Mickey, I always enjoy reading your commentary. Very funny and accurate (suicide hotline, that was a good one). I agree, it seemed Lonnie was blaming the weakness on the whole sector scaling back in Q1. But wouldn't he have known this at the time of the previous conference call in May? He gave no indication back then of a slow down. And he said they feel the industry effects in real time, so he should have known back then. If he did sandbag on purpose, that would make sense since after the call he and Larry were each awarded 1 million options with a strike price at a price average over the previous 5 days from grant. So now they get cheap options, right on time. One bit of good news is that book value is increasing, cash is up and debt is down. So some moving parts are on track. If they can just steadily pay down the debt without doing anything stupid (like acquiring a company and blowing up the balance sheet) then the stock should find its footing. But with these guys you never know. Every time it seems things are on the right track, the rug gets pulled out from under them. Maybe it's the Forte curse.
"...they seem to have figured out ways to monetize even moderate games very well."
The problem is that even with the success of moderate games, it doesn't move the needle in terms of net income. They are still in need of the rare blockbuster like KKH to move the needle. KKH has put tens of millions of dollars into their coffers. You can't say that about all their moderate games combined. When KKH fizzles out, they are back to square one until they stumble accross the next blockbuster. Their operating income will always be lumpy, which will make this stock extremely volatile. The next two quarters will look great in terms of net income. But the market is looking beyond that. It is KKH that is keeping this stock above $5. Without KKH, this is a $3.50 stock. Same valuation as the last secondary offering, which incorprated the value of all their moderate games + Deer Hunter.
CNBC @7:30 AM, Becky Quick cites Journal report that Apple will feature sapphire in larger iPhone and Smart Watch. The first sapphire display screens will come off production lines this month.
The best hedge fund manager in the world reported in Form 13F that his fund increased their position in FB from 478,500 shares to 3,585,329 shares as of 6/31/14. He probably bought at an average price somewhere between $60 and $63. Facebook now represents one of his top 10 stock holdings in the Appalossa Fund. This is a big change from March, when it was his 3rd smallest position in the fund.
Look what happened to KING. The market senses a repeat here. When the Kim Kardashian game peaks and goes #$%$ up, what then?
Okay, some news is out. Turns out it was surgery for a "condition" that he has had for 20 years, and he is expected to return to work soon. It was also mentioned in the SEC filings. I don't know what condition could linger for 20 years and need surgery. Maybe orthopedic? At any rate, at least we know it wasn't a bad car accident. I guess that's good.
Form 4 filing is out tonight. She bought 60,000 shares. Only $12,000 worth, but better than nothing. If she keeps buying that would mean something.
The market is re-valuing the entire mobile gaming sector after KING's earnings report. As KING goes down, it will drag down the entire sector. KING has all the cash in the world to grow, and yet they pretty much said they hit the wall by declaring a huge dividend.
I really think this is the reason why the stock couldn't hold the AH highs. They even mentioned Ulman's absence on CNBC.
Maybe it was a biopsy or a car accident and the results and treatment has yet to be determined. I am long this stock through call leaps, and it baffles me why a CEO would schedule elective surgery to coincide with an earnings call. Unless of course, it wasn't elective :( holding my breath for Ulmann's health.
The CEO couldn't be on the call because he is recovering from an operation. No further details were given. This is incredible. Who the heck schedules an operation right before an earnings call, unless it's an emergency (like cancer). This is why the stock is dropping like a rock from it's high in after hours trading.
He said it's going to $90 because of first grade arithmetic.
Then Guy Adami comes on CNBC Fast Money and says it's going straight to $80 without stopping.
CNBC is such great entertainment. Ha ha.
Unless you happen to be a former bouncer and right-wing supremacist nut from Russia. In that case, you get to emigrate to Isn'treal and be promoted to Secretary of State. Nice country.
Sales growth actually decreased from last year's Q2. This was their seasonally strongest quarter, and instead of making a big splash, their sales declined. The company had given guidance last October of 10-12% annual revenue growth. Now, the company is in danger of reporting negative revenue growth for FY 2014. What in the world is going on here? If I wasn't cut off by the moderator, I would have asked some hardball questions on the conference call. I didn't even get a chance to join the queue before the moderator ended the Q&A session. Oh well. Maybe next time. If there is a next time. I noticed no questions were asked about the reverse split. Maybe that's off the table. I don't know. But their authority to do reverse split expires in October. They had a long enough time to pump up the stock price to minimize the split ratio, but the stock has just floundered all year. Too bad. We'll see how the stock reacts to this awful earnings report. If it doesn't tank, I think the bottom is in. Could be no sellers left cause they all abanded ship already. We'll see.
Mini rally: just another way of saying dead cat bounce.
Lately, De Masi has been giving interviews to media outlets at a rate of one per day. It would be nice if he could find some real work to do that might actually help the operations of the business. If he keeps parading himself around like a peacock, nobody will take this company seriously anymore. This has to stop.
Blaming options expiration for a stocks underperformance is a common excuse of longs to explain market action. I notice almost always when the longs invoke this lame excuse , the stock tanks the following week. So that's my prediction. Next week this stock declines by 5-10%.