At tomorrow"s webcast this will be the first time they will behaving a conference call outside the quiet period. I assume they will let analysts ask questions that they were not allowed to answer the last time. This should allow us to hear that doctors are responding exceedingly well to the data that has been presented since the October 2 approval for first line chemotherapy. This will help the JP Morgan analyst raise his price target closer to the other analyst targets of over 40. Their are about 8 million shares in the float so there should be a huge move up as the institutions fight to get in.
The real homerun to this investment is if all solid tumors treated with any chemo can be dramatically curtailed by adding the ttf treatments. So far it appears this to be true when you review the results of the phase 3 and early phase 2 and 1 data. The company believes this to be so as they describe in their s-1. They say that their are over 1 million such patients with tumors that could be treated by ttf in the US alone. Lets say that happens over the next 5 years and that the average treatment is just 12 months and not 18 to 24 months. At the approved reimbursement of $14500 per month per patient then the revenue per patient per year is $174,000. The market would be $174,000,000,000. This is an industry to its own since there is no competition. The ttf treatment will be used with ether chemo, immunotherapy or radiation. There is no way the current market cap is even close to 5% of where it will be. The conference call on Monday will be the beginning of the institutional accumulation.
I agree with you. If you look at novocure blogs in a search you wlll find a phase 2 study of using Optune with chemo for non small cell lung cancer that was published in 2010. Interesting it shows the same dramatic improvement that was shown in the phase 3 glioblastoma trial that was stopped early because of the dramatically good results that led to its recent approval. It is obvious that it will work in the lung cancer market the same way. This means the possibility of becoming the standard of care when combined with chemo for this most common of lung cancers is huge. There are over 10 times more people with non small cell lung cancer than brain tumors. The company already has a major sales and awareness presence in all major cancer centers in the world. If Yankeeipo is correct and I see no reason whey he/she is not then the maket opportunity for this treatment isgoing to make this company worth multiples of where it is today. Compare this valuation to biotechs who are only in phase 3 and have to share the marketing of their product with a larger company. This stock is just starting its institutional accumulation.