Management has a history of diluting shareholders and overcompensating itself with large pieces of of the equity. Book value is defined with strange accounting transactions and no one is really sure what the actual book value is.
Technically, I love the chart here. I think the mortgage business is likely to have upside surprises end of year. But it's harder to make a value argument when you aren't quite sure what book value means here.
Are there any decent symbols trading on the US market that you think reflect well Brazilian macroeconomics? Anyone tracking Brazilian Real in a stock symbol, or groupings of various Brazilian equities in a pure index (not a heavily manipulated mutual fund)?
I am looking for a short list of mortgage orginators whose stocks have formed a broad base in the last six months, but who also trade options that go out until at least 2015 and preferably LEAPS to 2016. Does anyone know of some?
Pretty darn weird that a Fed warning to take liquidity out of the stock market would affect iron ore stocks, which have already been burned to the ground and left for dead. Would make a whole lot more sense to sell down all of these ridiculous PE 160+ stocks that are chasing Internet growth, social media, etc.
Oversupply of IO is already in the price of these stocks, and has been for most of 2014. That's not why they gapped down.
And what matters to earnings is not whether there is oversupply of ore. What matters is whether the long-term price can hold at a level that makes a marginal producer like Cliffs profitable. They don't need an undersupply to make money. All they need to do is beat expectations, which have already been beaten down considerably.
Can you cite specific clauses in their credit agreement that forbid them raising more money through the preferreds?
Isn't there a good legal basis for MBI initiating a suit to withdraw its insurance on Puerto Rican utility bonds? Don't the laws that the Puerto Rican government has passed completely change the risk profile of the insurance? Surely the insurance contract allows the insurer to withdraw its insurance when risk profile is change in bad faith?
What is the CUSIP for the bond that is due? If Tower defaults, where do those bondholders stand in the debt structure and how much of the reorganized entity would they end up owning?
By the way, Yahoo shows First Call earnings estimates for JOEZ for 2015 falling from .08 a few weeks ago to .03 currently. Do you think those estimates incorporate another year of one-time expenses? I would like to reconcile to your 12 cent estimate for 2015.
Can anyone give any valuation metric for JOEZ that would justify the share price north of $1.50? They have almost no forward earnings, so they trade at high forward PE currently. It looks like this holds the current share price based on book value.
What are comparable valuations for other fashion resellers that lack any positive earnings?
What percentage of SNFCA's sales and net earnings are attributable to each of its business segments, including mortgage origination?
What was last quarter's earnings in the mortgage origination business, and did management give guidance on when that segment might hit bottom?
That's simply gambling, betting on interest rates like you would bet on a commodity.
What made MSRs interesting in early 2013 was that you could calculate very high IRRs buying them at market rates without making any upward assumptions about future interest rates. That's no longer the case.
What value would the DTA ever have to IMH? Won't they be able to use the net operating losses to offset future earnings? They clearly won't make enough from earnings to even put a dent in the $489 NOL. Therefore the DTA - which does eventually expire worthless - is effectively a sunk asset that will never realize any value?
Isn't it a little late in the cycle to just start to realize the value of MSRs now? MSRs were a big story early 2013 because they were unwanted and hugely undervalued. Now you have four or five entities that are focused on buying them from banks, and that in turn shot up the prices that everyone pays for those MSRs.
My point here: where exactly is IMH going to buy any quantity of "cheap" MSRs? The asset class is getting fairly valued now.