Can someone make an estimate on valuation of this company after restatement? If you assume even 50 cents in earnings for 2013, apply a forward PE of 20, you still only get a $10 stock? That's not an aggressive estimate, but a reasonable one given where peers trade. It doesn't appear to be dramatically undervalued.
I'm trying to find market research data for the last 20 years showing:
1) Pricing of different grades of wholesale distilled spirits like rye whisky
2) Amount of each type of distilled spirit purchased as well as projected market growth. I'm particularly keen to see when the mega-high-growth of rye whisky is projected to taper off.
I'm also trying to understand how I can make an approximate calculation of how much forward inventory the industry has of the high growth spirits like whiskey. I'm trying to understand in the future if the demand is going to continue to overwhelm supply.
Is there a cutoff date by which you must buy USU in order to receive the new common shares? Assuming that date has gone already, it might account for weakness in USU common now.
You can easily calculate a value on this after the sale, after even 40% tax rate on transaction, north of $8. Allowing some discount for possibility that the transaction doesn't close, it might trade around $7. Yet it's near $5. What am I not seeing here? There is no liquidity issue I can detect. Yes, they lose money but losses are mild relative to liquidity.
jrad, this is a great overview. But in the bigger picture isn't ARLP simply deferring reality? Coal in this country has peaked and thermal coal utilization should begin a secular decline soon?
Since ethanol is a subsidized fuel with multiple political agendas support it, I guess it does not need to respond to economic reality of WTIC price? One could argue that as WTIC demand diminishes, and US energy independence progresses, that there might be even greater pressure to further ethanol subsidies. It gets quite complex. For now, ethanol play looks "on"
Is there a symbol on Yahoo to track ethanol price?s there a symbol on Yahoo to track ethanol price? I am trying to avoid the need to track individual commodity contracts.
Totally agree with you that iron ore miner stocks are just reflecting horrific trend of iron ore commodity.
That said, $100 iron ore requires very large capex budgets in China and would not be supported by just US demand for Chinese goods. Most of the Chinese capex in building cities in the last decade has been largely government-sponsored fiscal policy resulting in massive overbuilding of infrastructure. I have problems believing $100 iron ore is sustainable.
Management has a history of diluting shareholders and overcompensating itself with large pieces of of the equity. Book value is defined with strange accounting transactions and no one is really sure what the actual book value is.
Technically, I love the chart here. I think the mortgage business is likely to have upside surprises end of year. But it's harder to make a value argument when you aren't quite sure what book value means here.
Are there any decent symbols trading on the US market that you think reflect well Brazilian macroeconomics? Anyone tracking Brazilian Real in a stock symbol, or groupings of various Brazilian equities in a pure index (not a heavily manipulated mutual fund)?
I am looking for a short list of mortgage orginators whose stocks have formed a broad base in the last six months, but who also trade options that go out until at least 2015 and preferably LEAPS to 2016. Does anyone know of some?
Pretty darn weird that a Fed warning to take liquidity out of the stock market would affect iron ore stocks, which have already been burned to the ground and left for dead. Would make a whole lot more sense to sell down all of these ridiculous PE 160+ stocks that are chasing Internet growth, social media, etc.
Oversupply of IO is already in the price of these stocks, and has been for most of 2014. That's not why they gapped down.
And what matters to earnings is not whether there is oversupply of ore. What matters is whether the long-term price can hold at a level that makes a marginal producer like Cliffs profitable. They don't need an undersupply to make money. All they need to do is beat expectations, which have already been beaten down considerably.