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New York Mortgage Trust Inc. Message Board

pfzelechoski 67 posts  |  Last Activity: Oct 24, 2014 10:29 AM Member since: Jan 22, 2004
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  • pfzelechoski by pfzelechoski Oct 24, 2014 10:29 AM Flag

    Just an opinion...and not mine....so don't shoot the messenger.

    Golf game yesterday with a long time friend. VERY good ties to Middle East.
    Sentiment seems to be that price of Saudi participation is stabilization of oil prices.
    His guess was mid 90s.

    Not sure how that gets accomplished, but would look to the election results and first
    cold snap. EU getting their act together was his wild card. Look to see how UK takes
    "fine" for doing better than the Continent.

    All think tank geo politics, but certainly more informed than I am.

    Oh, and I lost the Nassau to throw the party at the 19th hole.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    I

    by caliumhound Oct 23, 2014 9:47 AM
    pfzelechoski pfzelechoski Oct 23, 2014 10:07 AM Flag

    Vote early and often to change the political approach to energy policy!!!!!
    Much better use of my time in the next two weeks.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • I think playing short term trader is nuts most of the time.
    My time horizon and financial stability allow me that perspective.
    But, this market is getting too easy to game with worry warts and worse.

    Another 10% on 25% of my holdings day brings the cost basis down without
    increasing the exposure. It is getting easier to justify a third bullet and perhaps
    one after that. Not yet, but near.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Fuel Cell Bus

    by jstokcton Oct 22, 2014 8:41 AM
    pfzelechoski pfzelechoski Oct 22, 2014 3:31 PM Flag

    Did you finally see one?
    Do you think this is a new phenomenon?

    Me thinkst thou art a bit tardy in your education.

    Post election however, it will be time to revisit this company.
    NG as stock for Hydrogen production is a very viable future.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    US dollar heading back up....

    by nsleesman Oct 22, 2014 9:50 AM
    pfzelechoski pfzelechoski Oct 22, 2014 11:09 AM Flag

    Do not believe you will be proved correct, but that is what makes a market.

    I am taking the other side of the trade, mainly due to international political imperatives.

    Golf game Thursday with college friend who is analyst for a decent think tank.
    Trust his expertise. Many topics will arise, along with good cigars and a competitive Nassau.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Just a thought

    by drill_baby_drill3 Oct 22, 2014 10:38 AM
    pfzelechoski pfzelechoski Oct 22, 2014 11:03 AM Flag

    As diversification from NG perhaps, but ECA has best attitude about "learning curve" of drilling the TMS.

    Opinion...mine only...Spring 2015 perhaps some rumors become reality. By then Saudis will have made their voice heard about needed price to financially support US effort against ISIL. Only backhanded way US can limit Iranian meddling support of non-state Shiites. Besides, Russia is getting the message with the price damage to the Ruble.

    It is not just about US drilling. The game is MUCH larger.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Won't last

    by njjmatt Oct 21, 2014 12:06 PM
    pfzelechoski pfzelechoski Oct 22, 2014 8:44 AM Flag

    No. Good sarcasm is sadly under appreciated, apparently also by you.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Won't last

    by njjmatt Oct 21, 2014 12:06 PM
    pfzelechoski pfzelechoski Oct 22, 2014 8:31 AM Flag

    If you don't mind my asking, what changed from the reasons you got in? When was that?
    or
    As is more likely:
    Are you just now learning that Cheetos stains are difficult for your mother to get out
    of your bathrobe?

    If you are going to post nonsense at least make it entertaining.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • pfzelechoski pfzelechoski Oct 22, 2014 8:13 AM Flag

    The words used will certainly hit many search criteria, but I doubt the informed nature of your "news".
    Sovereigns are very likely covering in anticipation of Saudi compliance with recent Iranian demands.
    Perhaps same thing you said, but a WHOLE lot more informed.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Predictions

    by drill_baby_drill3 Oct 21, 2014 12:09 PM
    pfzelechoski pfzelechoski Oct 21, 2014 12:53 PM Flag

    Even though technical analysis is in the eye of the beholder, my trades are with this in mind:

    Trading above $4 beyond 11/10
    with 50MA cross near $4.46 by Thanksgiving

    beyond that....
    Yes oil is a finite resource
    No oil and gas will not be replaced significantly in the near future

    Its your money. Do the research and make your bet!!!

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Thank god

    by njjmatt Oct 20, 2014 4:26 PM
    pfzelechoski pfzelechoski Oct 21, 2014 11:32 AM Flag

    I have a core position that I trade around and YES I have had "profits" recently. They continue to be reflected in my lowering cost basis. I am down from north of $6 to no quite $4. While losing roughly $15K, to me that is a win in an admittedly bad environment.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • pfzelechoski by pfzelechoski Oct 21, 2014 9:55 AM Flag

    Any takers on 4/5 and 11/5 being same price? Two weeks out and I am itching to fire my third bullet. For once I am a fan of Iran. Not really, but in this VERY narrow instance think their view will be honored by the Saudis. Too bad that would help Putin, but you can't have everything!!!

    Still not idiot predicting an immediate moonshot on PPS, but am encouraged the worst is over.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • pfzelechoski pfzelechoski Oct 20, 2014 9:45 AM Flag

    How then are you ready to explain the Saudi reaction to Iran's threat if their need for higher prices is not considered? Instability in the monarchies is the key, not stockpiles. Do just a little research before you open mouth and remove all doubt.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • pfzelechoski by pfzelechoski Oct 17, 2014 1:29 PM Flag

    If you can't beat them.....Just lowering cost basis, but this market is allowing me to round trip for very decent day trades. Long term bullish, but for the time being I'll trade around my 20K shares. No volume on the run below 3.00 so I buy back @ 2.92 and bid the day adieu. We will see what Monday brings.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Technicalsl

    by pfzelechoski Oct 6, 2014 4:23 PM
    pfzelechoski pfzelechoski Oct 8, 2014 9:43 AM Flag

    For what it is worth....credit for covered call gains and a bit of short term trading I am at about $4.68 give or take a penny. Once was over $6, but if you watch my posts, I am solvent enough to have additional bullets along this miserable trade.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Technicalsl

    by pfzelechoski Oct 6, 2014 4:23 PM
    pfzelechoski pfzelechoski Oct 7, 2014 10:12 AM Flag

    So, you buy buy buy with no regard? I still hold 20K shares. Not a lot, but my money. We will see about the technical, but as to the man up.....pretty sure I let my money speak for itself (without the Cheetos stains).

    Sentiment: Hold

  • pfzelechoski by pfzelechoski Oct 6, 2014 4:23 PM Flag

    I just bought back all my covered calls today.

    Macro, I think 11/5/2014 will be important as the results of the midterm will dictate the next two years of national energy policy.

    Micro, the signal of this selloff by the cross of 50 day in July and confirmed 8 days later looks to be tested on the way up @ $4.46. If HK closes above I think that part of the sector recovery is attractive. The 200 day by XMAS would be frosting on the cake.

    Perhaps I will believe my own research and fire my third bullet 10/31. Not willing to commit at these lower levels.

    My two cents....what is yours???

    Sentiment: Hold

  • pfzelechoski pfzelechoski Oct 6, 2014 3:56 PM Flag

    My previous post on this stock and subject might not sit well with your style of "investing", but what I cashed on HYGS I have lost in shale/fracking. However, I believe even by Spring 2015 the sector will be vindicated. For the time being....at least I own multiple stocks and sectors.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    The silence of management

    by rcunj Sep 22, 2014 1:10 PM
    pfzelechoski pfzelechoski Sep 30, 2014 3:10 PM Flag

    As long as Mgmt is not the one lending their shares to those who wish to short...then all bets are off. If you are long, have you instructed your brokerage to hold the physical shares? If not then you are part of your own problem. Buy back plan implies that the undeveloped resource is worth more than the money that would be spent on development and de-risking.......which is one of the legs threatening this three legged stool in the current environment. If either of my above universes changes then I will re evaluate my position. Until then....it supplies a need in my diversified portfolio. I may not be happy, but I won't be broke even if it goes to zero.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • pfzelechoski by pfzelechoski Sep 30, 2014 11:28 AM Flag

    Fifth test in five days of $4.10. Still think short term the fundamentals are negative. Waiting for
    November elections and first frost short term. Not too worried beyond the Spring. Even SWA has seen their hedge for Q4 2015 rise in the last two weeks.

    Sentiment: Hold

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