Except they did a large shelf offering which clearly shows an intent to repeat the same tactic again. Or did they do a large shelf offering so they could avoid ever issuing more shares?
I was not asking if they will be "fine". I want to know what will be sales and EBITDA for next three years under different scenarios.
The behavior of the stock suggests that both revenues and EBITDA will substantially decline over the next three years in most scenarios.
Assets in a bankruptcy would sell for pennies on the dollar. The question is what is the *secure* income stream that can be generated from those assets. If that income stream is declining, unlikely the market will assign a PE much higher than 2 or 3 to the declining earnings stream.
They periodically have been issuing new shares. That's the reason for the price action. Every time they need more cash the stock tanks into the secondary.
The stock price seems to suggest that the company's business model is not sustainable or has significant risk of collapse going forward. Can someone suggest what are the most probably scenarios for the next two or three years?
Can someone make an estimate on valuation of this company after restatement? If you assume even 50 cents in earnings for 2013, apply a forward PE of 20, you still only get a $10 stock? That's not an aggressive estimate, but a reasonable one given where peers trade. It doesn't appear to be dramatically undervalued.
I'm trying to find market research data for the last 20 years showing:
1) Pricing of different grades of wholesale distilled spirits like rye whisky
2) Amount of each type of distilled spirit purchased as well as projected market growth. I'm particularly keen to see when the mega-high-growth of rye whisky is projected to taper off.
I'm also trying to understand how I can make an approximate calculation of how much forward inventory the industry has of the high growth spirits like whiskey. I'm trying to understand in the future if the demand is going to continue to overwhelm supply.
Is there a cutoff date by which you must buy USU in order to receive the new common shares? Assuming that date has gone already, it might account for weakness in USU common now.
You can easily calculate a value on this after the sale, after even 40% tax rate on transaction, north of $8. Allowing some discount for possibility that the transaction doesn't close, it might trade around $7. Yet it's near $5. What am I not seeing here? There is no liquidity issue I can detect. Yes, they lose money but losses are mild relative to liquidity.
jrad, this is a great overview. But in the bigger picture isn't ARLP simply deferring reality? Coal in this country has peaked and thermal coal utilization should begin a secular decline soon?
Since ethanol is a subsidized fuel with multiple political agendas support it, I guess it does not need to respond to economic reality of WTIC price? One could argue that as WTIC demand diminishes, and US energy independence progresses, that there might be even greater pressure to further ethanol subsidies. It gets quite complex. For now, ethanol play looks "on"
Is there a symbol on Yahoo to track ethanol price?s there a symbol on Yahoo to track ethanol price? I am trying to avoid the need to track individual commodity contracts.
Totally agree with you that iron ore miner stocks are just reflecting horrific trend of iron ore commodity.
That said, $100 iron ore requires very large capex budgets in China and would not be supported by just US demand for Chinese goods. Most of the Chinese capex in building cities in the last decade has been largely government-sponsored fiscal policy resulting in massive overbuilding of infrastructure. I have problems believing $100 iron ore is sustainable.
Management has a history of diluting shareholders and overcompensating itself with large pieces of of the equity. Book value is defined with strange accounting transactions and no one is really sure what the actual book value is.
Technically, I love the chart here. I think the mortgage business is likely to have upside surprises end of year. But it's harder to make a value argument when you aren't quite sure what book value means here.