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MiMedx Group, Inc. Message Board

pennyvulture 117 posts  |  Last Activity: Nov 23, 2015 3:22 PM Member since: Feb 11, 2002
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  • Reply to


    by chessmaster6752 Nov 23, 2015 12:08 PM
    pennyvulture pennyvulture Nov 23, 2015 3:22 PM Flag

    it was at 2, then the guy who started the pricing issues that HRC was commenting on bought in with a group backing him, and the shorts got skewered. 40 now...

  • pennyvulture by pennyvulture Nov 23, 2015 1:36 PM Flag

    This is clearly a stock that requires a lot of patience. Patience is not one of my strong qualities, hanging in with CFMS is causing me anxiety.

    A SP of 25 will cure my anxiety...please...!!!

  • Reply to

    Bloomberg story from Schwab news

    by pennyvulture Nov 16, 2015 4:04 PM
    pennyvulture pennyvulture Nov 17, 2015 8:59 AM Flag

    tks, I looked it up on the web, and see he does a lot of short selling, if you do the same, you will see his "home run" has been LL. He was way ahead of the curve there, with a lot of specific info.

    I was in EXAS earlier, took a hit, got out, and got back in at 8.70, now thinking of selling, don't see much interest in EXAS. But that is true of a lot of biotechs.

  • pennyvulture pennyvulture Nov 16, 2015 4:18 PM Flag

    good momo stocks have a steady flow of positive news. Between the healthcare segment in general and SCMP specifically, there is only cloudy news, not bad, not clearly good. And a lousy flow. I get the feeling that CLVS hurt the entire grp today, people realize the downside of the dev biotechs, and decide to get to a safer place.

    It is my guess that the clouds in biotech/drugs will not clear up this basis for that, just they way it feels, esp after a great mkt day today, and only a marginal bio/drug day.

  • at 3:59, Schwab posted a news item for EXAS that seems ominous, "beginning of the end for EXAS", but no content. Anyone know what thios is about? Apparently from a Bloomberg story citing Tilson at Robin Hood...that's directly from the news.

  • pennyvulture by pennyvulture Nov 12, 2015 1:29 PM Flag

    I have been out of ANIP for a few weeks, I haven't missed much, and I wanted less volatility. The reason I sold, aside from the obvious, is that the EPS est, as reported to YHOO, were going down. Not a good thing.

    I just looked now, and over the last 7 days, the 2015 est has moved from 2.25 to 2.70 (not sure how accurate these guys are...), and the 2016 from 3.12 to 3.42. I would note that the 2016 est is more than 20% above 2015, a very good thing.

    I am certainly not jumping back in, there are many drug/bio stocks selling at multiples like that, but it is an encouraging sign.

  • Reply to

    #$%$? Good opportunity here today!

    by jfer0332 Nov 12, 2015 9:58 AM
    pennyvulture pennyvulture Nov 12, 2015 12:29 PM Flag

    hey, I got back in yesterday, whose timing is worse??

  • Reply to

    #$%$? Good opportunity here today!

    by jfer0332 Nov 12, 2015 9:58 AM
    pennyvulture pennyvulture Nov 12, 2015 11:38 AM Flag

    Based on the price action, I would suggest caution...if it seems like nonsense, that doesn't mean it is nonsense.

  • Reply to

    SCMP chart

    by pennyvulture Nov 11, 2015 12:20 PM
    pennyvulture pennyvulture Nov 11, 2015 1:08 PM Flag

    oops, just that fast, back to off 50 cents, sorry I got happy feet...

  • pennyvulture by pennyvulture Nov 11, 2015 12:20 PM Flag

    Just look at the daily candlestick chart for the last 5 days, including today. SCMP is close to turning green today, which makes it 5 days in a row with green candles.

    Painful volatility, but a nice chart implies that a recovery is underway.

  • pennyvulture pennyvulture Nov 8, 2015 10:06 AM Flag

    You mean the IRWD with 200M of annualized revenue and 500M in the bank?

    vs a company with 200M in the bank, burning over 30M/Q, and no revenue?

    IRWD won't dilute, SGYP will definitely need to dilute.

  • Reply to

    Everyone talks about shorts

    by italianex1 Nov 6, 2015 4:36 PM
    pennyvulture pennyvulture Nov 7, 2015 9:01 AM Flag

    Having owned biotechs trhu the FDA approval process, it is my experience that the shorts know that there are always nervous holders. That is even more true as the PDUFA date approaches.

    If you have certainty that a drug would be approved, there would still be volatility before the announcement. Because there are no absolutes.

    So, imo, all stocks like SGYP are trades. I keep a very small long position, and buy 2-3x that when it dips to 6 (bot yesterday), and patiently wait for 6.70-6.80. Sold that last bunch at about those prices, back in at 6.15.

    At some point, the brackets for this game on SGYP could change. If that happens, I just adjust, or find another company who is a year from approval, and play the game with the.

    The bottom line is that the shorts know it's a while before things get clear for SGYP, and they can instill fear and make money when the investors get worried.

    for ref, I held KYTH for 2 months before they were approved, KYTH was so sure they had hired sales and marketing people, set up a huge infrastructure, and done everything as if the approval was assured. Still, the stock gyrated wildly in that 60 days. KYTH was acquired within a few weeks of getting the approval. That was my most recent experience. I have others...

  • pennyvulture pennyvulture Nov 6, 2015 3:13 PM Flag

    While it is a good thing she got back to you, I have very little confidence in IR people, they are the worst kind of mouthpieces for companies.

    They are no more transparent than the BO admin, both promise transparency, then feed us what they want us to think...

    Plus, those high estimates were out there for 2-3 months, they shd have managed them down right away. Pretty poor work. IR includes the analyst interactions.

    Still, I bot more, and will hold for a little, this drug/biotech battering has to end at some point, and then we can see whick stocks are strong. Hopefully, SCMP will recover.

  • pennyvulture pennyvulture Nov 4, 2015 1:49 PM Flag

    I had another biotech, RTRX, and when their IR was unresponsive, I just sold. That was at 21, today RTRX is also getting hammered.

    It is my thinking that unresponsive IR depts are a sign of poorly run companies.

  • Reply to

    Mixed results here

    by culleraa Nov 4, 2015 7:41 AM
    pennyvulture pennyvulture Nov 4, 2015 9:00 AM Flag

    Mixed results is very generous, more like "missed badly and guided eps much lower". If you see the results as mixed, you must the the pres of the local optimist club...

  • pennyvulture pennyvulture Nov 3, 2015 12:02 PM Flag

    I read it, and I was not impressed by the questions.

    CFMS did re-affirm that they had expected a 50% growth from 2015 to 2016, but they were unwilling to modify that based on 2015 being hurt a little by the recall.

    More important to me, while they touted that the new process will greatly expand their addressable market, they did not raise their expected growth rate.

    I sold a lot yesterday. I didn't want "ER risk". This was a good rept, considering what has transpired, but I am a little disappointed that the mgmt wasn't more positive when they discussed financials, but were overly positive when they discussed products and receptiveness of their base. Seems like a disconnect.

    Still, I added some back today, just a little nibble for now.

  • pennyvulture pennyvulture Nov 3, 2015 8:57 AM Flag

    Fluff is so easy to deliver, everyone loves fluff.

    Did they give specific guidance as to 2016 revenues? I didn't see that.

    I love fluff, but I love specific guidance much more. It would seem to me that the current analyst est for $100M in 2016 rev should be light by about 15-20M. Just my guess, based on the ramp they were on, and adding in some for the hip joint.

    Did any of this come up on the concall?

  • Reply to

    Added at $19.40!

    by greatdayisback2013 Oct 21, 2015 2:09 PM
    pennyvulture pennyvulture Nov 2, 2015 3:59 PM Flag

    I added again in the mid-18s, and today sold everything between 20.50 and 20.80.

    No desire to be in this for the ER, I'll get back in after the dust settles.


  • Reply to

    There should be MASSIVE short covering here

    by abrosey61 Oct 23, 2015 7:54 AM
    pennyvulture pennyvulture Oct 23, 2015 8:37 AM Flag

    just stupid. Based on a weak competitor who had under 20% of the mkt imploding, you think GILD's mkt cap will increase by 75B??

    With another stronger competitor entering the mkt next yr?

    Lay off the java, it's making you crazy.

  • Reply to

    Going to 50 by 2016

    by alex_kazi Oct 16, 2015 10:06 AM
    pennyvulture pennyvulture Oct 22, 2015 2:57 PM Flag

    I hear statements like that all the time. I used to hear it from people I worked with, not I read it on MBs.

    I have a strong belief in the markets. When the mkt told me it didn't like INSY, I sold.

    I am amazed by how much the mkt doesn't like INSY. Down 14% today, while the large caps are all up.

    But I am not trying to pick a bottom. When the bottom is in, the mkt will tell me.

    Others that amaze me include AKRX, EGRX, MNK, and many others. But I wait for Mr Market to tell me when it's time to play again.

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