Couldn't close below $12 (the prior intraday low). Shorts thought they had it easy. Maybe not so easy.
Again with your $9 target? I wonder how long it will take you to rescind it this time.
As for "nothing but air to $9", where do you get that from? I see a month of consolidation right at overhead resistance at $10, which occured between 11/20/13 and 12/17/13. Following the breakout on 12/17, the $10 resistance level became support. Plus you have the 200-dma at $11. The volume is good to see above the 200-dma.
It's customary to use the sitting president to define a national disaster. it's not my problem if you take it personally. And furthermore, Bush had 8 years to counterbalance Clinton. He could have fired Greenspan and put a hawk in the FED to cool the obvious and totally ridiculous and perilous housing bubble. It's not like this problem came out of left field.
Thanks Robo. I'm not worried about Q3 earnings. I think the market is pricing in a lot of pessimism, which brings opportunity. The only way they disappoint is if the CEO is way off in his guidance from the recent conference call. He said the remainder of FY'14 revenue will be roughly evenly divided between Q3 and Q4. They have a minimum $36 million in revenue to make up in 2H in order to meet or beat Armstrong's guidance of flat FY'14 sales. That means Q3 will show around $18 million revenue. Last year, Q3 revenue came in at $14.8 million if I recall. And EPS should be sharply higher with the added leverage from sales.
Looking at his form 4 filings, it is clear that this COO went on a massive open market buying spree at the worst time. Starting in early 2008 (actually from 3/12 - 5/27/08), this COO bought a total of 35,550 shares, over half of which were at a price of $11.50. Here is the listing of his purchases:
3/12/08 - purchased 20,550 shares at $11.50
5/21/08 - purchased 6,025 shares at $9.11
5/22/08 - purchased 1,800 shares at $9.11
5/23/08 - purchased 6,175 shares at $9.20
5/27/08 - purchased 1,000 shares at $9.05
So he spent $373K out of pocket. And then within 6 months, the stock crashed to $2.50 during the great George W. Bush market crash of 2008. Isolating these purchases, he was literally wiped out until the end of 2013, when the stock rebounded. He just recently started selling off this entire 35,550 share bundle of ill-timed purchases. I notice that he has left himself today holding on to no less than 46k shares of common stock.
Guess how many shares he was holding when he finished his open market buying spree back in early 2008? Roughly 43k shares.
Now, he did go on to buy an additonal 37k shares in the $3 range later in 2008 and early 2009, but these were probably an afterthought following his determined $373k outlay at prices that were over 200% higher just a few months prior. He had no idea in early 2008 that he would be buying at $3 just a few nonths later. Otherwise, he never would have made those purchases at $11.50 in the first place.
The point is that his baseline holding seems to be around 40 - 50k shares. And his recent sales could simply be a portfolio adjustment measure.
Notice the title of Gomes' article. It is different from all his others. Normally, when he introduces a new stock, he titles the article such as he did with DLIA recently. That title was: "Shares of DLIA are posied to triple". And likewise with GLUU before that.
But notice this is not the case with AERO. The title of this new Seeking Alpha article is "Riding High with AeroGrow".
And in the concluding paragraph, Gomes uses a sly twist on the word triple. He says: "AERO is the only marijuana stock in the Poised To Triple portfolio." Notice, he didn't say the stock is going to triple from here.
Yes, it is currently in the "Poised to Triple" portfolio, but he doesn't tell you the price at which it was entered into the portfolio. All I can tell you is that in this case you get what you pay for, and if you are not a paying subscriber to PTT Research, then you are not entitled to the best timed information in the first place.
"...Whether it is that or the COO and a director selling"
Well, you can forget about the director's tranasactions. It is absolutely meaningless. He flipped 8k options, and is holding onto 60k shares. In the world of insider selling, it hardly even registers.
That leaves just one other insider (Hoefing) who sold any shares after the Q2 earnings report. When I hear people crying that the "insiders" are selling, it gives the impression that the entire staff is jumping out the window prior to the upcoming earnings report. That is just plain misleading.
I agree. Let him blow his load and good ridance. Sooner the better. The guy is a placeholder, IMO. Salesmen are a dime a dozen.
"...As COO he may not have a feel for the upcoming quarterly numbers, but any good COO sure has a broad feel for how bushiness is going"
Well, he was just promoted to COO last month, so I don't know what his mind could have processed in such short tenure that would lead him to liquidate. Secondly, with less than a month on the job, we really don't know if he's a good COO in the first place - rendering moot your point that "any good COO sure has a broad feel for how bushiness is going." Thirdly, the guy was in sales and marketing his whole life. Now he's an operations genius with a masters in market timing?
This guy is too funny. Another 20,000 shares gone, including 7k today at $14.30. The good news is that he only has 46k shares left to sell and then he's all done. He can do that in a day. He seems pretty determined.
I think you should keep asking the same question over and over again, so eventually the COO will be forced to sign up with a Yahoo account to answer your question directly and tell you what he did with the money he got from selling some shares of PRCP.
"...Ariel needs to lob a phone call into Armstrong and explain how bad this looks juxtaposed to all the ebullient commentary w/regard to Helix."
Hansy, something tells me you're a secret bull on PRCP, and you just like to play devil's advocate in public. Am I right? Cause if I'm wrong, I can't imagine why you would even care whether Ariel makes phone calls to management to correct their behaviour. These are concerns that go beyond those of an indifferent observer. I think.
"...these guys just don't get how Wall Street works"
That's exactly why a lot of insiders make the mistake of selling well before their stock peaks. Just a fact of life. Risk-averse, short-sighted, SOB's who want their money now, and don't care a wit about Wall Street's ways. That said, this COO fellow still held 75% of his common even though the stock is up a ton from last year. If he had been selling while the stock was tanking, just think about how that would have registered on your smell test. This is nothing in comparison. And I've seen it all.
Puts the company one step closer to being a real company. The street is skeptical of CEO's who wear all the hats. Jim Reeder departure could be cost-saving measure. Not sure about that one.
"...But magic if you were hypothetically an insider I bet you would not be selling at all, not one single share given your long term faith in the company's products and technology."
You mean like the CEO, Armstrong?
I used to trade mainly on insider transactions over 10 years ago. Theoretically it makes sense to follow the insiders, but in practice it is not very predictive. Sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn't. In retrospect, I'd say the odds were about 50/50. When it worked, I patted myself on the back thinking I was so shrewd. But there were plenty of times I'd jump on a large insider buy and the company woud report terrrible numbers the next quarter and the stock tanked. Or I would see a large amount of insider sales and sell out, only to witness a record breaking quarter thereafter and a major gap up (see GLUU chart this month for perfect example of this kind of fakeout). Nowadays I don't pay any attention to small insider sales, and only a little attention to medium size sales - especially if they have been selling all the way up. I found the only time it pays to be cautious is if you got a key officer who hasn't sold a single share for like 10 years, and all of a sudden he sells like 90% of his holdings. That is the mother of all sell signals.
Can you do me a favor and buy 44 million shares and send this Katula outfit back to the Netherlands please?
Are you saying they did not suggest to you the stock was a good buy? The reason he called is to put this stock on your radar screen, and for you to hopefully buy. I wouldn't be surpised if these usolicited calls spooked some investors who sold - fearing a pump and dump. In retrospect, that was the right move, because the stock is down 30% since the cold call campaign began. Shouldn't it be going the other direction? The reason it's not is because PIPE investors are taking quick profits and overwhelming any and all buy volume generated from the pump campaign. I had a feeling this was a bad omen from the start.
As a reminder, this stock was trading at $0.34 back On December 9, 2013, when a company called Finanical Proflies, Inc was hired to pump the stock. They started making unsolicited phone calls to people who had dialed into previous TALN conference calls, urging them to buy the stock. Look at what has happened since then. The stock has gone straight down, and will probably test support at $0.20 soon. Evidence of a pump and dump scheme involving the PIPE investors who bought tens of millions of shares for $.09 last June. What a disgrace. When Matt from Financial Profiles calls again, tell him you will buy at $0.09 and hang up the phone. Don't let Katula use you like an ATM so they can liquidate their position for huge profit.
d442125, the reason for the stock pop, it started late on Friday, when Gomes pre-released his SA article on Friday after 2:00 PM at his own blog site, called PTT Insider. It is free to public, you just have to submit your email address. He has a big following which follows him for free on that blog.