But some of those shipments if not most were after or near closing of quarter and thus will not have a ER impact. No$$$$$$$$$$$$
Yes, I have thoughts. i'm skeptical sadly. A few CCs ago rene said no new technology till mid 2016. Last CC he was negative on new printers or products with new technology per se, including hi res/hi speed, and said that arcam was focusing on tweeks to improve industrialization and commercialization and not brand new products Suggests that while capacity and speed might improve, and personnel training to enhance the effectiveness of the printers, no real new technological developments which would support waiting to buy printers are on the horizon. Hope you can provide rebuttal to this conclusion, but I doubt it as Rene was pretty clear on the cc.
sure as APC cashes in not only on arcam's printer expansion but also on all those other companies expanding with metal laser printers as apc revenue only sells 50% inhouse and 50% to all those other metal 3d printer manufactures. Just wish we were selling more printers as some of these new laser companies are. But that will come as ebm gets more parts to make.
I agree with you and I will. But, having just listed to the CC, I am amazed at how little info Rene provides, either because of preference or customer demand. Wa going to ask a question on deliveries and whether any of the GE order had sh9pped but when rene stated that he couldn't provide any info on the avio order I figured it was hopless to figure out why we didn't get at least 16 deliveries. The orders are another issue and not in arcam's control. Also punted on all potential aerospace parts in the mix except to reiterate the 9x blades. Punted on the leap question. Oh well now lets see how the pps reacts as the quarter was not that bad and earnings/income were way up.
Boy was I wrong and we shall see how the pps acts. So far badly in Europe. Guess it was asking too much to be right 3 times in a row. But I was right that the subsidiaries improved with apc doubling and apc up nicely as well on my prediction that rd would be up. Don't apologize for sales estimate as that was a pure guess in light of absolutely no news.
BUT where I was dead wrong, and that through all other estimates off, was on deliveries. We had 17 in backlog (excluding the GE 10 which we knew would not be all/part delivered this quarter. So unless customers wanted a delay, I cannot imagine why we did not get al least 16 deliveries as we did in q4 and the corresponding 176 or more with subsidiary increases that we did in q4. I am shocked that we did not get at least the 16 delivered. I also thought we wouild get one or two from the ge order and one or 2 from q1 sales like we did last time, but that was pure speculation. However, expecting the 17 from non ge backlog to be delivered was reasonable and that surprised me and killed our revenue.
I am also extremely disappointed that there was no guidance, information on our pending aerospace position or news on hi res/hi speed technological improvements. Hope that will be remedied in the CC but given Renes typical closemouthness on the CCs, either because that is his preference or customers demand it, does not look like we will get any info or guidance.
We shall see how the pps reacts but so far its bad in Europe. Glad I was able to sell all my q3 hot shares and some of my q4 at 24 and above as I expected a blow back on the pps after ER as per usual but did expect a better ER. Although this one was not bad with a nice increase in revenue and income/earnings, I did expect a lot more deliveries and more sales.
Oh well, we shall see and there is another quarter.
Your right, sales were disappointing. But that was not the major problem as sales do not directly relate to revenue. But I do have a major mea culpa to offer, guess asking for 3 correct predictions wa to much as I was spot on for q3 and q4 as my posting record shows.
But the real shock here, and why we were light on revenue was due to the deliveries which was my major error and shock. With a backlog of 17 (excluding the 10 GE order which we knew would not be all/part not delivered this year, we should have at least gotten 16 deliveries to equal q4. I do not se any reason we did not get at least 16 deliveries which was supported by the backlog and would have equaled at least the 176 in revenue we got for q4.
Heck if I figured that we would be limited to 14 deliveries I would have adopted the 2q revenue of a little more than 150.6 based on deliveries of 14 in q2
That was my main error. All the rest was right on. Doubling of apc revenue, uptick in di santo, increase in rd and building new facilities.
But the deliveries were abysmal unless there is an explanation which I hope will be explained on the CC.
Agree with you. Been touting arcam's execution and prospects for months Respect how rene forsees needs and meets them like getting their expansion completed just as demand increases. Now lets see some of those printers for experiment and r and d develop new ebm needs to spur more printer sales. 3d manufacturing is beginning.
Thanks for responding. How about joining in and giving us your insight
I think the revenue prediction is very reasonable. Just look at all those articles suggesting that both medical and aerospace production is nearing and that so many companies are experimenting with 3d including EBM.
But more to the point, sales are not relevant to earnings. Its the subsidiary sales and the printer DELIVERIES. We had the biggest backlog in history, 27, going into q1. GE order represented 10 of the 17, but they said they would not take total deliveries. But the remaining 17 were probably all delivered plus 2 from q1 sales which equates to 19 delivered and I think we will get one or 2 of the ge order delivered. So that is 20 or 21 delivered. . Plus APC has revenue from an additional 5 atomizers
Now last quarter, with 16 deliveries we earned 176 vs my predicted 180. Close wasn't it??? So with additional revenue from the subsidiaries and 4 or 5 more printers delivered, 230 doesn't sound to outlandish does it. Now if only the pps continues moving up. Been selling a little of my hot shares from q3 and getting a double . Of course won't touch my investment shares. I refused to sell any at 22 2 like some others. I think arcam, given its execution, continues to be undervalued even at this price
For the 3rd consecutive time I am offering my Earnings Report (ER) predictions to promote arcam related discussion. Moreover, it will give my fan club a chance to actually show that they have better insight and analytical skills Be a change from the misquoting, lies, misrepresentations, and just plain needy responses. I invite any and all to add their opinions, but with analytical and insight full discussion and not just pain bald statements and bluster.
Last two predictions were right on. 3rd quarter was exact and last quarter was very close. Was totally right on deliveries as all in backlog were delivered with no customer holds, revenue was close at 180 vs 176 and backlog/sales was conservative as I predicted 15 sales vs actual of 19. Of course these figures exclude the 10 bulk order from GE that we all knew about.
First some general comments. I expect strong revenue growth from the subsidiaries, increased r and d and lower cap ex as the expansions are accomplished. I admire Rene for competing his expansions just as demand develops. Overall, I like how the company is progressing and hope we get more guidance on development and technology improvements. Here are my predictions.
REVENUE: We have had no announcements, so i'm guessimating based on my knowledge of arcam and analytical abilities and general insight. I PREDICT REVENUE OF 230 OR AN INCREASE OF 51%.
SALES: Without any bulk sales, I predict sales of 14 printers, an increase of 4 over last 1st quarter sales of 10 or a 40% increase. Reasonable considering history and aero moves
,DELIVERIES: : Backlog was 27, 10 from GE which will not all be delivered immediately.. Like last time, I assume 2 from this quarter will be delivered. I guess that 2 of the 10 GE printers will be delivered to help them experiment and explore new parts and production techniques. All rest of backlog will be delivered. SO DELIVERIES WILL BE 20 to 21 PRINTERS
BACKLOG; 20, consisting of 8 remaining from the GE order and 12 q1 lef
Hope so, the 3d sector needs some positive manufacturing news. Wish arcam and ebm were getting more ink. But while i'm only holding arcam, due to the poor performance and execution of the other 3ders latterly, I hope for the best throughout the 3d sector. Will expose Gary for deserting the sector too early even though he uses his 3d letter to pump his other non 3d stocks. LOL
But I expect the 3d sector to show its worth and hope that those in the know are finding more uses for ebm and arcam printers besides just the avio blades.
Thanks for the info. Nice to see some articles applicable to arfcam and ebm and not just generic or laser related. BUt if you intreted there is a lot more info and postings re Alcoa and rsi, it new subsidiary, on the ihub board. Lots of intereting data. Wonder when we will see some printer buys although maybe we had some in the first quarter as there were not announcements. Will make my upcoming ER analysis more difficult as no news and a big portion of the GE order will not be delivered this quarter.
WOW, wrong again. You shouted that Yellen would raise rates in nov 2014 after the elections then wiggled to Feb 15 when you were proven wrong and then continued to wiggle wiggle wiggle after that but unlike me did not get the dec rate increase right. You wait till you see stocks move like sdrl and the 3ders (despite all those posts where you said aram was going down to 10 and below and were wron) and then try to pretend that you bought and were rising the tide. Despite no mention of buying and your posts that you alwaiys post your buys. I've caught you on this before. So all those bragging attempt then of course silence as the stocks turn and since you have not posted selling, which you claim you always do, your still holding the stocks as they go down. And how about those cybers, the ones you shouted would out perform ever stock in 2015. WRONG AGAIN. Just like all those oil lies I documented using your own needy postings. BUt your best claim was on the arcam board when you shouted how great your gpro shout was when the truth was you lost your shirt, your maximum stop loss, shorting at 7i0, covering at 75 as it went up to 90. Never seen such affront to claim that was a great trade as you lost your max stop loss and then months later tried to lie about it. That is typical Bosie , the great lying clown. LOL
Just read about ssys new printer witih 6 nozzles and able to print multi portions of one part at the same time in various colors and printers.. Been also reading about other companies, new and old, coming out with new technology and supposedly the HP printer is coming out this year. All that hype and now over a year later no substance but that hasn't stopped the media..
But where is any new printer or technology upgrade with ourC arcam. Hi res/speed project ended a long time ago. Multipe CCs ago, rene said it would not happen till mid 2016. But we are here now. Would be nice along with all the good execution and ERs we have had that Rene this cc will finally set forth some guidance on technology advances and opportunites for other 3d parts besides blades. But then Rene is the true closed mouth executive perhaps because the buyers demand it. We shall see but its almost time for my ER preidctions
P S answering yourself now. Lost all your believers which is why you disappeared for so long after I documented all your lies and errors. Tried to prove yourself right again as the market and arcam went down but as I called you on all your shouts the market and arcam are back up again. But of course you fool shout that this is an official bear market. LOL Only red flag is for anyone to believe anything you say LOL Enjoyed the comic relief clown
WRONG LIAR, yet again. You were wrong on so may topics as I stated in my prior post in this thread Now you lie and show your ignorance again. You shout that we are officially in a bear market. WRONG as we all know. Correction maybe, by obviously not a bear market. Just lke the EIA is not a company. LOL.
Next lie. Yellen was not supposed to have raised rates by now. Every thinking individual and pundit have opined that rates will be slowly raised and certainly not by now. Just like you were dead wrong in saying rates would raise in 2/15 as I called you on. I;m calling you on iyour bear market and raise by now ludicrous shouts. PDB right again. You enjoy recalling my post Why ot recall my post in Oct 2014 when I called you on your fed rate raise shout after the election and then your wiggle to Feb 2015 when I was saying the earliest the rate would be raised would be June 2015 and most probably Dec during the Christmas diversion. you posted wrong so many times on that as I was right.
Screaming red flags in the market, clown. THe only screaming red flags should be on anything you post as you lie and are wrong so often as I have document so so often. Don't know about you but doing quite well in this market. By the say, arcam has not got to 10 and below and the cybers were not the best performing sectr last year. LOL
hI LIAR. Missed your lies and comic relief. Already caught you in so many lies. You who keep shouting that you post all your buys and sells and attack others for not doing.
Lets see where you stated you bought DWTI and your price. Your last shouts were touting oil going up and buying uwti. LIAR. Your also the one who shouted all over the place that cybers were going to be the best trade in 2015 WRONG. Your also the one who shouted over and over that the fed would raise rates in Feb 2015. WRONG. Your also the one who shouted that EIA was a company and that Roth gains were taxed. Your also the one who shouted that sdrl wouid rocket as would sigma. WRONG. weren't you the one shouting now long ago that crude would be rocketing and anyone was an idioit for not buying it and uwti. Wrong. Were not you the one saying arcam would be going to 10 and below. WRONG.
We are officialy in the throws of a bear market. LIAR. You don't even know what a bear market is. A while ago when the market was down over 10% and I pointed out that was a correction you said no way. Now no one has called this a bear market and you shout it is. You who did not announce selling your cybers, caimed theyi would be the best sector in 2015 and were wrong and lied on all counts. I remember when you tried to top me by saying you were up on all your ciyberfs and that you had double baggers in all and I pointed out your lies.
So you lost money in your cybers. Heck your biggest brag Feye is now below what you first bragged about buying it at. I documented all your oil lies and continuing You claim this is an official bear market. Do youi even know what a bear market Is????? You shouted that arcam was going below 10. Huh????? If this is a bear market, i'm a happy bear.
Little clown who needs to keep responding to me. I could go on with a lot more of your lies and misstatements, but I think the readers have got the point All of the bosie shouts I mentioned are easily verified. GOTCHA
Don't blame you for being upset Despite the idiots that said the stock would rocket, I was obvious this deal would kill the small investors for the second time. All the ships are mortgaged byi the first lien holder so suspect you have no equity in them. The second lien holders interest will be paid in kind so that will reduce revenue. 90% of the shares you bough have been taken away from you as 90% of the total equity was given to the 2nd lien holders. And of what you had left, there was a reverse stock split to take even more of your shares. I hate to think of what few shares you have left and what what little equity they represent. Other than protecting the office holders and big guys, wonder why they just ddn't go BK like a little while ago as the private shareholders essentially have nothing left.
You are needy to post and to attack and as usual wrong. Many of the thoughts were new and I thanked the poster for the info. And yes some of his points I had said before and noted. I've also pointed out all those trader errors where he said that ge would not make any bulk buys because of the time lapse, then when the order came said we would sell thousands of printers this year and now says we won't sell that many. I could.
I call them like I see them. Where useful information is offered I state that, where my opinions are confirmed I state that, when i'm wrong I state thatand when a post is wrong I state that.
But keep on showing your neediness to respond to me, and your inability to do so with accuracy and rationality. LOL
Your wrong, at the last redcap about a year ago, new stock was issued with the existing owners only getting about 10% of the equity with the lenders getting most. Yes, technically not a formal reverse split, but a forced reduction of share owndership which is the same thing. Form over substance. Would you prefer me adding all the extra words to expain what happened or simply note the effect which was a reverse split and immediate increase in the share price because of the share about ownded by the little guy. A spade is a spade is a spade
I know more about what i'm talking about than those yesterday that said the stock wold rocket todayi Now cokntinue to make a fool of yourself. Or and ain't is not proper English.