You call it a sick puppy, I call it better than most!!
YTD XBI is off 35%, and LGND is off 21%, including the drop today.
I used the selling today to add to my position. I really don't care about 85, 90, or 100. I want to believe that this malaise on the group will end at some point, and LGND will hit that 146 within a year, maybe less.
I would not agree that this is so terribly oversold, except from a technical point of view.
If you consider the major biotechs with rev, like CELG, they are oversold.
The dev bios are still valued as if they were going to produce some revenue at some point. Most will not.
RLYP is still. imo, overvalued. Just as a ref, look at NEOS, their ADHD drug was approcved 2 weeks ago, and it traded up to 15 in the AH, now it's 7.60.
Until the mkt seees the rev that everyone here talks about, RLYP is overvalued. Sure, if it is really a $1B drug, sure, if the company can show results that indicate that is true, then it's undervalued.
But right now, I would want 15 or less to be a buyer.
Sorry, throw your stones, but it's a mkt that need sto be properly reconciled.
Plus, the selling in the cloud space has a while to go, and that will also affect Nas stocks, inc biotechs.
well, now I would hope they do whatever they can to tighten their belts, and wait for a little recovery before a massive dilution. The lower the SP, the more shrs they will need to issue...
pls, what competition? For a long time, PACB was supposed to be getting ready to nip at their heels,and last week, that thot went away...so who else?
jfer, 2 thots on your post. If you are correct about Q3/4, those numbers are not in the current analyst projections (45M for Q1, and 204M for 2016, means very small growth thru the yr).
Since you say that SUPN has already indicated greatly increased sales, of their largest selling drug, what might that increase be, and when will SUPN mgmt make that more public? Investor days are not widely followed for a small company like SUPN...so that info clearly isn't in the current numbers.
Second, that 10x rev for a drug/biotech was last years valuation.With all the pres candidates talking about opening up Medicare to a competitive bid process, even if it doesn't affect a company, it affects valuations. 5 might be the new 10 for a while...
As to the current SP, I think there's still more downside in the mkt, and SUPN will retrace to under 10. I doubt it will get to 20 in the next year, even if they move numbers up a lot. But 15? Sure, and that would be a 50% gain over 10, still not shabby!!
Help me out here, I thot those patents were already validated in prior lawsuits.
This was just SUPN defending those patents against people trying to skirt the patent with a generic.
it's a good thing, but everyone knows 9don't they) that th epatents are valid, and no one was worrying about this court decision...
My point is, will the pop dissipate and the SP drop back to 10?
imo, a big mistake by mgmt not getting this priced already, but maybe they could not...no interest in the investment community during a huge sell off for more biotech stocks...
I was hoping to get in at 8.50 after the SO, I now think your 6 may be the right number, but I also might not be interested if it is too low. Too low is bad, requires more dilution...
I bet most shareholders aren't laffing....
I am keeping a list, it keeps getting longer, of stocks that could pop 50% when this blood letting ends. SUPN is on that list.
However, I don't think the blood letting is close to being over...nothing to do with most the stocks on my list, but bcse there is still a lot of excess in many Nasdaq stocks. Until everything is cheap, everything will be going down, imo.
If you are watching the killing in cloud/SaaS stocks today, you might think it's all being sold off at once, but I would maintain the ones that are off from 10-40% are all, pretty much, still overvalued.
here's the only projection you need. S&P at 1879, it's low, set a few days ago, was 1856. It's my guess that the S&P will challenge the old low, driven lower by more selling in the large cap Nasdaq stocks.
Here's the bright lite, keep a list of companies that report really good, and get nothing for it, and when the time is right, I see a lot of stocks that shd go up 50% or more. SCMP is one of them, esp if it gets to 10.
didn't you guys all sell all your shrs on the pop yesterday?
There could be 25% downside from here. Everyone says no recession, and in the past, everyone said no recession until there was a recession.
S&P could (should?) test it's old lows, which means another 30 pts down on the S&P. If that happens, will LCI (or anything) be higher or lower than today?
I think you need to look at SG&A and R&D, at least the SG&A will continue to grow pretty fast.
In any biotech with good ref, SG&A is greater than R&D. Looking at the FOLD statements, they will certainly be spending a more on SG&A than R&D within 2 Qs.
That burn rate will be $40M/Q. Before this yr is over, they will need to do another SO.
The current mkt cap is 800M, if they need 200M, that comes out to a 25% dilution later this yr.
The unfortunate truth of dev bios is that since they need access to capital to grow, and since they only have access to equity capital, as the stock prices decline, they become less attractive.
I can't believe the destruction in the dev biotech space. I was in FOLD a lot, was out for the big drop, back in from 7 to 10, and out since then.
I'd love to play again, I just can't justify it with the current climate for the group.
as the stock plummets 20%+, and the results are totally lousy, you wonder who takes them seriously?
How can anyone take you seriously?
wow, you really know how to pick 'em! 3 start up and no profits? It is almost hard to do that!!
I was in 2, and both were real losers, as far as the tech goes, I still made a bundle off 1, and some good money off the other.
tks, it wasn't coming up on my screen...at least it was as expected. Now let's see if they can get thru the concall without putting their foot into their mouth.
Others were posting 20 bucks and more for the BO, you think Roche, a Swiss company, is that stupid? The Swiss aren't as strong as they have become by doing stupid deals.
What would Roche gain that has any real significance to them?