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Procera Networks, Inc. Message Board

petercohen33 129 posts  |  Last Activity: 3 hours ago Member since: Nov 23, 2010
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  • petercohen33 petercohen33 3 hours ago Flag

    The two Tier-1 mobile orders are in addition to a $15 million expansion order by another customer in September. The company's strong booking activity combine with an undervalued stock presents a great opportunity for investors.Data: Reuters- Allot Financial

    Allot's stock has declined 30.0% year to date. The decline has occurred despite a strong financial performance in the first half of 2014. Fortunately, the stock decline presents an interesting opportunity for investors. Allot's stock is trading at a significant discount based on P/B compared to both the industry and sector. Additionally, Allot is trading at a similar valuation to the industry which has grown much slower. As revenue continues to grow double digits, investors should be more willing to pay a higher premium for the stock. Even if Allot's growth rate remains flat, investors should be willing to pay closer to 4 times sales. Yet, Allot should be able to grow faster than its trailing twelve month average. Allot investors should benefit from a significant amount of multiple expansion. The recent 30.0% decline has resulted in the company's stock becoming undervalued compared to the industry and sector. Especially since, management has fixed the company's booking issues and is focusing more on the mobile market. The increased focus on the mobile market is very important to the company's U.S. expansion efforts.

    The U.S. Mobile Market And Struggling Competitors

    Allot is an Israel company with a significant presents in the EMEA region. The EMEA region accounted for 52.9% (2011), 47.9% (2012), and 41.4% (2013) of total revenue. In Q2, Allot generated 62% of revenue from the EMEA region. Additionally in Q2, they generated 19% from both Asia and the Americas. As shown above, Allot's revenue has become more geographically diverse over the last several years. The company's more diverse revenue generation is the result of rapid growth in the Americas region since 2011.

  • petercohen33 petercohen33 3 hours ago Flag

    In the first half of 2014, operating and net profit margins increased by 11.2 and 10.8 percentage points, respectively Despite a strong rebound from 2013, Allot's stock has struggled in 2014. The stock has declined 30.0% year to date. The recent stock decline presents an interesting opportunity for investors. The decline has driven the stock into undervalued territory compared to the industry and sector. This combined with strong future revenue growth should result in the stock outperforming. Although Allot had a subpar 2013, the company has had a strong start to 2014 and is well positioned to continue its strong performance over the next several years. The DPI market is expected to increase substantially over the next few years. Infonetics Research estimates operators spent $728 million on DPI solutions in 2013 and will spend $2 billion annually by 2018. Additionally, Market Research Media estimates the U.S. government will spend $1.8 billion on DPI solutions annually by 2018. Despite risk from net neutrality laws, the DPI market should continue to grow. Current proposals won't significantly limit service providers ability to discriminate and control their networks, according to Engadget. As a result, service providers will still find value in DPI solutions. Despite losing their market share lead, Allot is still the second largest DPI company and they are well positioned to take advantage of the market's growth. Management has fixed the company's booking issue from 2012. The company continues to acquire large customers and is experiencing strong demand from the customer base. Management's focus on the mobile market will help the company's expansion efforts especially in the United States. Additionally, Procera Networks, Inc. (PKT) has suffered greatly from sales execution issues in 2014. Procera was the 4th largest DPI vendor in 2013, according to Infonetics Research.

  • petercohen33 petercohen33 7 hours ago Flag

    I agree bronk , Procera has proven they have unique / valuable skills they have also proven to be a very dysfunctional underappreciated public company. Archon has a concentrated portfolio , PKT represents a meaningful investment ; Dino the PM would rather have root canal in a front tooth than wait for this green banana to get ripe & be appreciated as a public company. PS chances are Ronald Chez has already spoken to Archon , I would be shocked if he did not !

  • petercohen33 petercohen33 7 hours ago Flag

    $15 represent a 2.5-3X of current run rate. It does not take into consideration several initiatives I have mentioned in the pass that have generated zero rev. SDN / NFV , Ran Perspectives ect. I am confident there is a healthy list of very solid companies that would very much like to tuck in this unloved / underappreciated puppy under their roof. Data & Mobile are very attractive growth spaces Procera has developed a strong core competency in these much sort after industries.

  • petercohen33 petercohen33 9 hours ago Flag

    Dito derby , just pathetic

  • petercohen33 petercohen33 11 hours ago Flag

    These larger networks will require significantly more labor to manage them. The current network model can't efficiently handle the increasing size of data centers and networks. As a result, several companies have create software defined networking or SDN. SDN allows components to be configured and managed from a separate central point. In a SDN environment, administrators can quickly install new hardware and integrate it at a centralized location. This process greatly reduces the labor needed for network administration. SDN is the future of networking. As a result, management has been developing a solution which can run in a SDN environment. According to MRV Communications, Inc. (MRVC), Jay Klein Allot's CTO stated "Allot is the first to introduce a virtual TDF, enabling application aware SLA management at the customer premises and network edges via SDN..." Allot has lost its market lead but is aggressively pushing to regain it. Revenue generation from the SDN market won't be meaningful for a few years. Yet, the company's virtual solution will help it take advantage of the transition to SDN. Additionally, management is gaining significant experienced which should help the company stay ahead of the competition in the virtualized market. Future networks will be software based. With their virtualized DPI solution, management is positioning the company for long-term growth.

    Booking Activity Greatly Improved

    Management has been able to take advantage of the DPI market's growth. Revenue has grown a total of 131.2% from 2009-2013. Yet in 2013, revenue declined due to subpar bookings in 2012. Since 2012, management has significantly increased booking every quarter. Allot's book to bill ratio has remained higher than 1 since 2012. The strong growth in bookings has started to produce significant revenue growth. In 2014, revenue has rebounded nicely from 2013. In the first half of 2014, revenue has grown 24.5%. Additionally, rev growth has coincided with improved profitabili

  • petercohen33 petercohen33 11 hours ago Flag

    These orders were secured from Latin America, Europe, and the United States. Management has continue to secure new customers. Yet, the company has also experienced strong demand from the customer base. Market Watch reports Allot received two expansion orders worth over $5 million each from Tier-1 mobile operators in October. The two Tier-1 mobile orders are in addition to a $15 million expansion order by another customer in September. The company's strong booking activity combine with an undervalued stock presents a great opportunity for investors.
    Data: Reuters- Allot Financial

    Allot's stock has declined 30.0% year to date. The decline has occurred despite a strong financial performance in the first half of 2014. Fortunately, the stock decline presents an interesting opportunity for investors. Allot's stock is trading at a significant discount based on P/B compared to both the industry and sector. Additionally, Allot is trading at a similar valuation to the industry which has grown much slower. As revenue continues to grow double digits, investors should be more willing to pay a higher premium for the stock. Even if Allot's growth rate remains flat, investors should be willing to pay closer to 4 times sales. Yet, Allot should be able to grow faster than its trailing twelve month average. Allot investors should benefit from a significant amount of multiple expansion. The recent 30.0% decline has resulted in the company's stock becoming undervalued compared to the industry and sector. Especially since, management has fixed the company's booking issues and is focusing more on the mobile market. The increased focus on the mobile market is very important to the company's U.S. expansion efforts.

  • Summary
    •Allot operates in the deep packet inspection or DPI market. This market has and is expected to continue to grow rapidly.
    •Despite 2013, Allot has been able to take advantage of the DPI market's rapid growth. In 2013, Allot's subpar financial performance was the result of booking weakness in 2012.
    •Yet since 2012, the company has experienced strong booking activity every quarter. Allot's strong booking activity has started to produce significant revenue growth. This growth should continue.
    •The DPI market is growing, Procera is struggling, and management is focusing more on the mobile market. Additionally, U.S. revenue should benefit most from management's shift in focus.
    •Allot is well positioned for growth and their stock is currently undervalued. As revenue and profitability continue to improve, the stock should start to trend higher.

    Allot Communications Ltd. (ALLT) is a provider of deep packet inspection or DPI products. DPI solutions are used by service providers to help manage their network's performance. Over the last several years, Allot has been able to rapidly grow revenue. From 2009-2013, revenue grew at a CAGR of 23.3%. The company's strong revenue growth has coincided with improving profitability. Gross profit margin has slightly improved by 60 basis points while operating and net income margins have improved by 5.4 and 11.7 percentage points, respectively. Allot's financial performance has been strong. Except in 2013, revenue declined 7.8%. Allot's revenue decline resulted in the company losing its market leadership position to Sandvine Corporation (SNVNF). Allot's subpar 2013 performance was the result of booking weakness in 2012. Yet since 2012, management has been able to significantly increase booking activity and is starting to experience significant revenue growth. In the first half of 2014, revenue grew 24.5% and 32.8% in Q2. Additionally, the company's profitability has continued to improve.

  • Ronald L. Chez serves as president and sole owner of Ronald L. Chez, Inc., a corporation that deals with financial management consulting, public and private investments, turnaround strategies, structuring of new ventures, and mergers and acquisitions.

    He is currently chairman of the board of Epiworks, a compound semiconductor materials company, as well as serving as the chairman of the Chez Family Foundation, which funds college scholarships for inner city students, and activities that are supportive of military veterans, including the Center for Wounded Veterans and Higher Education, at the University of Illinois.

    Chez’s past experience includes: Serving on the advisory boards of JP Morgan Chase and Hambrecht & Quist Access Technology Fund; advisor to Motorola’s New Ventures Program; board membership and investment committee member for Abbott Capital; consultant and board member for Motorola Process Control and Motorola Teleprograms; and board member and investor in Preview Media (now Travelocity).

    PS Ronald Chez initiated a large position 5% plus prior to reverse stock split , he accumulated his first position around $6 per share adjusted for reverse stock split. Merriman was Procera initial banker when Alex Kurtz use to work there before moving to Stern Agee. Procera raised a small amount of capitol prior to reverse stock split at 0.47 + $4.70 adjusted for split.

  • petercohen33 by petercohen33 Oct 17, 2014 4:28 PM Flag

    A few comments, Management has not spoken to analyst and has not provided Street with any guidance beyond current calendar year. That haircut of 20 Million across the board by all Sell Side Analyst representing 2015 Top Line was the Streets way of saying #$%$ u missed guidance 1X 2 Many. The fact that 2014 was flat one should not extrapolate / take to the bank 2015 will be too. It is fair to say 2nd half 2014 Sales are getting pushed out to 2015 do to 1) Unfortunate circumstance of vender being unable to deliver important component to ship items that were scheduled to be delivered in Q4 2) a # of large Sales that JB & Team anticipated to book during current calendar year being pushed out to next year.
    wedgecake • 23 hours ago
    you're right, I was using a 2015 sales est of 78m. The 2014 total is now around 71.5. 2013 was 74.7 and 2015 is est to be around 75.6..Zero growth from y/e 2013 thru 2015 when the overall dpi biz is growing 20-23%.
    We will be bagholders for the next 2 years it seems. The share buyback talk is a waste of time now in light of above. Procera will be burning cash for the next 2 years. 8 bucks is my target now.... Wedge I don't know how you can take to the bank these Analyst estimates they are setting the bar in the abyss , they are #$%$ and acting accordingly. Procera could potentially have a Big year in 2015 they will have a # of catalyst kick in both on the Enterprise & NFV / SDN they did not benefit from this year . For those of you mentioning $12 as a fair take out realize that price represents a 2X of EV based on a 70 Million run rate. 240 Million = $12 per share / 100 Million Cash + 70x2=140 =240 / 20 Million Shares

  • Reply to

    CEO Should resign

    by uma_vok Oct 15, 2014 9:55 PM
    petercohen33 petercohen33 Oct 16, 2014 2:28 PM Flag

    wedge I believe your #'s are off a little , based on 70-75 range that gives Q4 A 20-25 range . Q1 15 Q2 21 Q3 16 = 52 + 28 = 80

  • Reply to

    CEO Should resign

    by uma_vok Oct 15, 2014 9:55 PM
    petercohen33 petercohen33 Oct 16, 2014 12:43 PM Flag

    photonsculptor100 JB's skill set is definitely on The Sales Side. He spent five years with Cisco Systems with responsibility for delivering more than $800M in annual revenue

  • Reply to

    Why is Allot Upp 4.2%??

    by wedgecake Oct 15, 2014 12:50 PM
    petercohen33 petercohen33 Oct 16, 2014 12:32 PM Flag

    Telecom equipment/component stocks rally following Adtran's earnings • 4:07 PM
    Eric Jhonsa, SA News Editor
    •In an encouraging sign for beaten-down telecom equipment and chip/component stocks, Adtran (ADTN +5.7%) managed to rally even though it guided on its Q3 CC (transcript) for a low-to-mid teens Q/Q revenue drop. Consensus (doesn't appear to have fully accounted for Adtran's Q3 warning) was for revenue to drop 2% to $154.9M in Q4.
    •Adtran attributed much of its Q3 weakness to "a decline in Europe as a large project there had a seasonal slowdown." Enterprise softness also took a toll.
    •The company "[expects] to see an upturn in this business" in 2015, but European sales are expected to remain soft in Q4. Other equipment vendors, such as Juniper (JNPR +2%) and Ciena (CIEN +2.7%), have provided weak guidance blamed on U.S. wireline capex; AT&T is generally seen as a big culprit.
    •In addition to Juniper and Ciena, many other industry names have closed with healthy gains. PKT +6.3%. INFN +3.4%. ZHNE +6.7%. ALLT +5.2%. AFOP +4.5%. AMCC +12.5%. CYNI +4%. CALX +3.3%. FNSR +3.1%. UBNT +4.2%. OPLK +3.4%. RKUS +3.3%

  • petercohen33 petercohen33 Oct 15, 2014 4:39 PM Flag

    Impressive intra-day reversal to upside by Sandvine / SVC.TO .After trading down 4% / (0.10) @ 2.34 closed up 4.51% / 0.11 @ 2.55

  • Telecom equipment/component stocks rally following Adtran's earnings • 4:07 PM
    Eric Jhonsa, SA News Editor
    •In an encouraging sign for beaten-down telecom equipment and chip/component stocks, Adtran (ADTN +5.7%) managed to rally even though it guided on its Q3 CC (transcript) for a low-to-mid teens Q/Q revenue drop. Consensus (doesn't appear to have fully accounted for Adtran's Q3 warning) was for revenue to drop 2% to $154.9M in Q4.
    •Adtran attributed much of its Q3 weakness to "a decline in Europe as a large project there had a seasonal slowdown." Enterprise softness also took a toll.
    •The company "[expects] to see an upturn in this business" in 2015, but European sales are expected to remain soft in Q4. Other equipment vendors, such as Juniper (JNPR +2%) and Ciena (CIEN +2.7%), have provided weak guidance blamed on U.S. wireline capex; AT&T is generally seen as a big culprit.
    •In addition to Juniper and Ciena, many other industry names have closed with healthy gains. PKT +6.3%. INFN +3.4%. ZHNE +6.7%. ALLT +5.2%. AFOP +4.5%. AMCC +12.5%. CYNI +4%. CALX +3.3%. FNSR +3.1%. UBNT +4.2%. OPLK +3.4%. RKUS +3.3%.

  • petercohen33 petercohen33 Oct 15, 2014 9:45 AM Flag

    Procera’s NAVL engine has allowed us to build Next-Generation Firewalls with the confidence that we have industry-leading technology that delivers up-to-the minute protection, superior visibility and comprehensive policy management.”

    NAVL’s industry-leading traffic signature database is updated on a continual basis, allowing solution providers to keep their products current with today’s evolving network landscape - including malicious sites, security threats and potential sources of Internet abuse. NAVL is a next-generation Deep Packet Inspection (DPI) software engine that provides real-time, Layer-7 classification of network traffic.

    According to Seiichiro Sato, Director of Global Product Marketing, Allied Telesis: “We are seeing considerable demand from customers looking for an integrated solution across their networks from the edge to the core. Our Next-Generation Firewalls deliver greater visibility and control over the enterprise network and provide a simpler infrastructure to administer and manage.”

    With an extensive array of features and functionality – including application-aware, high-throughput threat prevention, single pane of glass management, and integration with leading edge IP reputation and anti-malware services – the Allied Telesis Next-Generation Firewalls deliver a fiercely competitive solution to the market.

  • Sydney, 15 October 2014 - Allied Telesis, a global provider of secure IP/Ethernet solutions and an industry leader in the deployment of IP Triple Play networks, today announced that it has selected the Network Application Visibility Library (NAVL) from Procera Networks for its new series of Next-Generation Firewalls. Packed with the latest threat protection functionality, and featuring Procera’s NAVL engine to provide granular traffic visibility, intelligence and control, the Allied Telesis Next-Generation Firewalls deliver a powerful, flexible, and highly configurable security solution.

    As cyber threats continue to evolve and become more sophisticated, targeted and tailored attacks increasingly defeat traditional defenses. The problem now requires a solution with greater intelligence, control and insight. Allied Telesis has partnered its own specialised hardware with Procera’s NAVL software engine to create a high performance security platform with integrated application control, intrusion prevention, policy management and actionable reporting.

    Allied Telesis is no stranger to information security. The company has developed security appliances for more than 20 years, and was one of the first vendors to deploy Virtual Private Network (VPN) functionality within its devices. The new firewalls are a revolution for the organisation, and raise internal and external threat protection and network resource optimisation to a whole new level to cope with the demands of Bring Your Own Device (BYOD) and the “Internet of Things.”

    “Using Procera’s NAVL engine was an easy decision to make when we saw the power and flexibility it brought to our solution,” said Graham Walker, Senior Product Manager at Allied Telesis. “Application, content and user control are essential features of our Next-Generation Firewalls, but so are performance and manageability.

  • petercohen33 petercohen33 Oct 14, 2014 2:06 PM Flag

    pk JB does engender goodwill nor gained any credibility amongst his co-worker & board members by , " spewing the same rhetoric " . JB is not playing with house $ he is walking on egg shells / very guarded after two years in a row of missing " now 3 years " his mark. Independent director Saponas has been with Procera in a director capacity prior to JB's employment with the firm. Professionally he was the CTO of Agilent Corporation. Many years ago TS was a lead investor in a capitol raise investing 1 million $ in Procera. He might live in the Mid West not be involved in day to day operations but he certainly has his pulse on this Company through relationships developed over last 10 years.

  • petercohen33 petercohen33 Oct 14, 2014 12:59 PM Flag

    photonsculptor100 , one thing I can assure you Procera Board is very conservative they are not looking to talk the talk and not walk the walk. September did not treat Procera well in reference to meeting revenue projections for 2014 calendar year. August earning release conference call and both conferences with Oppenheimer & Deutsche JB & Team felt confident but guarded 15% growth with the assistance of closing a few important large deals was within reach. At some point during the month of September a important vender dropped the ball on them and intimated their ability to deliver a important component for this product , " Procera Networks Upgrades PL20000 Platform to Industry Leading 600 Gbps Throughput " was compromised. Q2 B2B 23 Million represented orders for delivery of this product during this calendar year . That issue certainly represent part of the reason Procera will not meet guidance this year. The Sell Side analyst community kick this company to the curb hard. Procera is the poster child of a Show Me Stock now, Analyst Community is unwilling to b sympathetic of give JB & Team the benefit of the doubt anymore.

  • petercohen33 petercohen33 Oct 14, 2014 12:26 PM Flag

    photonsculptor100 Saponas sold a commensurate amount of stock $20 -$ 25 he was all to happy at the time to reposition / maintain similar exposure at a fraction of the price. I do not believe takeover speculation played a roll in him reinitiating exposure I believe he has followed the growth & development through the eyes of Procera's Management Team , felt Procera is a very relevant company in a attractive growth space , liked the valuation relative to peers and wanted in.

PKT
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