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OraSure Technologies, Inc. Message Board

pesotrader 56 posts  |  Last Activity: 13 hours ago Member since: Oct 11, 2005
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  • pesotrader pesotrader 13 hours ago Flag

    i bought 2560 shares of Humana (HUM) at $185.35 last thursday when it dropped 4% and as you may have read they got acquired by Aetna on friday. btw: my wife was thrilled to go shopping

    i made some money trading WYNN before HUM and will watch WYNN closely over the coming days and weeks as china's stock market crumbles. lots of pain still ahead for macau casinos but 2016 could be better so WYNN is my #1 watched stock for a future trade and investment. LVS is also a potential winner as they target the mass market segment more than VIPs.

    OSUR is very low on my radar. other stocks to watch for entry on a market selloff include AAPL TWTR TRUE DAL LUV ADSK ADBE GMCR. i personally plan to trade opportunistically in the next month and not be invested... so i can take advantage of earnings season action. i always come back to check OSUR but honestly i'm still annoyed at dougie and ronnie for so quickly selling their own stock and the issue of more shares right after Oraquick OTC approval. all their talk about the OTC potential, then they crash the stock. i still limped away with a profit, but they stole another $3 per share out of my pocket and that's hard to forget.

    will dorsey crash TWTR ? will Google eventually buy them ?
    will macau rush ahead to approve the full smoking ban ? will VIPs return ? will japan approve casinos ?
    will TRUE be able to stay above their $9 IPO price ?
    when will AAPL admit their watch is a dud and get back to innovation ? will $110 retest ?

    many questions, but none of them about OSUR for me until the stock plunges another 25% at least.

    happy bbq day. good to hear from you again

  • Reply to

    From Yahoo Finance

    by opalockamishabob Jul 4, 2015 1:11 PM
    pesotrader pesotrader 14 hours ago Flag

    M&A in healthcare is all about cutting costs and gaining more power to negotiate contracts. Nuance healthcare is growing by low single-digits and there's little or no overlap for which an acquirer could squeeze out big costs. Samsung is really the best (and possibly only) acquirer that could utilize all the different business pieces of Nuance. one big issue for me has been the enormous goodwill on the balance sheet ($3.35B) and the $2.4B debt comes in second as a concern. the goodwill was built-up over years of overpaying for acquisitions and without acquisitions Nuance has stalled as Ricci continues to disappoint on organic growth. we see lots more voice recognition implementations coming to market, yet few involve Nuance and that's a concern. they should have done a writedown of goodwill in 2009. why didn't Nuance win the connected-car market and prevent competitors from even entering the fray? how come Nuance isn't the winner in mobile voice assistants? remember, Siri is the brains built atop Nuance VR technology but it's Siri that gets all the user recognition. so many chances for Nuance to have dominated the space.... I now give Nuance little chance of getting bought as a whole and zero chance of getting split up and sold in pieces. I admit it was a trade on Icahn, but he doesn't want to make a move after two years, so i think this stock is a momentum play (when the heggies allow it) and not a value or growth play. no way to predict where the stock itself may move (it could rise again to $30 or crash back to $13) and it's frustrating to watch. i have good hopes for NUAN, recognize all side of the trade, but as you know i sold all my stock at $18.20 and decided to take a wait-n-see on Greece, China, etc. the only position i currently have is a long position (initiated last thursday) on Humana (HUM) at $185.35 and when i sell it on Monday for $220-230 then i'll be back to all cash and waiting for Alcoa earnings to show us the way. good luck

  • Reply to

    HUM To Open Around $230 not $210 lol

    by edwardc8622 Jul 3, 2015 12:43 PM
    pesotrader pesotrader Jul 3, 2015 7:10 PM Flag

    the deal seems to be great for Aetna going forward and it's very possible the deal gets approved since Uniited Health is still bigger than a combines AET+HUM company. cost synergies and other advantages could in fact significantly benefit Aetna shareholders by 2018 so why sell at $200... not me. if AET stock rises back to $135 range then or HUM shares could trade for $240.

    I would not be so quick to sell at $230.... remove your sell orders and let it rise.... $240-250 ? still has room to run higher as Aetna+Humana can deliver better profits for shareholders... and we know the elderly population (Medicare) is rising.

    IF i sold my HUM shares, i would probably just reinvest in Aetna...especially if AET price drops.


  • Reply to

    Should be into red later...

    by gee3987 Jul 2, 2015 8:58 AM
    pesotrader pesotrader Jul 3, 2015 6:58 PM Flag

    increased visitation will help Sands much more than others since mass market will fill their rooms and not be affected by china anti-corruption campaign. other casinos will also benefit, but Wynn will probably not see a large improvement as it continues to focus on VIP and "premium" mass market customers who are less likely to double their visitation under new visa rules. however, the overall monthly GGR should start to increase and that may affect investor sentiment in Wynn more than it normally would.

    on the negative side, a full smoking ban will hurt VIP and premium mass gaming revenues as everyone acknowledges it will decrease time at the table and interrupt a player's losing trend. the mass market gaming floors already have the smoking ban, so GGR won't change for that segment.

    another consideration is how VIP and "premium" chinese gamblers in the china stock market will be positioned to gamble in macau IF their stock accounts keep getting brutalized by the margin selling.

    WYNN certainly has room to fall and $80 level could be retested. we just don't know and IMO it will depend on Greece sparking a worldwide selloff, China market stock and property markets plunging since both are heavily margined with high-interest loans by speculators, the timing of full smoking ban approval, etc.

    i like WYNN for long-term and will watch carefully for reentry. definitely would not short at these levels.. but that's just me.

  • Reply to

    Solid Support

    by opalockamishabob Jul 2, 2015 11:33 AM
    pesotrader pesotrader Jul 3, 2015 12:25 AM Flag

    from SA article: "The company currently has poison pill provisions in place that are set to expire on August 19, 2015, opening up more options for Mr. Icahn. At its next annual meeting, the board will vote on an extension of the plan"

    my opinion: the poison pill will get renewed, just like Ricci's employment contract.

  • Reply to

    Solid Support

    by opalockamishabob Jul 2, 2015 11:33 AM
    pesotrader pesotrader Jul 2, 2015 5:21 PM Flag

    at least a month until NUAN reports and investors holding back to see if Greece problems give markets a reason to selloff further. china stock market dumps every day as investors take profits (or cut losses) and reduce their margin. we need a major pullback in the market to setup for a continued push higher later this year as few investors are piling in. in fact, i saw a report where BOA clients were dumping and raising cash. I myself sold all my NUAN stock at $18.20 and took profits so I can trade only right now and not be holding. from my perspective, NUAN needs a healthy consolidation before RR tells us again they lost millions due t currency exchange. updated RR employment agreement virtually eliminates possible sale of company for another year and likewise any significant changes by RR on fleecing shareholders even as they buyback stock. I will reevaluate and decide whether to reenter my position after i see how the first week or two of earnings flush out. not long, not short... just pleasantly neutral on the sidelines:-)

    happy bbq everyone!

  • pesotrader pesotrader Jul 1, 2015 4:36 PM Flag

    keep in mind that the $100M on the balance sheet was basically STOLEN from shareholders who falsely believed the HIV/OTC product hype from management. OSUR did not earn this money from product sales and when this cash reserve gets low again they will issue more shares.

    but fundamentally, the real issue for potential investors is whether this company can ever have a successful product (in terms of sales) to justify a forward p/e of 48 !!! OSUR is not really a biotech... it's more like a mature pharma and deserves a p/e closer to 5 for value investing.

    beware, this is a "news story" and "hype" stock and should be played for sentiment / momentum. having traded this stock for more than a decade, i think i know it a bit. i'm not saying don' own it, just be smart and watch the volume closely as you pick your entry / exit and remember that execs will ALWAYS dump stock when you least expect it.


  • pesotrader pesotrader Jun 30, 2015 7:15 PM Flag

    note today's news of china buying more airbus planes... and couple that with an article such as "Japan relaxes Chinese visas to stimulate visitor & airline growth, following Southeast Asia success" (you can google for the link) and -I- can see why Japan will vote for casinos AND why china must further relax visitation to macau. the more china middle-class (and wealthy) people, the more they DEMAND increased freedom of travel. china must decide whether macau will be the premier tourist destination -or- it will be Japan where china has far less visibility on them. macau has built up high expectations from local workers (big wages, job security, housing assistance, etc) and also expectations from the locals who have been receiving cash "social security" type benefit payments (i.e. sharing in the success) and will certainly protest loudly if their payouts are cut. let the workers inhale smoke... the local elderly want their money so macau govt has their heads in a tight vise between china demands and macau locals. china just blinked on visas, hopefully a good sign of better cooperation? the decision on full smoking ban in VIP rooms will show us more.

  • pesotrader pesotrader Jun 30, 2015 4:07 PM Flag

    Let me help you out...

    1) visitation length will increase by 40% and allow weekend travel on both ends (arrival, departure)
    2) number of visits will double, meaning more frequent gamblers can visit twice a month if desired. this will affect both mass and premium mass segments as well as VIPs who aren't being kept away by the anti-corruption / watchdog concerns.
    3) it means china and macau both realize the previous restrictions were too harsh and china had to ease before macau social unrest (layoffs, cuts to locals cash giveouts, macau govt budget cuts)
    4) it further suggests that japan's likely passage of casino laws later this year (leading up to 2019 world cup and 2020 olympics) worries macau as to losing VIP revenues and vacation seekers. if mass is restricted to macau they will go to japan for both gamble and vacation.

    -improving las vegas revenues
    -delayed smoking ban on VIP rooms
    -increased visitation (starting in july)
    -stabilization of gaming revenues
    -Palace opening March 2016
    -Japan law passage and license award (timeline pressure from 2019 World Cup & 2020 Olympics)
    -Boston property (opening 2018 ?)
    -dividend increase or special dividend later this year (if macau improves)
    -stock buyback, REIT, or other such financial engineering

    1-YEAR TARGET $150


  • pesotrader pesotrader Jun 25, 2015 11:45 PM Flag

    Japan is a non-issue for several years. Wynn commented that Japan will first do a study and we can expect several more years of delay before anything might get approved, then another couple years for them to decide who gets a license and where... then another two plus years before any casino nears completion. the potential for stock pop on near-term Japan news won't lift casino shares very much as everything investors really care about (at least for the next 5 years) is Macau. Boston will be a nice addition to revenues, but Macau is where the money gets made. all we really want from Vegas is to not be a burden on the company.

  • Reply to

    So now it's stuck here

    by hrdwkgdog Jun 17, 2015 8:07 PM
    pesotrader pesotrader Jun 25, 2015 11:48 AM Flag

    i am watching this stock "with interest" but not to invest and hold the stock again. BEBE is a dead brand and the company cannot survive. however, someday it may be a quick trade (i.e. from $0.1 to $0.25) and it's a good indicator for similar retailers such as ARO. telling the truth is not bashing, it's just being honest with a very informed opinion from a previous investor who got out before the birkhold crash. you should realize good advice when you see it and distinguish from folks like S&P Capital IQ who hold out a fake $4 target so losers will dump their money into the stock while others have exited. momentum is down and no upward catalysts as we go thru long hot summer which has been very weak for BEBE these past 5 years. good luck, but don't bet the farm on BEBE's survival as nothing good has happened here with Manny at the helm in a decade.

  • pesotrader pesotrader Jun 25, 2015 11:36 AM Flag

    Japan may never happen but Boston and Cotai expansions will be great for Wynn over the next decade. the VIP market will eventually come back strong in Macau and the local govt there will at some point push back against China to maintain local jobs and avoid budget cuts. if Macau casinos cannot get healthy, nobody else will build the family-friendly attractions they say they want and the locals will be angry with payout cuts. given a choice of smoking vs a ban, the employees and locals (including officials) will prefer to get paid. expect protests and distaste for China restrictions to swing the needle back again to favor casino profits. Sands/LVS needs the mass visitors to fill rooms, otherwise jobs will be lost. MPEL/Packer was a fool to build in Manila, expect that operation to fail in attracting VIPs even from China. as more mass-market casinos and hotels get built in Cotai, Wynn Palace smaller scale and exclusivity will become a major home for VIPs. jmo

  • Reply to

    So now it's stuck here

    by hrdwkgdog Jun 17, 2015 8:07 PM
    pesotrader pesotrader Jun 19, 2015 8:21 AM Flag

    i seriously doubt the BEBE brand is worth $100M or even $50M. Manny hasn't had a hit product in a decade and he's not the icon he was in 1980. I've visited the stores, the distribution warehouse, the corporate offices and more than 23 store locations so i do understand what you're talking about. however, what matters most is sales, margins, expenses relative to sales, and growth. BEBE can withstand another year of losses but then it will be a much smaller company (i.e. thru accelerated store closings) and have even lower sales yet still a huge unsold inventory sitting in the back. economy has risen...and people bought more trucks, houses, and iphones. the shopping malls were not a beneficiary of the recovery. look at WTSL, ARO, etc. BEBE needs a complete rebranding and refocus... not something easy to do with an inventory glut and elderly BOD fixed in their ways. it's far easier to create a new brand than buy BEBE for $50M and rebuild it... that's why Sycamore (or other PE) won't buy this company till its under $1 and Manny is completely gone. visit the financials and you may change your mind :-)

  • Reply to

    So now it's stuck here

    by hrdwkgdog Jun 17, 2015 8:07 PM
    pesotrader pesotrader Jun 18, 2015 4:30 PM Flag

    you're wrong.. i have no position, but i surely wish i had shorted the stock at $6+ after i sold my shares. in fact, as of 3:45 EST today i'm 100% in cash (i.e. sold the late-day rally) and watching several stocks for potential trades... but BEBE isn't among them.

    be honest, what's your cost-basis on BEBE cause with your last post it's a safe bet you are underwater. that's ok, we can still have an intelligent discussion and in fact i encourage you to explain your fact-based reasons why anyone should gamble on BEBE at this point in time. tia

  • Reply to

    So now it's stuck here

    by hrdwkgdog Jun 17, 2015 8:07 PM
    pesotrader pesotrader Jun 17, 2015 9:21 PM Flag

    bebe is a highly seasonal company with mid-to-late december through mid-january being their most important sales period and it's also conditioned on weather... snow and ice storms in the northeast have recently caused store closings and lower winter sales, so be aware of those factors.

    personally, i would not gamble my capital in bebe stock until after xmas. by then, Manny will have probably sold out and be close to an exit from the BOD, which could setup bebe for a major mgmt change. it also allows one some visibility into the upcoming quarter (i.e. did retail do good, was there bad weather, etc)

    the next 6-months are unlikely to see bebe file bankruptcy, witness improving sales, or see Manny exit the BOD. in other words, where's the upward catalyst? the stock could easily drop by another 50% from here and that's not a gamble i'm willing to make.

    as some people say, three shoes must drop before the bottom is even close to forming:
    1) dividend was cut
    2) Manny files to sell his shares
    3) what's the next big surprise ?

  • the 8k filing says "common stock has been eliminated, cancelled and extinguished"
    so does that mean your shares are now officially and forever worthless ?

    YES... and yet the disbelievers here still think their shares will soar on short-covering.

    btw: where's havenger ? what price did you finally sell ? your final loss was $80,000 ?

  • Reply to

    Shelf Registration Not all Gloomy

    by squidunker008 Jun 9, 2015 1:53 PM
    pesotrader pesotrader Jun 15, 2015 3:52 PM Flag

    try listening loser boy. I know Manny, Birkhold, and several of the senior staff designers and while birkhold was ceo i had some level of confidence after doing extensive research and multiple meetings that (if allowed by Manny to do the job) there was a fair chance at a turnaround. Manny has run this company in the ground since his wife left and I'd never want to own the stock without a much stronger ceo. I haven't met the current ceo but I have spoken to him on the phone and I didn't get the answers I wanted so I don't put my trust in him to accomplish a turnaround. if you in your own ridiculousness are willing to invest in this rag without even getting on a plane and visiting the exec office, then you are a fool who deserves to lose his money.

  • Reply to

    Shelf Registration Not all Gloomy

    by squidunker008 Jun 9, 2015 1:53 PM
    pesotrader pesotrader Jun 12, 2015 9:30 AM Flag

    absolutely not, this is a sale being forced by the lender against Mnny's shares, which have declined SIGNIFICANTLY since the personal loans were made. birkhold's exit and the failed turnaround likely made the lender more concerned about their collateral. BEBE isn't LULU and honestly there's nothing left in this company worth saving... even the brand name is practically worthless. as for hot chicks at BEBE, they're obviously not buying even at discount prices so don't expect BEBE to avoid bankruptcy unless Sycamore picks up the pieces under $1, which I doubt. my advice: stay away from BEBE and invest in something that has a future. i consider myself lucky to have sold at $6+ and made $100k profit but i never looked back because i had conversations with birkhold and lost faith in him. if you believe in and know personally the current ceo, good luck to you.

  • Reply to

    Cash is king

    by ekshoppers Jun 10, 2015 10:36 PM
    pesotrader pesotrader Jun 11, 2015 8:38 AM Flag

    same store sales for the past several years are a disaster
    increased "one-time" expenses from accelerated store closings
    inventory buildup for holiday ad post-holiday sales didn't move
    ongoing loses on the investment portfolio (very illiquid)

    keep in mind that the "economies of scale" which are supposed to work in your favor when the company is expanding and growing tend to hurt you when the company closes stores, doesn't sell out what it produces, still has raw materials purchase contracts, and maintains most of those large fixed costs such as designers, distribution warehouse, two playtime condos for execs (i.e. think modelsboinkparties), and the deadwood BOD. ever since Manny's wife divorced him this company has been a massive failure. she was obviously the real talent behind the original business.

  • Reply to


    by vandy2014 Jun 10, 2015 6:34 PM
    pesotrader pesotrader Jun 11, 2015 8:22 AM Flag

    yes, and it goes way beyond just the "connected car" ...

    According to a new report from Tractica, licenses for voice and speech recognition software will increase from 49.0 million in 2015 to 565.8 million worldwide by 2024. The market intelligence firm forecasts that consumer applications such as mobile device authentication will represent the largest opportunity for speaker recognition technology adoption, with strong growth in other use cases as disparate as patient medical record access, wearable device authentication and commands, government IT system protection, call centers, and automotive controls, among many others.

    “Speech and voice recognition are a microcosm of the entire biometrics market: mature technology that is finally finding a market, with abundant opportunity over the next 10 years,” says principal analyst Bob Lockhart.

5.14-0.23(-4.28%)Jul 2 4:00 PMEDT