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Sarepta Therapeutics, Inc. Message Board

petercohen33 22 posts  |  Last Activity: Jul 28, 2015 3:49 PM Member since: Nov 23, 2010
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  • petercohen33 petercohen33 Jul 28, 2015 3:49 PM Flag

    nettie_rice my initial reaction towards your Post was disgust i thought you were rude putting your paw print right in the middle of this article instead of at the end . My disgust turned quickly to shame was not aware that my actions compromised Rochelle Jenks ability to generate income from this initiative i apologize for that. I am appreciative for the time and interest RJ has taken to acquaint herself with this unloved and under followed Company. If i had any success in the past posting a link i would have unfortunately whenever i have attempted to post a link it never was able to be posted. Please try and post a link and see if you have any success. Moving forward i will attempt to post a link if i have success great ! PS Rochelle Jenks your time effort and intellectual acumen is very much respected and appreciated , thank you .

  • petercohen33 petercohen33 Jul 28, 2015 1:28 PM Flag

    further out in the calendar and some favorable rulings out of Europe and some recent market opinions make it sound like to lend credence to your optimism?"

    A: "The short answer is yes."

    Specifically, the company has trials on a marquee portfolio that were originally scheduled in June now scheduled for August and November. Final judgments on cases where it has already been found that patents are infringed are expected in August, September and January, 2016. Cases that were ready to move into a "remedy phase" had been put on hold pending resolution from the European Court of Decision and that resolution was issued July 16th, 2015. The trial calendar for the back half of 2015 is full. As articulated by the analyst on the call, it certainly does look like an inflection point.

    With a potential deluge of cash headed into the Acacia coffers, is it time for shareholders to update their investment plan for Acacia? Another analyst asked:

    "So, if dividend is the preferred method of return, does that mean we could see special dividends, one-time dividends if you get some home runs and grand slams on some of these trials that are upcoming?"

    Acacia's EVP of Strategic Licensing, David Rosmann replied without fanfare:

    "Yes."

    Remembering that Acacia's CEO expects the company to "go right by" 2012 performance levels on the foundation of the marquee portfolios, shareholders may well be presented with perplexing options. After all, Acacia shareholders are always saddled with a layer of opacity because the company cannot fully share financial details about the specific judgments and settlements. Obviously, every shareholder's investment strategy will be unique to himself. For those sitting on a paper loss, would one-time or special dividends prompt an exit strategy, reinvesting, saving the cash or divesting elsewhere? There is no one "right" answer. But, there is an inflection point looming.

    Additional disclosure: I belong to an investment club that owns shares in ACTG.

  • petercohen33 petercohen33 Jul 28, 2015 1:24 PM Flag

    But, it's still sobering to look back at 2012 where annual revenue topped $250 million and at 2011 where the share price broke $46. From the 2015 first quarter reporting on April 23rd to market close on July 23rd, the share price managed, yet again, to topple, at its most, by another 29% to as low as $7.88. For shareholders at $46, that's an 80%-plus slice. To be fair, the company began paying a $0.50 annual dividend in 2013. But, even those add up to just over $1.00 and have done little to soften such a fall.

    In recent earnings calls, Acacia management has been queried about the company's intentions regarding shareholder return. Repeatedly, the company has been asked to consider buying back shares relative to its share price being under-valued. In hindsight, perhaps a little smoke was blown regarding how seriously that option was considered. In the 2015 second quarter call, there was some clarity:

    "Having said that the dividend is the preferred capital of return mechanism, we thought it would be imprudent to layer a buyback on top dividend at this time. But, since a lot is going on with the company in terms of prospectively good revenue opportunities and a lot of very high-profile trials coming up in just the next two months, you can rest assured that we will continuously monitor the situation and then continuously consider whether or not we should be reinitiating a buyback authorization."

    To be fair, Acacia does have to be thoughtful about allocating its capital. Driving these "marquee" portfolios toward profitability has increased its legal and litigation costs. It would be foolish to fall short just before the finish line...especially when the finish line keeps inching further away. From the earnings call:

    Q: "Is this REALLY (emphasis added) the inflection point where all of the business model changes put together over the last 18 to 24 months are finally starting to come together and trial delays have reached the point where they could no longer be pushed

  • petercohen33 petercohen33 Jul 28, 2015 11:10 AM Flag

    it changes forever the company's monetization process as revenue then flows from licensing and royalties.

    The company reported 2015 second quarter earnings on July 23rd after the market closed. Year-over-year, revenue was down from $50 million to $40 million. Compared to the $29 million average of analysts' estimates, though, the revenue total was an impressive beat. Likewise, non-GAAP earnings per share tallied $0.25 - eight times the average estimate of $0.03.

    And, there were other highlights. For the first six months, year-over-year, revenue totaled 19% higher. Second quarter revenue was generated from 18 licensing and enforcement programs as compared to 16 in the prior year quarter. The company signed 20 new license agreements in the quarter. It partnered with two high-value portfolio owners, one of which is Acacia's first marquee portfolio in the energy space. Restructuring the workforce resulted in a 23% cut in marketing, general and administrative expenses in the quarter. At the forecasted midpoint, the full-year impact will be a 20% decrease compared to 2014. For 2016, an incremental 8% will be saved.

    Yes, it is progress and will, most likely, prove itself as the right direction.

  • petercohen33 petercohen33 Jul 28, 2015 10:34 AM Flag

    With a potential deluge of cash headed into the Acacia coffers, is it time for shareholders to update their investment plan for Acacia? Another analyst asked:

    "So, if dividend is the preferred method of return, does that mean we could see special dividends, one-time dividends if you get some home runs and grand slams on some of these trials that are upcoming?"

    Acacia's EVP of Strategic Licensing, David Rosmann replied without fanfare:

    "Yes."

    Remembering that Acacia's CEO expects the company to "go right by" 2012 performance levels on the foundation of the marquee portfolios, shareholders may well be presented with perplexing options. After all, Acacia shareholders are always saddled with a layer of opacity because the company cannot fully share financial details about the specific judgments and settlements. Obviously, every shareholder's investment strategy will be unique to himself. For those sitting on a paper loss, would one-time or special dividends prompt an exit strategy, reinvesting, saving the cash or divesting elsewhere? There is no one "right" answer. But, there is an inflection point looming.

    Additional disclosure: I belong to an investment club that owns shares in ACTG.

  • petercohen33 petercohen33 Jul 28, 2015 10:30 AM Flag

    smoke was blown regarding how seriously that option was considered. In the 2015 second quarter call, there was some clarity:

    "Having said that the dividend is the preferred capital of return mechanism, we thought it would be imprudent to layer a buyback on top of the dividend at this time. But, since a lot is going on with the company in terms of prospectively good revenue opportunities and a lot of very high-profile trials coming up in just the next two months, you can rest assured that we will continuously monitor the situation and then continuously consider whether or not we should be reinitiating a buyback authorization."

    To be fair, Acacia does have to be thoughtful about allocating its capital. Driving these "marquee" portfolios toward profitability has increased its legal and litigation costs. It would be foolish to fall short just before the finish line...especially when the finish line keeps inching further away. From the earnings call:

    Q: "Is this REALLY (emphasis added) the inflection point where all of the business model changes put together over the last 18 to 24 months are finally starting to come together and trial delays have reached the point where they can no longer be pushed further out in the calendar and some favorable rulings out of Europe and some recent market opinions make it sound like to lend credence to your optimism?"

    A: "The short answer is yes."

    Specifically, the company has trials on a marquee portfolio that were originally scheduled in June now scheduled for August and November. Final judgments on cases where it has already been found that patents are infringed are expected in August, September and January, 2016. Cases that were ready to move into a "remedy phase" had been put on hold pending resolution from the European Court of Decision and that resolution was issued July 16th, 2015. The trial calendar for the back half of 2015 is full. As articulated by the analyst on the call, it certainly does look like an inflection point.

  • Rochelle Jenks
    Growth at reasonable price, long-term horizon, value
    Profile| Send Message| Follow (574 followers) Performance
    Acacia Research: Inflection Points For The Company And For Shareholders?
    Jul. 27, 2015 9:36 AM ET | About: Acacia Research Corporation (ACTG)
    Disclosure: I am/we are long ACTG. (More...)
    Summary

    Acacia Research reported second quarter results on July 23rd. Even though most numbers were positive, the word "delay" again littered the conversation.
    The back half of 2015 looks more like an inflection point for proving the company's marquee strategy than ever before in its two-year quest.
    The company's stock price has fallen off 2011 highs by as much as 80%. As the company faces its inflection point, will long-time shareholders face inflection points of their own?
    "Next quarter."

    "Next six months."

    "Next year."

    In some cases, these may be the most tiresome words for a wearied shareholder to tolerate. Just ask a multi-year shareholder of Acacia Research (NASDAQ:ACTG). In the shortest of versions, approximately 2 years ago, Acacia Research, an NPE (non-practicing entity) - a bridge between patent holders and corporate businesses, began refocusing its energies on "marquee" or high-quality, high-revenue-potential portfolios of patents and IP.

    It wouldn't actually be fair to say Acacia Research has not accumulated a stable of marquee portfolios. By the company's count, it has 13 on hand with plans to end the year with 15 to 17. But, it is fair to say the paydays on the marquee portfolios have not yet fully arrived. So, actually knowing whether the portfolios qualify as marquee still has yet to occur. Simply, Acacia's "paydays" occur relative to court dates - through judgments and out-of-court settlements. So, when a court date is delayed, postponed, pushed out, the company's payday follows. It happened in January 2015 impacting the first quarter. It happened in the second quarter. It could happen again. Ideally, though, once the paydays occur,

  • Acacia Research (NASDAQ:ACTG): Q2 EPS of $0.25 beats by $0.22.Revenue of $40.34M (-19.4% Y/Y) beats by $11.2M.

  • Combination of Seller Exhaustion , Index Rebalancing Behind Us , Short Covering & Company Probably Buying Back Shares Aggressively has contributed to 7 trading days in a row of higher closes than prior day. Increase in volume in last 60-90 minutes of trading during above mentioned time frame is very indicative & telling about Company buying back shares with 150-175 million of $ on balance sheet earning zero while they pay a 5-6% stock div along with accretive impact on bottom line EPS makes buying back stock a no brainer .

  • petercohen33 petercohen33 Jul 8, 2015 12:36 PM Flag

    Gentleman i believe the lows Procera put in based on valuation after Q314 Earning Pre-Release was exacerbated by Largest Institutional Owner Archon liquidating a 2 Million share position representing 10% of PKT's outstanding shares . It was a angry sell that temporarily imploded PKT's EV Metrics . If that 800lb gorilla did not puke no way would Procera of traded down to that anemic valuation. I do not believe Allot's shareholder base will be sellers at that ridiculously low valuation. Time shall tell not very familiar with their business always felt Procera would eat their lunch. Stock should not trade under a .5X of EV do not c it overshooting like PKT.

  • Reply to

    Next Tech Investments after PKT??

    by wedgecake May 28, 2015 3:32 PM
    petercohen33 petercohen33 May 29, 2015 1:04 PM Flag

    Acacia / ACTG is a name i have been familiar with for many years value prop has never been so compelling. I do believe company has been maligned with the "NPE = Non Performing Entity" thus creating a stunted EV. ACTG is the go to Company whenever a individual , company , institution or some other entity is in possession of a Patent / Intellectual Property and they feel someone is either using it w/o owner getting properly remunerated or party would like to explore avenues to monetize the patent / ip . Balance sheet has 150 -200 million in cash / no debt. Acacia is currently in possession of 12-15 marquee portfolio each one with potential of generating 100 million plus of licensing royalties ; they do anticipate owning closer to 17 by end of this calendar year. This franchise was validated as best of breed in space when 3 years ago FMR & Soros invested hundreds of millions of $'s at $38 per share. Soros has subsequently blown out , FMR has added becoming largest shareholder. Short Position is large 8-10 million on a 50 million shareholder base ; institutional interest has been close to 100% over last several quarters.

  • petercohen33 petercohen33 May 18, 2015 6:55 PM Flag

    Jason Nelson, Publisher of FierceWireless, FierceTelecom, and FierceCable, said, “As the Innovation Awards program grows each year so does the level of innovation we see from our entrants. To that end, we are thrilled to be able to offer applicants a unique channel to share their products and services with such an esteemed panel of judges from major global operators.”

    Winners were selected by an exclusive carrier-only panel of executives from AT&T, CableLabs, Cablevision System Corporation, Comcast, Cox Communications, Inc., Orange, Sprint, TeliaSonera International Carrier, and Verizon.

    RAN Perspectives is a low-profile subscriber experience solution that provides real-time location and radio access network (RAN) quality of experience (QoE) data that can be used to enhance the mobile broadband experience for consumers. The solution is an applet with a small memory and power-usage footprint that is loaded over-the-air on a device’s SIM card and combines traditional mobile radio metrics with data quality metrics to provide mobile operators with a more accurate measurement of the overall user experience. It enables unprecedented network test and management capabilities and a compelling mobile experience because it is independent of the network vendor, independent of the radio access technology and independent of the subscriber. Use cases can apply to the Engineering, Marketing, and Customer Care teams as the intelligence gathered is relevant across broadband operators’ entire organization in supporting the goal of delivering a higher QoE for subscribers.

    RAN Perspectives was announced in Q3 2014 and is expected to be generally available in Q1 2015.

  • Fremont, Calif., November 13, 2014 — Procera Networks, Inc. (NASDAQ: PKT), the global Subscriber Experience company, today announced its RAN Perspectives subscriber experience solution for mobile broadband operators has been named winner in both the “Network Test and Measurement” as well as the “Best In Show - Best Green Installation” categories of the 2014 Fierce Innovation Awards. Fierce Innovation Awards 2014 is an operator-reviewed awards program from the publishers of FierceWireless, FierceTelecom and FierceCable media outlets. Winners were judged by degree of technical innovation, financial impact, market validation, compatibility with existing network environments, end-user customer experience, and overall level of innovation.

    The “Best in Show – Best Green Installation” award recognizes cutting-edge technology vendors who have enabled an operator, service provider or content developer to reduce its energy consumption and make better use of the energy it does use.

    Procera’s RAN Perspectives eliminates the need to deploy physical network probes on mobile networks and because the solution leverages existing devices in the field to crowd source RAN signal data, operators are able to put an end to labor-intensive manual drive testing that accounts for a substantial amount of energy and capital consumption annually.

    “Winning the ‘Network Test and Measurement’ and ‘Best in Show’ categories reflect the groundbreaking nature of our RAN Perspectives solution,” said Henrik Dam, Director of Mobile Research at Procera. “With the mobile experience being more data-centric than ever and operators being more environmentally conscious, customers need a solution that provides visibility into the mobile user experience while simultaneously eliminating the cost and energy consumption of using vehicles to drive test mobile network performance.”

  • Reply to

    Large blocks trading this morning......

    by alohavacation May 15, 2015 12:06 PM
    petercohen33 petercohen33 May 15, 2015 1:45 PM Flag

    alohavacation i agree the large block trades are encouraging no longer believe Royce is the seller with 100% plus of float in institutional hands there are plenty of PM's out there we might not know them by name that are responsible for latest stone this much maligned currency is passing :(

  • Reply to

    Who Still Has Shares??

    by wedgecake May 9, 2015 11:49 AM
    petercohen33 petercohen33 May 11, 2015 11:25 AM Flag

    wedge i did not sell , in reading tender offer there is much flexibility to reclaim shares if higher bid is received from a third party or if acquiring party bumps to benefit from nominal incremental $. Stifel did a good job covering their tracks , " review Schedule 14D-9 " .

  • Reply to

    This Buyout is Egregious Sodomolia

    by wedgecake Apr 30, 2015 11:05 AM
    petercohen33 petercohen33 Apr 30, 2015 2:04 PM Flag

    The EV X ClickSoftware is getting taken out at is 2.80. Deal Price 438 Million cash on hand 45 Million Run Rate Current Year 140 Million. The growth in their Cloud Business is very impressive .

  • Reply to

    This Buyout is Egregious Sodomolia

    by wedgecake Apr 30, 2015 11:05 AM
    petercohen33 petercohen33 Apr 30, 2015 1:52 PM Flag

    bronk this is the economics of deal announced today, " On Feb 4th they came out with 2014 YE Results , " 33 million shares outstanding / 45 Million in $ " annual rev increased 22% YOY to 126.2 , Quarterly rev increased 12% YOY to a record 34.5 Million Quarterly Non-GAAP Net Income increased 59% YOY to $3.6 Million , 68% of Quarterly New Customers Purchased Cloud Solutions . Fourth Quarter 2014 Highlights

    Record revenues of $34.5 million, up 12% year-over-year;
    Strong win rate, added 22 new customers, of which 15 were cloud subscriptions;
    Cloud subscriptions revenues increased to $5.7 million compared to $0.5 million last year;
    Recurring revenues from cloud subscriptions and support reached 41% of total revenues;
    Non-GAAP net income of $3.6 million; Non-GAAP EPS of $0.11 per fully diluted share.
    Full Year 2014 Highlights

    Record revenues of $126.2 million, up 22% year-over-year;
    Annualized Recurring Revenues (ARR) from cloud subscriptions entering 2015 were $22.7 million;
    Non-GAAP net income of $1.4 million; Non-GAAP EPS of $0.04 per fully diluted share.
    2015 Annual Guidance

    Revenues of $140 million â#$%$" $145 million;
    Non-GAAP EPS of $0.09 â#$%$" $0.15 per fully diluted share.
    "I am pleased to report the tremendous progress in our efforts to grow the Company while we and the market transition to a cloud subscription model," said Dr. Moshe BenBassat, ClickSoftware's Founder and CEO. "It is a remarkable achievement to have recorded year-over-year revenue growth of 22% during such period of transition. Our existing user base in the cloud, combined with significant new cloud wins of large customers, prove that we have become the premier cloud vendor in the service sector in terms of user base and solution breadth for service companies of all sizes. Our leadership was also recognized in Gartner's Magic Quadrant for Field Service Management report, which selected ClickSoftware as leaders for the fourth consecutive year."

  • petercohen33 petercohen33 Apr 30, 2015 8:54 AM Flag

    In the earnings call, Mr. Vella reported:

    "...the Board is actively considering a buyback."

    Seems the transformation plan is no longer a plan. Acacia Research can be considered transformed. As Acacia Research takes its first breath through its fixed nose, the subsequent effect is that it actually helped shareholders breathe easier.

    Additional disclosure: I belong to an investment club that owns shares in ACTG.

  • petercohen33 petercohen33 Apr 30, 2015 8:52 AM Flag

    "strong revenue growth." It's also an appropriate time to recall Mr. Vella's response during the fourth quarter earnings call about the company's ability to return to 2012 levels. He was confident the company could not only get to that level but would also "go right by." The chart below helps depict this course: Though trial dates are not guaranteed and are shifted and delayed, it's pertinent to know that is not the single opportunity for decisions to occur. Trials for 2016 are already being scheduled. Yet 90 litigations are not yet scheduled.

    But, why believe the company is now poised to return to 2012 levels much less "go right by"? In the earnings call, Mr. Vella responded to a question about the destruction of shareholder value:

    "...most importantly, we've been on a journey in the last two years where we've told you what we are going to do and we are doing exactly what we said we are going to do."

    What have shareholders been told? On the 2013 second quarter earnings call just prior to Mr. Vella assuming the role of CEO, he stated:

    "My goal, as CEO, will be to continue to add, in fact accelerate the addition of, high quality, high revenue potential portfolios."

    "...if you compare the quality of the assets that we have now with where we were five to seven years ago, there is just absolutely no comparison and the pipeline similarly."

    By the end of 2014, management had projected an accumulation of 12 marquee portfolios. At the end of 2014, Acacia Research listed 12 marquee portfolios. In a 2013 earnings call, Acacia explained:

    "….historically there has been a very high correlation between our growth in new assets under management and our subsequent revenue growth with 12 to 18 months lag to begin generating revenues."

    Trials are scheduled for 2015 and 2016 for marquee portfolios. In January 2015, when the company held a conference call after a disappointing delay on a marquee portfolio, an analyst questioned whether Acacia's board could consider a buyback.

  • petercohen33 petercohen33 Apr 30, 2015 8:48 AM Flag

    The company expects to end 2015 with 15 to 17 marquee portfolios. Diversification across various industries is expected to help smooth the impact experienced in the past by setbacks or delays.

    So, while some may rightfully credit the licensing fees from VoiceAge for helping Acacia beat revenue estimates in the first quarter of 2015, the significant and encouraging news is that Acacia Research just drew its first breath through its "fixed" nose. At one point on April 24th, Acacia's stock price had gained almost 25%. It settled up 10.8%. Its "fixed" nose is already being well received.

    Management is confident in the remaining trial dates for 2015 and the company's ability to deliver revenue and earnings. It's simply impractical, however, for Acacia to speak about revenue projections because public information can be used against the company in future litigation. Therefore, shareholders are limited to a vague but promising outlook:

    "We remain confident in our strategy and operating focus and continue to expect revenue to ramp through 2015."

    "...the overall quality of our trial calendar and therefore our confidence in our company's future, including strong revenue growth in 2015 and beyond, has not fundamentally changed."

    "We think that SG&A costs are at a high-watermark at least in terms of how we configure. We think the litigation costs are at or near high watermark, but most importantly we think that with that exact cost structure, we can drive our revenues to much, much higher levels. And so we expect to be able to ramp up revenues and accordingly ramp up earnings in the coming quarters and we're excited about that."

    Therefore, it's safe to assume the run rate of $136.8 million established by first quarter revenue of $34.2 million is low because that would not be and operating focus and continue to expect revenue to ramp through 2015."

    "...the overall quality of our trial calendar and therefore our confidence in our company's future, including strong revenue

SRPT
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