet all 3 criteria you are up if miss all 3 or meet just one you are down and if miss only one, specifically earnings you will be near wash to up less than the winners. And of course the degree of miss is relevant, for example panw reducing significantly its losses is akin to a tie on the third critera or almost a beat given its improvement. Anywy here are the numbers:
cybr: 5/7 ER 61.57 to 66.15 now 64.27. Up fom per ER as beat all 3
FTNT: 4/20: 34.63 to 38.08, now 39.43, up as beat on all 3
VDSI: 4/28 24.58 to 26.23, now 26.61 up as beat on all 3
CUDA: 4/27, 46.12 to 43.43 now 38.58, missed on all 3
We all know what happened to qlys and keyw, missing on 2 of 3 or all 3, DOWN
BEAT ON 2 OF 3, specifically good guidance and revenue grown, losing money
FEYE: 4/30, 41.30 to 43.31, now 45. Big money negative with negative cash flow, essentially a wash but up
PANW: beat on 2, improved money losing significantly, predicted yesterday it would do better than feye and so far it has, up 6. Don't know about future of course but bet up.
Above just rough estimates and factors but as can be seen if miss all 3 or 2 or 3, pps is definitely down from pre ER level
Beat on all 3, price is definitely up from pre ER level
Meet 2 of 3, betwixt, but because panw showed significant improvement in losses, criteria 3, than feye, should perform better.
Agree with the thesis or not. Come up with your own. Buy this thesis made sense of the post ER pps action and could have made you money if you acted on it. I did with fanw and am green, already owned 3 of the others including qlys but my criteria at least helped me make sense of that debacle.
Anyway, other than splk and blox today which will complete the ER season, that will be the end of my thesis except to see how it performs in the future till next ER season.
Thanks and you to. See you at 50 however long that takes but expect it soon especially with todays street reaction to the debt offering.
I agree shocked me. Guess the street likes the demand of an extra 200 million and the terms
But I do not like the fact feye has to prebuy stock for shorting and derivative so the buyer can hedge. Too complicated for me.
Is it really necessary for you to give us a blow by blow description of your alleged trades. Your becoming as needy as bosie. If you need to get attention, once is enough and then just bank your profits quietly. But that is just my wish, maybe others are interested in such detailed neediness.
I thought Feye had no debt. So how can it be refinancing what did not exist.
But it does provide working capital and probably takes a seconday off the table
And the street obviously likes the terms
You are essentially right. Both are taking market share, pillars in the sector, have great revenue growth, excellent new products coming on line and overall all appear to be go to companys in the sector.
The one differential in the ER, and I think the reason panw did so well pps wise post er over feye, is that Feye has negative cash flow and increasing or stable losses (depending on whether you use gaap or non gaap results) whereas panw has signififantly reduced its losses and has a huge extra amount of cash on hand.
To me, criteria 3 of my thesis, is a major reason why feye did not appreciate as well as panw did post ER. We shall see how long this disparity lasts. But don't get me wrong, as I've said repeatedly, I'm a believer in feye and a buyer. But don't minimize the fact that panw is handling its losses and reducing them whereas feye is nt but I do agree with grader than one reason is panw is a more mature company and feye may be there soon.
Just look at its debt offering which is looking more attractive now that the pricing is in. First, there was over demand leading to an additional 200 million in debt, second a great interest rate and third a relatively good non dilutive conversion price. The street obviouisly liked it given today's pps action. THe one thing I don't like is that it appears overly complicated with that prepaid feye liability which will result in shorting of shares and deriatives. But for the street to react so favorable to the debt is very positive.
Wrong. Before/after market and in fact intraday really doesn't count. The close counts. But so far, per my 3 criteria, and especially the significant reduction in losses, new products and overall positive outlook, panw is doing very well today and is performing as I predicted yesterday when the pps was actuallyi down. Per my 3 criteria, it had excellen revenue growth, maintained excellent guidance and reduced significantlyi its losses which would equate as I said yesterday to a positive pps action and would be better thn feye's which maintained/increased ints losses and had negative cash flow.
Believe or don't believe in my thesis. But it has provided some rationale for the disparite pps actions of the cybers post ER. I don't pretend its perfection but I has provided a way to anticipate the pps trends of the reporting companies and has held water with the last test coming up tonight wit blox.
Given the suggestion that panw is taking business away from checkpoint, i'm less bullish on it now and it was too expensive to buy anyway. But my thesis caused me to add ftnt which beat on all 3 criteria and so far i'm happy with that buy. Was the only way to explain the qlys debacle and why a bunch of the cybers went down and stayed down substantially post ER including cuda and keyw and to a lesser degree rdwr. Also explained vdsi reaction although that company pps is weakening again but still up over its ER price.
Anyway believe in the tesis or not. But it does explain the disparate pps reactions and so far no one has offered an alternative. Had investors followed it, especially on the missers they would have saved money. Bt it is of somewhat limited value as it is a reactive indicator not a prediting indicator so one will still incur/miss the initial ER reaction as the thesis depends on the ER.itself.
Just my 2 cents but if able I like to provide a reason for events, explain it and then readers can agree or disagree.
Lets be honest. Per my thesis, there are 3 predicted outcomes. And yes, it deals with the immediate reaction to ER and then less so the post ER trend. The ones who missed on all 3 or only met one had immediate negative pps reaction like feyw, cuda, rdwr and have stayed down. The ones that hit on all 3 immediately reacted up and have stayed up like checkpoint, ftnt, etc. As of now haven't those two groups still held trend??????
If you miss on one criteria you will range or go up but less than the ones that hit on all 3 but there are degrees. And yes FEYE hit on 2, missed on the money losing and had a medicore pps reaction to the ER. Now its story and some events are helping Feye but it has had much less of an impact than the others. Likewise, cybr, up significantly per my criteria on ER reaction, now kinda stabilized but then It had a big run up.
Now please don't try to be a revisionist on panw. All of this was explained a week ago or more. Yesterday, if you will recall I indicated that panw would do much better because while it did miss on the make money criteria, unlike feye, it substantially reduced its losses and maybe even had positive cash flow, that wasn't specifically announced. So yesterday, as the pps was down AH, I stated that panw would react better because its losses were significantly reduced making its miss on criteria 3 less pronounced that Feye. RIGHT???
So come on. I don't pretend this is perfection nor will perform exactly the same. BUt it did give some rhyme and reason to the pps reaction of cybers post ER and so far it has held with the last one up tonight, Blox.
Believe in my thesis or don't. But yesterday I said panw would show strength and was better than feye because of its significant loss reduction and indeed I WAS RGHT. In fact, an argument can be made that because of the significant reduction in losses, unlike feye, it actually tied the third criteria. But certainly that action justified a better pps reaction than feye.
WHY woiuld it??? I assume your talking about an OEM while sigma is software. Which other 3d company are we talking about???
Hey Grader, was my thesis right or was it right. Based on my 3 criteria I postulated that panw would be up substantially today. And in a down market it was. Only one more cyber, blox, to report this season and we shall see if my 3 critieria thesis holds. As I said yesterday, the substantial cut in losses panw reported yesterday would lead to a good pps reaction today and so far it has.
I would never repeat your or any post intentionally. Have no idea where you posted that info but not surpising I missed it as your drivel had reached such a level that I put you ignore, only reading some of your posts when I needed comic relief. So any headline post of yours will never be seen, some adds would simply because yahoo lets me know that a response exists.
If you are going to start actually adding something to the discussion and analysis rather than just your inane drivel, I might eliminagte the ignore.
But thanks for the info. If Oppenheimer was the buyer as you indicate that is signifidcant as per the website oppenheimer was already the number 2. So this buy, assumiung its not reflected yet on the website means oppenheimer is a huge owner. Shows their faith and nice that its a USA company. Maybe we might finally get some recogniziion. BUt given the expansion and the engine and Lockheed articles, looks like there are some major sales on the horizon and i'm hoping beginning this year. To repeat, I expect arcam sales to predate engine mfg by about a year to allow for mfg of the printers, delivery, installation, testing and training.
As far as the search, I don't speak Swedish so if the article is in Swedish its beyond me. Would have thought arcam woiuld have provided an English translation as it knows it has a lot of USA interest.
So now we have two institutions making major commitmnts to arcam. Good sign. Also interetign that this latest treansaction, which is almost 10% dilution (8.8) did not cause the pps to go down as papa arcam is up so far. Another good sign.
NEW DATA: Apparently arcam just issued an 8.8% share dilution directed to an institution for a 3% weighted time premium but a 4% current price discount to pay for expansion and other corporate purposes. So far nice to see that papa arcam's pps actually went up so at least Swedish investors view this quasi secondary as positive. I still wonder which amerian institution bought out the Swedish govt institutional shares. We will know that I guess on the next institutional disclosure date which is what the 15th of the month???
I'm still positive as arcam must know that demand is coming for all this additional capacity and the engine and Lockheed updates just recently tend to support that.
Now lets see if we can keep this thread analytical and informative and avoid some of the drivel posters who troll this board.
We essentially agree. My only caveat is that panw improved its loss picture significantly whereas feye stayed the same or improved. THat was the big difference. But I agree with you on expensiveness which is why I would only consider options. Found it intereting tha panw specifically reported a lot of beats over checkpoint and cisco. But your point re apples and oranges is sage and one of my problems as i'm not savy enough to really evaluate the tech superiority. But looks like both panw and feye are in th top tier. Also fntn is looking like it as is cybr.
I am highly amused over all those bosie posts where he shouted that keyw was so much bette and superior than cybr and still has not admitted his error. Ditto with his prediction of feye to 38/39 after the debt offering as he shouted yesterday.Myself I never predict pps as I don't pretend to be that smart. Only trends. And it was clear as I've sad for months that cybr is better than keyw which until this ER had negative revenue growth, a killer in a mo mo growth sector.
Good luck to you, i'm happy with my basket even qlys which I still don't understand.
It woiuld seem to me that all the major IT companies, orcl, cisco, intel, msft, etc need a major cyber entry to be relevant. We shall see
Unless the pricing of the debt is real bad, or the market tanks, don't expect 42 from Feye, much less bosies 38/39. LOL But based on the ER, and diminished losses (don't now about cash flow but has 1.2B cash) expect panw to do better than feye, but feye will do better than the losses like cuda, rdwr, etc per my critieria. As I said, my criteria predicts panw will range or go up.because it hit on 2 of 3 critiera, but since the losses were much improved, and cash fow may be positive, panw pps will do better than feye per my criteria. Might be a long range otm option candidate.
Well grader, next to last cyber has reported, only blox left. And its pps has been moving significantly for a 2nd tier company, we shall see.
But I was impressed with the panw ER. It did a feye, with a stronger ER. On my 3 criteria, great revenue growth, intact guidance but lost money. BUt and this is a big but, while Feye essentially continued to loose the same amount of money, Panw improved its losses markedly and the CEO offered a more positive outlook.
Per my criteria, I expect panw to be up and better than Feye but not stellar like the ones who beat on all 3 criteria. Overall, I thought panw ER was a tad better than feye and we shall see how the pps acts tomorrow. To repeat, range to up better than feye is my guess.
Did not see a clear cash burn, negative or positive cash flow result unlike feye where cash flow is decidedlyi negative, but improving. However, cash on had with feye is in millions vs panw 1.2 billion. Won't need a secondary for a long while. Plus panw is offering some interesting new products.
But still agree with you, panw is too expensive especially for a basket. Cannot buy enough shares. But impressed enough, if I can get a good price, might buy some cheap otm options for a long period if theiy are chap enough to catch any significant panw appreciation. Will think on it.
My two cents. What did you think of panw's ER and its significant reduction in losses and huge revenue growth and good market outlook.?????
You forget, per my critereia, neither feye nor panw should have a great move up because of its money losses and with feye negatve cash flow but panw's ER should indicate a better pps action than feye becauwse outlook better and money losses improving. We shall see
Doing just fine in by 3d plays clown as i'm green on ddd and arcam, and took some profits on hot shares as you lost money.
Addiction. Liar. Anyone can just read the posting history to see who has the addiction with all those bosie reply posts.
We agree in large point but disagree on your nuances. Several cybers, including cybr, ftnt and checkpoint can have good revenue growth AND make money. They are not mutually exclusive. That's where the bosie shout that ALL cybers have poor balance sheets was so pathetically wrong. Many actually have good balance sheets, make money and have good revenue growth. Not feye. But feye does have good rev growth and an excellent story which helps somewhat. I disagree on proofpoint, it had a relatively poor eR and got hurt pps wise on ERs. And what I don't understand is with all your positive take on feye, you sold a large portion of your shares. As Bosie will attest, where I believe in the story, I tendd to ride a stock up and back down, especially if im still green till the street recognizes the good story. But he keeps trying to pretend im red on my 3ders while im still green. Just like he lied,, shouting that I lost money on that cybr scaredy cat sale when I was and stated that I sold those at a profit. Where I am ashamed of myself is being so proud I got back in with a little profit as the pps went down to 60 and I could have done better. LOL. I admit when i'm wrong. Bosie tries so hard to accentuate my bad moves to negate all his bad ones. In addition to hhis feye to 38/39 with the debt announcement, and qlys to 60 and cybr to 50, remember all those positive brags and shouts he made about keyw which he shouted was the best cyber. He is excellent comic relief. LOL
But did you at least see where I got the short comments I made. I did not like the complexity or that short provision in this offering at all. And will lke even less when the interest payments contribute further to the negative cash flow.
Yes, of course, certainly, in your own mind. Just like your shout that total was an American company. Now that was classic. And you keep showing such accuracy daily.
But in your own mind, you are always right. Keep up the neediness, it is amusing to say the least.
I know you will, its your neediness and obsession to spend all your waking time here posting drivel on this board and ultimately losing money as the pps goes up when expoting begins. Pathetic but some people are just pathetic
Keep your neediness to occupy ever thread with drivel and ignorance. It does amuse me