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Alexza Pharmaceuticals Inc. Message Board

peteg626 10 posts  |  Last Activity: Oct 9, 2014 6:35 PM Member since: Jul 13, 2012
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  • Reply to

    Crossman's comments on the release...

    by mpoklink Oct 9, 2014 4:22 PM
    peteg626 peteg626 Oct 9, 2014 6:35 PM Flag

    The value in JOEZ may not be realized until they get bought out but the day will eventually come. This is a company with annual sales of roughly $200M with margins in the 46% range and they are trading at a market cap of $70M. Annual gross profit is ballpark $92M (200 x 46%) with upside as production efficiencies are realized. If someone already in the business comes in and buys them at $150M (and pays off the debt of $100M for a true cost of $250M) they can turn JOEZ into a goldmine. Assuming the purchaser needs half the operating margin to manage the business (would cost less bc they are already in the business and can integrate efficiencies with existing ops) then the purchaser acquired a business generating $46M in operating income for a $250M investment. The day will come but seems more likely when we get to the date at which the current debt notes can be paid off early ( I believe sept '15).... Long term this is a no brainer but may take a lil more patience.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    I CAN SEE IT!

    by derrick911smith Sep 10, 2014 2:51 PM
    peteg626 peteg626 Sep 10, 2014 2:55 PM Flag

    I'm not in the stock, but I think many ppl here will agree with me that you're an idiot

  • Reply to

    Buyout ?

    by drmlk3 Jul 28, 2014 9:49 AM
    peteg626 peteg626 Jul 28, 2014 12:00 PM Flag

    Agree completely on all points

  • Reply to

    Buyout ?

    by drmlk3 Jul 28, 2014 9:49 AM
    peteg626 peteg626 Jul 28, 2014 10:58 AM Flag

    rics - I appreciate the optimism but let's keep it realistic. Touching $3 by year-end is realistic with a range likely in the $2's. $3-$4 following the Q4 report is doable but wouldn't stretch as far to say it's a given. If I was offered $2.50 today without having to wait I can't say I wouldn't take it.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Look at the one-month chart please….

    by davidlovesjustine Jul 27, 2014 9:32 AM
    peteg626 peteg626 Jul 27, 2014 5:22 PM Flag

    That's just about correct. They are only issued once the debt is converted to shares. Hudson mgmt received the convertible notes as part of the purchase with a conversion price of $1.78, so they would likely only convert those notes once the pps is significantly enough above $1.78. They cannot be converted until September '16 if memory serves me correct.

    You are correct that when converted it will knock off roughly $1M quarterly in interest or $600k quarterly tax adjusted which equates to $.12 annually in eps on the 19M shares. The party then starts when they can pay down their remaining debt faster as well cutting off another $8M in interest annually. I'd say its very realistic to get to $.25 in eps over the next 4 years which should get JOEZ to the $5 range reasonably. The hard part for investors will be to see the long term opportunity and not take the double when it comes in the $2s.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Look at the one-month chart please….

    by davidlovesjustine Jul 27, 2014 9:32 AM
    peteg626 peteg626 Jul 27, 2014 2:45 PM Flag

    I think most longs would agree, but I believe the slow steady climb will last to Q3 earnings, then we get the real pop over $2 when investors can better value the company based on the rollout of cost efficiencies implemented. These efficiencies will add $.02 - $.03 to the bottom line quarterly. With breakeven sales of $47M achieved in Q1 we have lots of positives to look forward to. Q3 results should come in around the $.03-$.04 range and Q4 in the $.05-$.06 range.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    New trend

    by peteg626 Jul 25, 2014 12:28 PM
    peteg626 peteg626 Jul 25, 2014 1:55 PM Flag

    Another positve was that the increase in authorized shares for mgmt stock comp was rejected at the last meeting. Current mgmt knows they're on the clock and that now is the time to see results on the bottom line. No better incentive than job security.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • then price action will return to upside. Have my order set at $1.28 so I don't miss it.

  • peteg626 by peteg626 Jul 25, 2014 12:28 PM Flag

    looks to be in place.... with the big block purchases over the last few days and the operating efficiencies coming into play on top of new product launches we should see a nice move up until the next earnings report. Looking for $1.75 - $2 as a realistic target by early October before the Q3 report.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Big Move Appears Imminent

    by runjjd Jul 24, 2014 11:27 AM
    peteg626 peteg626 Jul 24, 2014 2:04 PM Flag

    monster block purchases the last few days. Anyone else notice the 250K block purchases the last couple days?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

ALXA
2.21+0.13(+6.25%)Oct 21 4:00 PMEDT

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