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Microvision Inc. Message Board

peter.jungmann 114 posts  |  Last Activity: Dec 20, 2014 2:07 PM Member since: Oct 14, 2010
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  • Reply to

    LiveMap Mobile Helmet using PicoP technology

    by joe_spaz2003 Dec 20, 2014 1:47 PM
    peter.jungmann peter.jungmann Dec 20, 2014 2:07 PM Flag

    Good find Joe!

  • peter.jungmann peter.jungmann Dec 4, 2014 9:57 PM Flag

    I asked one of the board members at the recent stockholder meeting about buying shares and he told me it took him about six months of persistence to find an acceptable window to purchase stock.

    They want to buy stock doesn't mean they're legally able to. Be worried if they can buy and sell it freely.

  • Reply to

    bill ford interview

    by mvisentrepeneur Nov 19, 2014 8:38 AM
    peter.jungmann peter.jungmann Nov 19, 2014 2:40 PM Flag

    Thanks. My own vote goes with Magna. I could be wrong, but it seems to be the right fit. --- and Magna mentions Microvision a lot in its patents.

  • peter.jungmann peter.jungmann Nov 12, 2014 3:41 PM Flag

    I could see that Geo, except that they sold 900+ positions -- all by differing amounts. 90% of some 87% of others, in different share amounts, etc.... if you're screwing up your records that bad, we have serious problems.

    If I'm shown to be wrong, I'll happily admit it, but I'm very skeptical of the other theory.

  • peter.jungmann peter.jungmann Nov 12, 2014 9:34 AM Flag

    Seriously, go look at the State of Michigan on the Nasdaq site. For them not to have sold, a thousand "clerical errors" -- all different, would have had to happen.

    I think it's more likely there was a boo boo on one SEC form than on the entire portfolio as represented on the Nasdaq site. Call me crazy.

  • peter.jungmann peter.jungmann Nov 12, 2014 8:51 AM Flag

    The Nasdaq site has detailed information about many institutional stock holders.

    The Nasdaq site shows that the State of Michigan sold most of their shares of everything. (and bought 5 billion dollars worth of Berkshire Hathaway)

    Michigan sold most of their shares of Microvision (but not all).

    That Michigan retains any shares of Microvision IS a positive message about Microvision. That they had a guy participating in the recent conference call .. is also positive message about Microvision.

    What appears to be bad news isn't always bad news.

  • peter.jungmann peter.jungmann Nov 11, 2014 6:34 PM Flag

    I think they're selling components to retain control, not to make money on that part of the transaction. They state very clearly they are a licensing company.

    You don't have to make money on the parts if you're making it on the licensing.

  • peter.jungmann peter.jungmann Nov 11, 2014 3:39 PM Flag

    Could be a few pennies (I've seen some as low as $0.14 ... as a list price) and as high as $50. As this would be a "component" order (not the full picop...) my best guess is that we end up on the very low side of this range... but it's all guesswork at this point.

    Microvision is a licensing company though... it is possible they're selling the tooling with with to make the key components(the language in the release doesn't rule this out)... in which case, there's no maximum size to the order.... and the money would come later with licensing fees. But again... all guess work

  • Reply to

    Production Engineering Expertise Needed

    by astockjoc Nov 8, 2014 12:10 PM
    peter.jungmann peter.jungmann Nov 9, 2014 4:37 PM Flag

    My guess is that they have all the kinks out of creating additional assembly lines... and they are consistently making quality PicoP engines at this time. (and prepared to add assembly lines.)

  • Reply to

    Running the numbers

    by peter.jungmann Nov 9, 2014 11:52 AM
    peter.jungmann peter.jungmann Nov 9, 2014 4:26 PM Flag

    Pardon me.

    I'm always going back and re-checking things. I double-checked my math on this and realized I had made an error. It happens from time to time, and I'm very eager to correct them when I make them. (On the line of people.)

    It was always my second-string example. The first string example is more difficult to describe, but a much better illustration of the point: If you were to put people in boxes, and stack them together in a cube, how big would the cube be?

    Most guesses I have heard on this question are off by a significant factor: The reality is relatively easy to compute. In round numbers it is easy to calculate. (I use Wolfram Alpha to help with the cube root part, checking the work is relatively easy.)

    The average person on earth will be around 5 feet tall. (about a third of the worlds population is under 14 years old.) So, at one foot front to back, 2 feet side to side and 5 feet tall, you get a nice, round 10 cubic feet per person.

    Seven Billion people on earth will require 70,000,000,000 (seventy billion cubic feet). The entire population of the earth fits in a cube that is 4,121 feet on a side. (substantially less than 1 cubic mile!)

    Sorry about the error.

  • Reply to

    Running the numbers

    by peter.jungmann Nov 9, 2014 11:52 AM
    peter.jungmann peter.jungmann Nov 9, 2014 1:28 PM Flag

    Sorry, this was the 3rd attempt to get the second part in there.

  • Reply to

    Running the numbers

    by peter.jungmann Nov 9, 2014 11:52 AM
    peter.jungmann peter.jungmann Nov 9, 2014 1:28 PM Flag

    A friend I’d showed the ShowWX to once, asked me how high the price of Microvision could get. I replied that it had been a while since I’d run the numbers, so if he hung around we’d run them together. The resulting conversation was something like what’s going to happen in the following paragraphs.

    The first thing we did is just count ONLY smartphones to run the numbers to keep it conservative. We know that PicoP will be able to go in cars, in portable game consoles, and a bunch of other things, but we’d keep it to smart phones. “How many of the smart phones that will be produced do you think will want little projectors?” I asked. “ALL OF THEM!” was the response.

    I talked him in to dialing it back to 10%. There will be competition. Not all of the phones will get little projectors, but 10% is a reasonable number of the world wide production of smartphones who could get PicoP. Adoption won’t be instant, but once it starts it can be fast. (This is to understand the size of the MARKET for PicoP.)

    On checking a number of sources, 2014 smartphone shipments were around a billion units. That’s a million millions. That’s a lot of phones.

    If we hold PicoP’s share of the market to 10% of smartphones, that’s a market of 100 million -- each year!

    100 Million units. (100,000,000 *$12?)/43,000,000 * PE ratio = stockprice

    At a PE ratio of 80 the number is really nice.
    At the PE ratio of GoPro or Amazon the number is considerably better.

    Production of electronics starts slow. (as we are all too aware, very painfully slow.) However, once production starts, and the difficulties are worked out of production, we can then expect that the production growth rate can be like a doubling problem. The first assembly line is difficult. The next few become progressively easier. Once production begins in earnest (now) production acceleration can happen very quickly. If we have another dilution between now and the rocket launch it won’t be the best thing for us, but in a couple of years

  • peter.jungmann peter.jungmann Nov 8, 2014 10:23 PM Flag

    Have you ever heard of a multi-year commercial agreement announcement that didn't say both what was being produced, and what minimum quantities would be produced?

    If it's announced this year.... we get a product announcement this year.

  • Reply to

    Production Engineering Expertise Needed

    by astockjoc Nov 8, 2014 12:10 PM
    peter.jungmann peter.jungmann Nov 8, 2014 1:42 PM Flag

    It's difficult to answer, generally speaking, creating the first assembly line for something is very difficult and can take a long time.

    If they are using previously untested components, then they have to test each of the components & each component's assembly line, to be sure of consistent quality coming from it.

    Then the FIRST line is very difficult to set up... there are always problems and setbacks. The task is to coordinate a lot of different variables for the first time and that's very hard.

    After about the third assembly line set up in parallel, it becomes easier.. they have figured out all the pitfalls, the specs, and putting another together is duplicating what was done previously with great difficulty.

    Creating upgrades to the new assembly line is tweaking individual variables instead of the entire line. Much easier.

  • peter.jungmann peter.jungmann Nov 8, 2014 11:59 AM Flag

    You are dismissive of the board. These are people who I respect who have worked very hard for us. You assume and suggest they will make bad decisions, you apparently prefer the idea of debt.

    Debt especially now, would be a very dumb idea.

    You have chosen a very odd time to come forward with such suggestions, which tells me you have an ulterior motive. That you wanted some kind of takeover a couple of months ago also tells me you have an ulterior motive.

    We won't need any further dilution -- so why bring it up as though you think it's even plausible? The headline is -- "no further dilution will be needed."

  • peter.jungmann peter.jungmann Nov 8, 2014 11:11 AM Flag

    I'm saying it's obvious they don't need it. It will be further obvious they don't need it in January.

    Dilution is off the table. They can increase production greatly with minimal if any cost to the company (it's in the CC, check it out.)

    Debt is stupid.

    After signing a "multi-year commercial agreement" the stock price will be double what it is today, and if they want to use the remaining ATM to pay bonuses for themselves, that would be cool with me. They've earned it.

    Again, I very much question your motives for starting this conversation now - I suspect you've been quietly in league with the basher corps for a while.

  • peter.jungmann peter.jungmann Nov 8, 2014 10:53 AM Flag

    Before January, it will be very obvious that no dilution will be needed ever again.

    There will be options for the company to sell further ATM.

    I hope they use the ATM and make the whole thing a huge bonus for AT, Turner, the board and the employees.

  • Reply to

    question

    by luderella Nov 7, 2014 11:57 AM
    peter.jungmann peter.jungmann Nov 7, 2014 12:47 PM Flag

    There are a number of possibilities. We could make a list, or read it as "the projector goes with a smartphone" --- I'm sure people will love it and buy it either way.

  • Reply to

    question

    by luderella Nov 7, 2014 11:57 AM
    peter.jungmann peter.jungmann Nov 7, 2014 12:04 PM Flag

    I expect they will do what they say they're going to do, which is put it in a smartphone.

    Microvision announces that it is working with "a major global consumer electronics brand to develop a display engine for use in an innovative smartphone product.

    This new customer, listed on the Fortune Global 500, is a leading name in consumer electronics. The companies plan to collaborate on this development activity targeting a possible second half 2015 product introduction."

    Note the word "IN"

    They have since confirmed second half introduction.

  • Reply to

    Needs to hold $1.68....

    by astockjoc Nov 6, 2014 3:00 PM
    peter.jungmann peter.jungmann Nov 7, 2014 11:54 AM Flag

    A multiyear commercial agreement is expected before the end of the year with SONY.

    If the shorts want to give us all their money, that's fine.

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