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InVivo Therapeutics Holdings Corp. Message Board

pefact2000k 5 posts  |  Last Activity: Mar 1, 2015 5:47 AM Member since: Oct 31, 2012
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  • Reply to

    Valuation Model

    by pefact2000k Feb 26, 2015 9:25 AM
    pefact2000k pefact2000k Mar 1, 2015 5:47 AM Flag

    ronhop

    I made a valuation on NVIV and not on the industry so it makes no sense to discount by 80%. It is very simple if NVIV goes bankrupt the value will be a big fat zero (forget about the 1 to 2 Dollars for the patents) but if they are successful and we get the final proof from another patient than the valuation model I made indicates a reasonable share potential of the Company.
    There are still a lot of hills to claim but the potential is enormous.

  • Reply to

    Valuation Model

    by pefact2000k Feb 26, 2015 9:25 AM
    pefact2000k pefact2000k Mar 1, 2015 5:33 AM Flag

    Envy,

    Indeed we think along the same lines as I did add another group of countries but I did not want to be too optimistic. That is the reason why I used the purchasing power to become a reasonable rate of treatable patients. Like in your proposal I used Canada, Australia, New Zealand, Japan, South Korea, Russia and Mexico. This combined group of countries would add another 9'500 treatable patients. To me that looks reasonable. However from a commercialization standpoint we just need the US and Europe to be very successful.

    I do think that not all patients can be treated especially in the poorer countries. There will not be money around to pay for these poor people.

  • Reply to

    The missing piece

    by pefact2000k Feb 24, 2015 9:23 AM
    pefact2000k pefact2000k Feb 26, 2015 9:46 AM Flag

    Hello mass. Thanks. I just posted my valuation model on the board. I made three scenarios a conservative one, a likely one and an optimistic forecast. I personally tend to lean toward the likely one. Very impressive numbers of the potential share price. However it is impossible to predict when these levels will be reached. It depends on so many variables. My best guess would be that if we get the same kind of results in other patients and an uplisting is announced that we will be 10+ at the end of this year.

  • pefact2000k by pefact2000k Feb 26, 2015 9:25 AM Flag

    I did a valuation Model to get a sense of the theoretical share price of NVIV. Basically to value a company can be done in different ways. Based on earnings, on revenues, on the intrinsic value or it can be compared to listed companies with similar characteristics.

    For investors the most common (and easy) approach is to use the earnings and this is what I did.
    Here my key assumptions: I used the U.S. as the base market in terms of injuries per year, in terms of the nominal GDP per capita and in terms of “treatable patients”, which I have estimated to be 80% (since not all patients will be covered by insurance or cannot be treated due to medical reasons). So in the US I used 9’600 cases/year (80% of 12’000).

    In the EU there are 500m people and I used the same injury ratio (40 cases in a million people) as in the US. So theoretically we would have 20’000 cases. To get to the treatable patients I adjusted the US base with the lower nominal GDP in the EU versus the US. The results are 13’442 patients/year (20’000*80% minus a 13% lower GDP).
    I did the valuation for a conservative (C), a likely (L) and optimistic (O) scenario. In (C) I used $60’000, in (L) 80’000 and in (O) 100’000 as revenues for the NSS.

    In the US base model I estimated all the costs to be 80m and 50% of being fix and 50% of being variable (so the costs for the US and Europe are 136 m and this has been applied in C, L, and O). Further I used a tax rate of 35% and a share count of 100m (C), 105m (L) and 110m (O). The P/E ratio I used was 15 (C), 25 (L), 35 (O).

    The results are as follows:
    For the US Market alone it gives me a share price of $ 48 (C); 112 (L); 200 (O)
    For the US and Europe I calculated a share price of $ 116 (C); 264 (L); 470 (O)

    The above is based on the two main NSS acute markets only and it excludes any other revenues like NSS + stem cells or any other initiatives. It will take a few years to get to such valuations but the potential is mind boggling.

  • pefact2000k by pefact2000k Feb 24, 2015 9:23 AM Flag

    I have invested in InVivo 5 years ago in a private placement. So I’m closely following the company for a long time and boy this was a heck of a wild ride! Finally pay day is around the corner. I do share the enthusiasm as many others on this board. The outlook of NVIV has never been better or more promising.

    However there is one piece missing to have certainty about the effectiveness of the NSS. The unexpected good results of Jordan could theoretically also be the result from a spontaneous recovery of his own body/spinal cord (and therefore was not the result of the NSS). He is young, strong and determined and each patient and body is unique. We know it happens in statistically 15% of all cases (some studies mention 5 %).

    What we need is a second patient with similar unexpected good results. If e.g. the B&B functions can be restored than we would have the missing piece and the ultimate proof that the science works in humans the same way as it did in the animal studies.

    Or to put it differentially, not all the ingredients are in place (yet) for the perfect storm. As said if we find the missing piece and we get the final confirmation of the science (from one of the four other patients) NVIV will write medical history. And we shareholders have the best possible investment you can think of. There will be no other stock in the investment universe with a higher potential of value increase. Exciting times ahead!

NVIV
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