"...Ariel needs to lob a phone call into Armstrong and explain how bad this looks juxtaposed to all the ebullient commentary w/regard to Helix."
Hansy, something tells me you're a secret bull on PRCP, and you just like to play devil's advocate in public. Am I right? Cause if I'm wrong, I can't imagine why you would even care whether Ariel makes phone calls to management to correct their behaviour. These are concerns that go beyond those of an indifferent observer. I think.
"...these guys just don't get how Wall Street works"
That's exactly why a lot of insiders make the mistake of selling well before their stock peaks. Just a fact of life. Risk-averse, short-sighted, SOB's who want their money now, and don't care a wit about Wall Street's ways. That said, this COO fellow still held 75% of his common even though the stock is up a ton from last year. If he had been selling while the stock was tanking, just think about how that would have registered on your smell test. This is nothing in comparison. And I've seen it all.
Puts the company one step closer to being a real company. The street is skeptical of CEO's who wear all the hats. Jim Reeder departure could be cost-saving measure. Not sure about that one.
"...But magic if you were hypothetically an insider I bet you would not be selling at all, not one single share given your long term faith in the company's products and technology."
You mean like the CEO, Armstrong?
I used to trade mainly on insider transactions over 10 years ago. Theoretically it makes sense to follow the insiders, but in practice it is not very predictive. Sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn't. In retrospect, I'd say the odds were about 50/50. When it worked, I patted myself on the back thinking I was so shrewd. But there were plenty of times I'd jump on a large insider buy and the company woud report terrrible numbers the next quarter and the stock tanked. Or I would see a large amount of insider sales and sell out, only to witness a record breaking quarter thereafter and a major gap up (see GLUU chart this month for perfect example of this kind of fakeout). Nowadays I don't pay any attention to small insider sales, and only a little attention to medium size sales - especially if they have been selling all the way up. I found the only time it pays to be cautious is if you got a key officer who hasn't sold a single share for like 10 years, and all of a sudden he sells like 90% of his holdings. That is the mother of all sell signals.
Can you do me a favor and buy 44 million shares and send this Katula outfit back to the Netherlands please?
Are you saying they did not suggest to you the stock was a good buy? The reason he called is to put this stock on your radar screen, and for you to hopefully buy. I wouldn't be surpised if these usolicited calls spooked some investors who sold - fearing a pump and dump. In retrospect, that was the right move, because the stock is down 30% since the cold call campaign began. Shouldn't it be going the other direction? The reason it's not is because PIPE investors are taking quick profits and overwhelming any and all buy volume generated from the pump campaign. I had a feeling this was a bad omen from the start.
As a reminder, this stock was trading at $0.34 back On December 9, 2013, when a company called Finanical Proflies, Inc was hired to pump the stock. They started making unsolicited phone calls to people who had dialed into previous TALN conference calls, urging them to buy the stock. Look at what has happened since then. The stock has gone straight down, and will probably test support at $0.20 soon. Evidence of a pump and dump scheme involving the PIPE investors who bought tens of millions of shares for $.09 last June. What a disgrace. When Matt from Financial Profiles calls again, tell him you will buy at $0.09 and hang up the phone. Don't let Katula use you like an ATM so they can liquidate their position for huge profit.
d442125, the reason for the stock pop, it started late on Friday, when Gomes pre-released his SA article on Friday after 2:00 PM at his own blog site, called PTT Insider. It is free to public, you just have to submit your email address. He has a big following which follows him for free on that blog.
Hey Dr. Moose, since you just signed up with PTT as paid subscriber 45 days ago, that means you weren't around to witness the euphoria of the original Gomes pick of DLIA back in November, when it was trading at $1.20 and everybody was so excited. It was Mark's second pick since launching his paid service, and people were so excited at first. You really saved yourself a lot of pain by coming in late. Most people who bought DLIA on the day Gomes first recommended it had to pay up near $1.40, because the stock popped so high. So you can imagine their pain in the following weeks, when the stock lost 50% from their buy point and Mark did not use a stop loss. And these were paying subscribers. Not the freeloaders who are now buying under a dollar, and for the first time. It's amazing when i read the Q&A of Gomes' Seeking Alpha article from this morning. All the freeloaders are saying thank you to Mark for this great pick which is up a lot in one day, and he replies to them with a bow. It's as if he totally forgot about the people who were paying him subscription fees for what they thought would be the best timing of picks. He just doesn't seem to get it. It's really offputting to watch, from the perspective of an early paid subscriber. Just makes me cringe.
Hey Dr. Moose, congrats on selling some stock to the Gomes freeloaders/latecomers for small profit. You used the recent Gomes free S/A article to sell to the sheep. That was the right move. Gomes can only pump this stock for so long before it falls again. First time he said BUY was at $1.20, and sure enough his paying subscribers got mangled in a bloodbath. It took all of two days for the market to erase the Gomes effect and reverse course. This company is on death watch. Be careful.
Sentiment: Strong Sell
"...All I can say is that I have had this stock for years. Even forgot about it. Now that I have it and am looking at it, I hate it. It doesn't seem to have any interest in the shareholder"
This is a truly amazing statement. First, you tell us you don't keep track of which stocks are in your portfolio. Then you tell us, one day you decide to look, and you find you've been holding this stock and now you hate it - even though the stock is up 130% in two years. It's also up 400% in four years. It's up 500% since the bottom of the George W. Bush crash of 2008, and it's up 1,500% since the bottom of the tech crash in 2001. The only way you could have been hurt badly is if you bought prior to the great tech bubble, between 1996 and 1997, but the same applies to many NASDAQ tech stocks from that period anyway.
If you bid for the stock now, you are just giving Katula an easy chance to liquidate most of their 44 million share holdings. Don't let them use you as an ATM machine. Everyone cancel your bids and flush out this Katula overhang once and for all. We need a large volume capitualtion before it will be safe to buy. Otherwise this slow drip will continue for many months to come, regardless of earnings reports. (BTW, the Q3 earnings report and outlook was very good, yet the stock has been selling off ever since, due to Katula taking profits on their $0.09 PIPE investment). So patience is in order. Katula has 44 million shares to sell through at a huge profit, and judging from the chart, they are a long way off from equilibrium.
Just think about that for a second. His paying subscribers were urged to buy at $1.20 back in November, now the public gets to buy in at a 42% discount today (see his PTT blog for free signup). His write-up today is nearly identical to his original write-up back in November. So what is the point of paying for a PTT subscription if you're going to get the picks for free anyway, and sometimes even at a better market price? And you get to see the original write-up to boot! So what are you paying for? Part of his promotion to subscribe to PTT is that he says you need to be among the first to read his picks to get the best prices. But is that really true? Look at DLIA. His subscribers paid $1.20, and the public was able to get in at $0.70. So who got the better deal? His subscribers or the public? Be honest.
The news is you're a bozo clown sheep trying to pump this stock back up to $1.40 so you can break even and regain a small bit of respect for your fallen god/pied piper who drove you over this cliff.
It's even worse than I thought. It will take years to recover, if at all. Meanwhile, the convertible notes take their pound of flesh every quarter. Oh, and by the way, the earnings sucked and they have no long-term plan for success. The CEO said they are in the "early stages" of a turnaround. That is putting it mildly. It's more like survival mode. After they blow through their cash, I wouldn't be surprised to see a BK filing within two years. Same-store sales are cratering, it will take all they got just to muffle the death rattle. Just another fadish mall retailer soon to be added to the trash heap of history.
Sentiment: Strong Sell
The former CEO of Talon did a recent Youtube video in which he talks about his job with Coats. Look how polished this guy looks and talks. Even his hair impeccable. What a salesman. Good Lord!
To see the video, go to Youtube and search for "Stephen Forte - Global Sales".
Hello Mickey, you made me chuckle when you described Larry like a hostage reading ransom demands at the Noble TEN conference. So true. It was painful to watch. But I thought Lonnie did okay. He's no Steve Forte (former CEO) who was all flash and no substance. By the way, Mr. Forte is now working for a competitor (Coats zipper and apparel) and he's giving a business conference himself soon. Google "Stephen Forte/Coats" if interested.
Mickey, a large private investor (Kutula Group, Netherlands) bought 42% of the company back on July 12, at a price of $.09/share. So he bought around 39 million shares for a total price of $3.5 million. A few weeks later, his $3.5 million investment was worth over $15 million. Today, he is still up 160% on his investment after 7 months. It's hard to belive that he has not been taking major profits all this while, keeping the stock price depressed by creating a huge overhang in supply. Keep in mind, he only has to hold onto 15 million shares to retain a board seat with the company (as per PIPE agreement).
So here's what I think happened. While most retail investors thought this stock would shoot up to a dollar because of all the recent positive developments, in fact hte srtock has been under pressure because the PIPE investors are unwinding stock. And that is why Lonnie has been giving so many road shows over the past several months. It wasn't to increase the stock price, it was to generate volume, i.e. trading volume, so the PIPE investors could liquidate some or most of their holdings without damaging the stock too much. I think that is the reality we have to concede. Because there is no other explanation for this stock to be under this kind of pressure - after a resurgance in profitability and growth, in the midst of a broad bull market and the exposure of several recent investor presentations. I think when the PIPE investors stop selling, this stock will lift. But who knows long or at what price that will be?
Mickey, with this stock in slow collapse, it appears that they haven't picked up any institutional support, even after three road shows. I wonder what it was that scared people away? A new strategy is called for, and that would be several rounds of major insider buying on the open market. Since the insiders were going around telling everybody that the stock was cheap in the $.40's, then surely it must be really cheap in the low $.20's. Or so they will say! And of course they always say "buy". But will they eat their own cooking? It's like the parent telling their children - "do as I say, not as I do". Nobody takes that serioulsy.
Today, the stock closed below the 200 day moving average for the first time in many months. Next week will be very important to see if this technical breach leads to an avalanche in the stock price, or if it is a false breakdown.
As for me, I'm waiting for one of two things before I buy:
1) Either a price that is closer to where the insiders bought out CVC (which was $.09, but I'll settle for $.10-12).
2) I see the insiders start filing a bunch of form 4 open market purchases for a significant amount. I want to see several hundreds of thousands of dollars combined. None of that phoney $500 buy stuff to get on the insider buy sheets.
So far, my patience has saved me a ton of money. I was going to buy a load of shares in the low $.30's, but I reasoned that I could get a better price if I just wait because most serious investors aren't going to pay up by 300% above where the insiders took under the company just a few months ago. As the stock gets closer to their buy price of $.09, it will be a safer investment.
Take care, and thanks for keeping me company.
The March quarter is half-way done. I think Armstrong has the pulse of things. He said the remainder of FY'14 revenue will be roughly evenly divided between Q3 and Q4. They have a minimum $36 million in revenue to make up in 2H, in order to meet or beat Armstrong's guidance of flat FY'14 sales. That means Q3 will show around $18 million revenue. Last year, Q3 came in at $14.8 if I recall. So EPS should be sharply higher with the added leverage. The market won't be disappointed. My guess is that the stock bases somewhere down here for a week or two, and then slowly ramps up back to $17 before earnings are reported in May.