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Sarepta Therapeutics, Inc. Message Board

petercohen33 71 posts  |  Last Activity: May 29, 2015 1:04 PM Member since: Nov 23, 2010
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  • Reply to

    Next Tech Investments after PKT??

    by wedgecake May 28, 2015 3:32 PM
    petercohen33 petercohen33 May 29, 2015 1:04 PM Flag

    Acacia / ACTG is a name i have been familiar with for many years value prop has never been so compelling. I do believe company has been maligned with the "NPE = Non Performing Entity" thus creating a stunted EV. ACTG is the go to Company whenever a individual , company , institution or some other entity is in possession of a Patent / Intellectual Property and they feel someone is either using it w/o owner getting properly remunerated or party would like to explore avenues to monetize the patent / ip . Balance sheet has 150 -200 million in cash / no debt. Acacia is currently in possession of 12-15 marquee portfolio each one with potential of generating 100 million plus of licensing royalties ; they do anticipate owning closer to 17 by end of this calendar year. This franchise was validated as best of breed in space when 3 years ago FMR & Soros invested hundreds of millions of $'s at $38 per share. Soros has subsequently blown out , FMR has added becoming largest shareholder. Short Position is large 8-10 million on a 50 million shareholder base ; institutional interest has been close to 100% over last several quarters.

  • petercohen33 petercohen33 May 18, 2015 6:55 PM Flag

    Jason Nelson, Publisher of FierceWireless, FierceTelecom, and FierceCable, said, “As the Innovation Awards program grows each year so does the level of innovation we see from our entrants. To that end, we are thrilled to be able to offer applicants a unique channel to share their products and services with such an esteemed panel of judges from major global operators.”

    Winners were selected by an exclusive carrier-only panel of executives from AT&T, CableLabs, Cablevision System Corporation, Comcast, Cox Communications, Inc., Orange, Sprint, TeliaSonera International Carrier, and Verizon.

    RAN Perspectives is a low-profile subscriber experience solution that provides real-time location and radio access network (RAN) quality of experience (QoE) data that can be used to enhance the mobile broadband experience for consumers. The solution is an applet with a small memory and power-usage footprint that is loaded over-the-air on a device’s SIM card and combines traditional mobile radio metrics with data quality metrics to provide mobile operators with a more accurate measurement of the overall user experience. It enables unprecedented network test and management capabilities and a compelling mobile experience because it is independent of the network vendor, independent of the radio access technology and independent of the subscriber. Use cases can apply to the Engineering, Marketing, and Customer Care teams as the intelligence gathered is relevant across broadband operators’ entire organization in supporting the goal of delivering a higher QoE for subscribers.

    RAN Perspectives was announced in Q3 2014 and is expected to be generally available in Q1 2015.

  • Fremont, Calif., November 13, 2014 — Procera Networks, Inc. (NASDAQ: PKT), the global Subscriber Experience company, today announced its RAN Perspectives subscriber experience solution for mobile broadband operators has been named winner in both the “Network Test and Measurement” as well as the “Best In Show - Best Green Installation” categories of the 2014 Fierce Innovation Awards. Fierce Innovation Awards 2014 is an operator-reviewed awards program from the publishers of FierceWireless, FierceTelecom and FierceCable media outlets. Winners were judged by degree of technical innovation, financial impact, market validation, compatibility with existing network environments, end-user customer experience, and overall level of innovation.

    The “Best in Show – Best Green Installation” award recognizes cutting-edge technology vendors who have enabled an operator, service provider or content developer to reduce its energy consumption and make better use of the energy it does use.

    Procera’s RAN Perspectives eliminates the need to deploy physical network probes on mobile networks and because the solution leverages existing devices in the field to crowd source RAN signal data, operators are able to put an end to labor-intensive manual drive testing that accounts for a substantial amount of energy and capital consumption annually.

    “Winning the ‘Network Test and Measurement’ and ‘Best in Show’ categories reflect the groundbreaking nature of our RAN Perspectives solution,” said Henrik Dam, Director of Mobile Research at Procera. “With the mobile experience being more data-centric than ever and operators being more environmentally conscious, customers need a solution that provides visibility into the mobile user experience while simultaneously eliminating the cost and energy consumption of using vehicles to drive test mobile network performance.”

  • Reply to

    Large blocks trading this morning......

    by alohavacation May 15, 2015 12:06 PM
    petercohen33 petercohen33 May 15, 2015 1:45 PM Flag

    alohavacation i agree the large block trades are encouraging no longer believe Royce is the seller with 100% plus of float in institutional hands there are plenty of PM's out there we might not know them by name that are responsible for latest stone this much maligned currency is passing :(

  • Reply to

    Who Still Has Shares??

    by wedgecake May 9, 2015 11:49 AM
    petercohen33 petercohen33 May 11, 2015 11:25 AM Flag

    wedge i did not sell , in reading tender offer there is much flexibility to reclaim shares if higher bid is received from a third party or if acquiring party bumps to benefit from nominal incremental $. Stifel did a good job covering their tracks , " review Schedule 14D-9 " .

  • Reply to

    This Buyout is Egregious Sodomolia

    by wedgecake Apr 30, 2015 11:05 AM
    petercohen33 petercohen33 Apr 30, 2015 2:04 PM Flag

    The EV X ClickSoftware is getting taken out at is 2.80. Deal Price 438 Million cash on hand 45 Million Run Rate Current Year 140 Million. The growth in their Cloud Business is very impressive .

  • Reply to

    This Buyout is Egregious Sodomolia

    by wedgecake Apr 30, 2015 11:05 AM
    petercohen33 petercohen33 Apr 30, 2015 1:52 PM Flag

    bronk this is the economics of deal announced today, " On Feb 4th they came out with 2014 YE Results , " 33 million shares outstanding / 45 Million in $ " annual rev increased 22% YOY to 126.2 , Quarterly rev increased 12% YOY to a record 34.5 Million Quarterly Non-GAAP Net Income increased 59% YOY to $3.6 Million , 68% of Quarterly New Customers Purchased Cloud Solutions . Fourth Quarter 2014 Highlights

    Record revenues of $34.5 million, up 12% year-over-year;
    Strong win rate, added 22 new customers, of which 15 were cloud subscriptions;
    Cloud subscriptions revenues increased to $5.7 million compared to $0.5 million last year;
    Recurring revenues from cloud subscriptions and support reached 41% of total revenues;
    Non-GAAP net income of $3.6 million; Non-GAAP EPS of $0.11 per fully diluted share.
    Full Year 2014 Highlights

    Record revenues of $126.2 million, up 22% year-over-year;
    Annualized Recurring Revenues (ARR) from cloud subscriptions entering 2015 were $22.7 million;
    Non-GAAP net income of $1.4 million; Non-GAAP EPS of $0.04 per fully diluted share.
    2015 Annual Guidance

    Revenues of $140 million â#$%$" $145 million;
    Non-GAAP EPS of $0.09 â#$%$" $0.15 per fully diluted share.
    "I am pleased to report the tremendous progress in our efforts to grow the Company while we and the market transition to a cloud subscription model," said Dr. Moshe BenBassat, ClickSoftware's Founder and CEO. "It is a remarkable achievement to have recorded year-over-year revenue growth of 22% during such period of transition. Our existing user base in the cloud, combined with significant new cloud wins of large customers, prove that we have become the premier cloud vendor in the service sector in terms of user base and solution breadth for service companies of all sizes. Our leadership was also recognized in Gartner's Magic Quadrant for Field Service Management report, which selected ClickSoftware as leaders for the fourth consecutive year."

  • petercohen33 petercohen33 Apr 30, 2015 8:54 AM Flag

    In the earnings call, Mr. Vella reported:

    "...the Board is actively considering a buyback."

    Seems the transformation plan is no longer a plan. Acacia Research can be considered transformed. As Acacia Research takes its first breath through its fixed nose, the subsequent effect is that it actually helped shareholders breathe easier.

    Additional disclosure: I belong to an investment club that owns shares in ACTG.

  • petercohen33 petercohen33 Apr 30, 2015 8:52 AM Flag

    "strong revenue growth." It's also an appropriate time to recall Mr. Vella's response during the fourth quarter earnings call about the company's ability to return to 2012 levels. He was confident the company could not only get to that level but would also "go right by." The chart below helps depict this course: Though trial dates are not guaranteed and are shifted and delayed, it's pertinent to know that is not the single opportunity for decisions to occur. Trials for 2016 are already being scheduled. Yet 90 litigations are not yet scheduled.

    But, why believe the company is now poised to return to 2012 levels much less "go right by"? In the earnings call, Mr. Vella responded to a question about the destruction of shareholder value:

    "...most importantly, we've been on a journey in the last two years where we've told you what we are going to do and we are doing exactly what we said we are going to do."

    What have shareholders been told? On the 2013 second quarter earnings call just prior to Mr. Vella assuming the role of CEO, he stated:

    "My goal, as CEO, will be to continue to add, in fact accelerate the addition of, high quality, high revenue potential portfolios."

    "...if you compare the quality of the assets that we have now with where we were five to seven years ago, there is just absolutely no comparison and the pipeline similarly."

    By the end of 2014, management had projected an accumulation of 12 marquee portfolios. At the end of 2014, Acacia Research listed 12 marquee portfolios. In a 2013 earnings call, Acacia explained:

    "….historically there has been a very high correlation between our growth in new assets under management and our subsequent revenue growth with 12 to 18 months lag to begin generating revenues."

    Trials are scheduled for 2015 and 2016 for marquee portfolios. In January 2015, when the company held a conference call after a disappointing delay on a marquee portfolio, an analyst questioned whether Acacia's board could consider a buyback.

  • petercohen33 petercohen33 Apr 30, 2015 8:48 AM Flag

    The company expects to end 2015 with 15 to 17 marquee portfolios. Diversification across various industries is expected to help smooth the impact experienced in the past by setbacks or delays.

    So, while some may rightfully credit the licensing fees from VoiceAge for helping Acacia beat revenue estimates in the first quarter of 2015, the significant and encouraging news is that Acacia Research just drew its first breath through its "fixed" nose. At one point on April 24th, Acacia's stock price had gained almost 25%. It settled up 10.8%. Its "fixed" nose is already being well received.

    Management is confident in the remaining trial dates for 2015 and the company's ability to deliver revenue and earnings. It's simply impractical, however, for Acacia to speak about revenue projections because public information can be used against the company in future litigation. Therefore, shareholders are limited to a vague but promising outlook:

    "We remain confident in our strategy and operating focus and continue to expect revenue to ramp through 2015."

    "...the overall quality of our trial calendar and therefore our confidence in our company's future, including strong revenue growth in 2015 and beyond, has not fundamentally changed."

    "We think that SG&A costs are at a high-watermark at least in terms of how we configure. We think the litigation costs are at or near high watermark, but most importantly we think that with that exact cost structure, we can drive our revenues to much, much higher levels. And so we expect to be able to ramp up revenues and accordingly ramp up earnings in the coming quarters and we're excited about that."

    Therefore, it's safe to assume the run rate of $136.8 million established by first quarter revenue of $34.2 million is low because that would not be and operating focus and continue to expect revenue to ramp through 2015."

    "...the overall quality of our trial calendar and therefore our confidence in our company's future, including strong revenue

  • petercohen33 petercohen33 Apr 30, 2015 8:31 AM Flag

    So, while the typical headline will simply tout that Acacia Research beat analysts' expectations on EPS or posted an income loss, a better headline would read "Acacia Research Reveals Its New Nose."

    In the 2015 first quarter, trials related to the VoiceAge portfolio went in Acacia's favor. In the earnings call, Matthew Vella, Acacia's CEO stated:

    "Some of those agreements commended upfront license fees that accounted for much of the $34 million of revenues we recognized this quarter. Significantly, some of those agreements commended ongoing royalties which, though not significant contributors to our revenues or earnings this quarter, are expected to be significant contributors to our financial results for many quarters to come."

    There's a reason Mr. Vella used the word "significant" so many times - for Acacia and Acacia shareholders, this is significant news. Ongoing royalties equate to the new nose.

    Ongoing royalties offer recurring revenue for years ahead depending on the ife left in the portfolio's patents. The 225 patents in the VoiceAge portfolio apply to high definition voice. Acacia projects the unit count of phones utilizing these patents could grow from 120 million in 2015 to 700 million by 2019. The remaining life of the portfolio ranges from 4 to 7 years. Additionally, there are still cases pending related to the VoiceAge portfolio.

    Here's the power of Acacia being able to breathe through its new, "fixed" nose - VoiceAge is but one of its marquee portfolios. Eight of Acacia's marquee portfolios relate to various functions in smartphones. But, its inventory of marquee portfolios is diversified and covers the technology, automotive, and medical industries. Acacia management also specified that VoiceAge is a "middle of the road" portfolio. It has some that are less valuable, some that are more.

    Potential customers, patent-holders, are also turning to Acacia for assistance. Its pipeline is full of potential portfolios to add to its inventory.

  • Summary

    Acacia Research has been undergoing a transformation the past two years.
    Acacia reported 2015 first quarter results April 23rd. Revenue and non-GAAP EPS beat analysts' expectations. After a 2014 fourth quarter miss and a setback in January, this was a relief.
    But the significant results in the quarter were the ongoing royalties established with a marquee portfolio.
    Acacia Research (NASDAQ:ACTG) reported 2015 first quarter earnings on April 23rd. After an EPS miss in the 2014 fourth quarter and a disappointing announcement in January 2015 about a trial date delay, the revenue and EPS beat was pleasant - even a relief. When Acacia Research reported its third quarter earnings in October 2014, the share price rallied to a 52-week high in November just shy of $20. But, the subsequent events led to a 50+% slide in price. Even though the CEO has, for two years, consistently laid out what to expect during the transformation plan, long-term shareholders have had their patience tested relative to the stock price. Wall Street does not necessarily care if your plan is working while annual revenue falls from $250 million a year to just over half that mark. And Acacia's share price has reflected the lack of empathy. After all, even at $20, Acacia was still 57% off its 2011 high of $46.62.

    Acacia Research did not completely overhaul its business model. The business is basically the same. It is still a manager and protector of patents. Rather, Acacia's efforts were more akin to having a "nose job" - not the cosmetic kind but the kind that allows you to breathe through your nose. Acacia's revenue flow, before and during the transformation, has been, for the most part, reliant on litigation and trial dates which then resulted in settlement and licensing fees (revenue). Thus, modeling revenue is next to impossible and unpredictable.

  • Reply to

    Acacia Research Corp.: Q1 2015 Breakdown

    by petercohen33 Apr 28, 2015 7:17 AM
    petercohen33 petercohen33 Apr 29, 2015 12:18 PM Flag

    nick my intention was never to usurp IP Hawk and take credit for seeking alpha article my intention was to seek credible insight for this message board and their participants. I apologize to U / IP Hawk and anyone else that felt as thou i had a personal agenda !

  • Reply to

    Acacia Research Corp.: Q1 2015 Breakdown

    by petercohen33 Apr 28, 2015 7:17 AM
    petercohen33 petercohen33 Apr 28, 2015 3:34 PM Flag

    nick why step right in the middle of this thread to ask that question. Please out of consideration to other have a little message board respect. What i posted came from a Seeking Alpha Article Author is IP Hawk

  • Reply to

    Acacia Research Corp.: Q1 2015 Breakdown

    by petercohen33 Apr 28, 2015 7:17 AM
    petercohen33 petercohen33 Apr 28, 2015 7:35 AM Flag

    Conclusion

    Acacia spent the last 18 months acquiring and starting the litigation process for their marquee portfolios. The litigation has now matured with a deep calendar of litigation dates, which the company is using as a catalyst to negotiate settlement agreements. It is very important for Acacia to win these litigation events as the legal results have direct correlation to the financial results. I expect FY 2015 results to improve significantly over the prior two years if Acacia can win these important legal events.

  • Reply to

    Acacia Research Corp.: Q1 2015 Breakdown

    by petercohen33 Apr 28, 2015 7:17 AM
    petercohen33 petercohen33 Apr 28, 2015 7:32 AM Flag

    What I am watching for in Q2 2015

    Continued execution in the VoiceAge portfolio leading to a number of high value settlements.

    Markman Hearings in the following portfolios:

    Adaptix
    Boston Scientific
    Nexus Display
    Rambus
    ST Micro
    Memory Medical trial versus:

    Rex Medical
    Argon Medical

    Adaptix Summary Judgment and Pre-trial conferences with:

    LG
    Pantech
    AT&T
    Verizon
    Historically ACTG has been able to negotiate settlement agreements in conjunction with Markman Hearings/Opinions and trial dates serving as a catalyst. The Q2 2015 calendar is full of important events, which will be used to negotiate agreements. It is very important for ACTG to continue to win significant legal decisions in order to maintain a strong negotiating position. I expect a handful of agreements to be negotiated before the catalyst events and extending into Q3/Q4 2015. Two agreements have already been disclosed, Nexus Display vs. NEC back on April 9, 2015, and VoiceAge vs. Amazon on April 23, 2015. One agreement Rambus vs. Volkswagen should be finalized within the next 30 days per the filing.

  • Reply to

    Acacia Research Corp.: Q1 2015 Breakdown

    by petercohen33 Apr 28, 2015 7:17 AM
    petercohen33 petercohen33 Apr 28, 2015 7:28 AM Flag

    itigation/licensing over $500,000. Due to the size of the defendants, IPR status, and litigation status I believe the estimates to be fair.

    VoiceAge (St. Lawrence) - Announced licenses with Aradyan, Doro, Huawei, and Sony during Q1. The licenses should have been in conjunction with the German ruling and subsequent injunction issued during the quarter. Huawei was a royalty bearing agreement meaning they will pay an ongoing royalty based on units shipped over the course of the confidential agreement. I expect a $3mm payment for prior infringement to be a reasonable expectation. The Sony license is a lump sum agreement, which should cover roughly 60mm terminals over a five or six-year period at a $0.25-$0.40 royalty rate.

    Note: All legal and IPR information was sourced from public databases. All estimate amounts are my own and based on educated personal opinions. Actual results could be materially higher or lower. To estimate perfect results would require being exposed to confidential information, which I do not have.

    Significant Events in Q1 2015

    Q1 2015 was a mixed bag of legal developments for ACTG. ACTG saw the lows with defendants Summary Judgment on direct infringement being granted in late January 2015, which moved shares to a 52-week low in the subsequent weeks. ACTG also saw highs with an injunction in Germany granted, which helped leverage settlement agreements in their VoiceAge portfolio with Sony ($19mm) and Huawei.

    Adverse Adaptix Summary Judgment vs. Apple/HTC

    VoiceAge German Injunction vs. Huawei (settled), Sony (settled), HTC, and Deutsche Telekom

    VoiceAge US litigation filed vs. HTC, LG, Motorola, ZTE

    Adverse Endotach Summary Judgment vs. Cook

    Favorable Claim Construction Opinions in:

    Cellular Communications Equipment (Nokia Siemens)
    O.S Security

    Promethean Insulation

  • Reply to

    Acacia Research Corp.: Q1 2015 Breakdown

    by petercohen33 Apr 28, 2015 7:17 AM
    petercohen33 petercohen33 Apr 28, 2015 7:22 AM Flag

    In-Depth Test - Agreement signed with Intersil at the end of the quarter with litigation only in the initial pleadings phase. This portfolio is also non-marquee.

    Intercarrier Communications - Signed an agreement with Whatsapp. A Markman opinion was issued with most terms siding with Whatsapp. This deal will be small if there was any revenue attached as Intercarrier's position was not strong.

    Location Based Services - Signed agreements with Sprint and Virgin Mobile after the Markman hearing and before the opinion was issued. This portfolio is not considered marquee.

    Online News Link - Agreement with Acxiom during Q1 after the Markman hearing and before an opinion was issued. I estimate the deal to be small and is likely cleanup of the non-marquee legacy portfolios.

    Parallel Separation - Agreement with Schlumberger was before the Markman hearing and an IPR was not filed. I had a difficult time estimating this deal and I have very little confidence in my number. The general trend in the patent space is for an IPR to be filed for any litigation/licensing over $500,000. There could be additional upside to these deals due to Acacia having a premier licensing team, which could extend the $500,000 IPR trend higher.

    Rambus - Announced licenses with Dell and HP one month before their scheduled jury trial. I estimate the two deals total to around $3mm. I believe the two defendants were on the lower end of this portfolio target and the infringement was related to notebook LCD displays and monitors.

    Silicon Image #1 (Super Resolution) - Announced a deal with Leica Microsystems before a Markman hearing and before an IPR was filed. Based on the size of the defendant and the portfolio being marquee, I believe my estimate should be close.

    Silicon Image #2 (Nexus Display) - Announced licenses with Panasonic and Eizo before the June 22, 2015, Markman hearing and without IPRs being filed. The general trend in the patent space is for an IPR to be filed for any litigation/licensi

  • Summary

    Q1 2015 revenue estimates broken down by announced deals during the quarter.
    Significant events in Q1 2015.
    What I am watching for in Q2 2015.
    Acacia R(NASDAQ:ACTG) reported Q1 2015 earnings on April 23, 2015, after the close.

    ACTG does put out a press release or files an 8-K with every revenue generating agreement during the quarter, where most patent-related investments do not. I believe, using historical data and tracking the litigation cycle, investors can estimate every deal signed during the quarter. With the company's focus shifting to their marquee portfolios it is important to track prior agreements in order to estimate/model the remaining portion of the portfolios.

    Q1 estimates for each announced license:

    Breed (AVS) - Announced licenses with Garmin and TomTom. The litigation was in the pre-Markman hearing stage and there was an IPR filed by TomTom on the patent asserted. I do not expect a major contribution from these two settlements, and my estimates are likely on the high side.

    Bonutti - Announced a license with DePuy subsidiaries on March 31, 2015. A favorable Markman opinion was issued back in June 2014. The settlement was during discovery. There was a second case filed asserting new patents on December 19, 2014, which was in the initial pleadings stage.

    SK Telecom (Cell and Network Selection) - Announced the settlement with Sprint after the Markman hearing and before the Markman opinion. I estimate the settlement will be higher than prior agreements in this portfolio as those agreements were in an earlier stage of litigation.

    Credit Card Fraud Control - The agreement with Elavon was during the scheduling phase of litigation and a covered business was recently filed waiting for an institution decision. This portfolio is non-marquee and should not command premium rates.

  • petercohen33 petercohen33 Apr 27, 2015 6:37 AM Flag

    blue i have owned a small position in GIMO for many months , long before your paw print every showed up on this board. Lets be perfectly clear & honest with each other so there is no misunderstanding and you could stop giving yourself credit for a call you never made. Your suggestion on this board , " Pre LBO Announcement " was GIMO should buy Procera . I shinned a light on that Post for one reason what a difference 6 months could make. In October 2014 GIMO traded at half the price / market cap it did when you posted on this board , " $12 per share at that time back in Oct/2014 " you thought it path of least resistance was lower you thought GIMO was heading to $7/8 per share , wrong it put in it low and subsequently doubled in price w/in 6 months. What a difference 6 months can make GIMO went from a currency you thought had no bottom to a best of breed currency you thought should acquire Procera ! PS blue understand you have little history and no credibility on this board go flap your gums somewhere else we are all in mourning be respectful you fool !

SRPT
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