The interesting clue here is that the preferred shares are climbing in value at the same time the common is selling on high volume. Maybe they are going to dilute the common? That strengthens financial position and better protects the preferred dividend.
Which vendor has good day charts - with different timeframes selectable - showing current pricing for day rates for crude tankers and product tankers?
bigbear I think you have it reversed. Tanker stocks went up because oil went down. Tanker stocks are under pressure now because oil is beginning to move back up.
Low oil prices meant more contracts for using tankers for offshore storage facilities. Oil at low prices increases volume demand, hence increases tanker rates.
I think that just side steps my questions. I understand small brokers sell for a premium because this is a buy out environment. The issue is that NHLD is having to completely modify its earnings profile and no one understands (yet) what their revised earnings will be. That creates doubt about valuation even if you understand what the metric should be.
Here is a devil's advocate argument, and I would appreciate your countering it.
As part of the uplift to NASDAQ, NHLD had to give up its most profitable alternative product business. Dec 2014 quarter reflects this with very low 0.5M earnings. If that trend continues, they earn only 2M per year, which on a forward basis puts them at a PE of 20 against the current share price.
They are already trading below book, but you could imagine the market only giving them tangible asset value and maybe writing off the goodwill, so unlikely book value is a protection when the earnings are in doubt.
I'm looking for a new convertible. I'm not discussing the convertible that matures in April.
Does DHT have any public debt, either bonds or preferreds?
I'm trying to find a crude oil tanker company with recently priced convertible bonds or convertible preferreds. It doesn't have to be a US based company and the debt can be in a foreign market.
Do you know of any recently-issued convertible preferreds or convertible bonds for crude tanker companies that are public? I'm trying to realize a strike for the convertible that lets us expose to upside if crude tanker rates continue to improve, and to get paid something while waiting....
That looks like totally wrong analysis. The cash flow statement and balance sheet tell you much more. The operating cash flow for year 2014 is -$10.3M and the other investment cash flows give them negative free cash flow around -$11.5M.
There is no cash on the balance sheet. So how did they finance that cash drain? Look at the net borrowings on the cash flow, and they borrowed an additional $12.3M. The company is in a liquidity crisis. That's why they are 20 cents even though fundamentally they are worth 80 cents to $1.20 easily. When you are in a liquidity crisis like this, the finance guys close your lines of credit and become vultures who make a grab for your assets.
You are making the mistake that all fundamental value investors make in liquidity crisis: you are confusing *fair* value with what a vulture pays for assets. In every situation like this I have seen where a bankruptcy is avoided, there is a last minute "financing" that effective dilutes the existing shareholders to zero. That happens simply because the company loses all of its financial flexibility and ability to negotiate fair terms on any deal. They end up taking what is offered because there is no better choice. Management does better than okay many times because they negotiated new incentive agreements with the new owners. Shareholders get nothing.
Yes, JOEZ is worth 80 cents plus, for sure. And that will all be for the benefit of the new owners, not common shareholders.
Are there any startup biochem companies that are public and are pursuing as their main product approach oncolytic immunotherapy? Are any of these using a viral approach similar to what Duke has done with modified polio virus?
I am with kkranker on this. Don't you think the smart money said this a year ago and that is a primary reason for the stock being down this far?
I would remind people that the same thing happened in Australia a few years ago, with the new law threatening to put payday lending out of business. After six months of lobbying by industry, the rules were eased and that payday business was allowed to continue.
I think you buy this panic.
You are living in the past, and you appear to be unable to accept change. The company may have been a sleazy call center, but it has been working to make itself something less sleazy. Rather than really analyzing that transformation, you just sling mud by trying to show events in the far past that don't accurately reflect the current entity.
I think the thing to watch is the NASDAQ offering. If most of that offering is a secondary with insiders bailing out, that would be a very bad sign.