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Baidu, Inc. Message Board

pfzelechoski 307 posts  |  Last Activity: 18 hours ago Member since: Jan 22, 2004
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  • Reply to

    OIL commodity prices

    by kirbydecker Mar 7, 2015 11:24 AM
    pfzelechoski pfzelechoski 18 hours ago Flag

    No. no, knowing, negative, nod....

    Sentiment: Hold

  • pfzelechoski pfzelechoski 18 hours ago Flag

    So you want this credit driven train wreck to keep going in a rush to the bottom?

    That is why I am hoarding cash. I will find better value later.

    IMHO

    Sentiment: Hold

  • pfzelechoski pfzelechoski 21 hours ago Flag

    My last real trades Monday have brought me back since January to about 60% cash. Hoping I don't get itchy until there is some real conviction in the market. Actually thought FED would raise in June, but they appear too chicken. Strangely, perhaps political turmoil may embolden them. Sure hope they do two raises by December.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Hedges and Oil Going Up

    by downtime37 Mar 25, 2015 9:19 PM
    pfzelechoski pfzelechoski 21 hours ago Flag

    I did tend to read it as sarcasm which was probably your intent, but also trying not to hear from the posters who inevitably would have cited fraud or manipulation which I think we both agree is ridiculous at those volumes.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Hedges and Oil Going Up

    by downtime37 Mar 25, 2015 9:19 PM
    pfzelechoski pfzelechoski 21 hours ago Flag

    And one of my Father's favorite lines that still rings in my ears...."That's what makes a Market", Between that line and my first boss's (next door neighbor's Chines restaurant dish washer) "The reason you have a job is because you make me money"

    Pretty much the motivation of my life.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Hedges and Oil Going Up

    by downtime37 Mar 25, 2015 9:19 PM
    pfzelechoski pfzelechoski 21 hours ago Flag

    Come on....If a one share trade, or for that matter most after hours trades, can influence any significant volume in a stock you choose to trade, I for one would look for another stock. Strangely, it makes the case for the reverse split so feared that would discourage similar activity by increasing the effective cost of such idiocy.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • pfzelechoski pfzelechoski 21 hours ago Flag

    KBR...If you are correct about the two year timeframe, and I think you are close, then the bet here is survival (I'm onboard with that), commodity rebound (pretty sure that will happen within two years), and the geology/science/technology of an Exploration company (been my bet on HK vice production company).
    Perhaps it is too early for a major play on any of these companies, but downside risk lies in the survival part of the equation. As per last CC "if I'd have known..." comment from Wilson, I would like a better balance sheet. However, I still think there is money to be made by selectively buying on strength now that hopefully the world is valuing risk in the price of oil. Baaken didn't have rocket launchers last time I looked.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Joe Winslow reporting...

    by joewinslow111 Mar 24, 2015 6:04 PM
    pfzelechoski pfzelechoski Mar 25, 2015 6:16 PM Flag

    Absolutely true in a metric where 50% of participants were above 75% failure rate.

    Make you feel better with that company?
    Hope the singles analogy was not too hard for you to fathom.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Geo Politics

    by pfzelechoski Mar 25, 2015 2:35 PM
    pfzelechoski pfzelechoski Mar 25, 2015 2:40 PM Flag

    Not even my call. And don't think that kind of snap back would be healthy, even for
    oil companies. However, higher rather than lower with an appreciation for risk I think is certain.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • pfzelechoski by pfzelechoski Mar 25, 2015 2:35 PM Flag

    Garnering any believers?
    Not wishing for war, but do you really think this administration is going to change
    world opinion about stable policy?
    Not a miracle cure, but one step in proper direction to sector recovery.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    TUVM

    by pfzelechoski Mar 20, 2015 12:12 PM
    pfzelechoski pfzelechoski Mar 25, 2015 2:06 PM Flag

    Even my wife commented on our way out for lunch about SWKS.
    Even a blind squirrel.....

    Still a great company by my estimation.
    My circumstance aided some amazing timing.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Joe Winslow reporting...

    by joewinslow111 Mar 24, 2015 6:04 PM
    pfzelechoski pfzelechoski Mar 25, 2015 12:38 PM Flag

    Not a bad record....Just remember

    Everyone's zeros are different.

    Be happy it seems you managed whatever you chose to invest seemingly well.

    I am a Tony Gwynn type investor to keep my hometown analogy going.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Joe Winslow reporting...

    by joewinslow111 Mar 24, 2015 6:04 PM
    pfzelechoski pfzelechoski Mar 25, 2015 10:22 AM Flag

    Opinion Only disclaimer....

    True test of Supply side will be the necessity to retain leases (particularly in the Baaken). Depletion will eventually take care of domestic shale production rates, but (IMHO) SA is about to learn it needs more money and less production to fund defense.

    Is 40ish a low....probably with some retracement and volatility. Is 20s a danger, I don't think so. Futures market has settled into 12-15% premium form spot in the six month range and that indicates to me that storage is finally being factored.

    I still favor HK limiting production to hedged cash flow needs and using operating funds to retain leases. My time frame is longer than most here so hold me to early 2016 if you wish, but I hope to double from my cost basis by that time.

    Someone posted elsewhere here about LNG exports. If Hillary not as sure, but regardless will occur in the next POTUS cycle.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Joe Winslow reporting...

    by joewinslow111 Mar 24, 2015 6:04 PM
    pfzelechoski pfzelechoski Mar 25, 2015 9:20 AM Flag

    Wear the thumbs down with pride, you likely have a stalker opposed to meaningful discussion.

    Thanks again for your last. Not a convert, but had already said I would look for strength to take another shot at a trade.

    If HK can hold $1.94 I will try again for $2.50. I guess my bands are just narrower than yours.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • pfzelechoski pfzelechoski Mar 25, 2015 9:15 AM Flag

    Check back over the last week's posts. Thoroughly discussed.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Perma Bears

    by pfzelechoski Mar 23, 2015 10:51 AM
    pfzelechoski pfzelechoski Mar 24, 2015 4:44 PM Flag

    Won't contradict the argument that a stock price that rises on its own is preferable to one where a company reduces the numerical float to raise the price. I do make the argument that to the extent that it shakes out the day trader with limited funds, it may not be a bad thing. Execution and commodity price recovery are still the only metrics that matter in the medium term.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Perma Bears

    by pfzelechoski Mar 23, 2015 10:51 AM
    pfzelechoski pfzelechoski Mar 24, 2015 4:35 PM Flag

    Pretty sure same as I expressed in the beginning, and probably wouldn't expect more from corporate spokesperson.
    It is a whole lot better communication than WLL used in prepping the market for financial transactions. You never know if a large investor would like the luxury of negotiating a new position without battling affecting market price in small lots.

    In that respect could be good for the smaller investor. Its all about the use of the proceeds. Paying salaries....not good. Paying down credit line....good.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    biofuels

    by divin4tacos Mar 24, 2015 11:04 AM
    pfzelechoski pfzelechoski Mar 24, 2015 1:57 PM Flag

    If you ever have the chance to drive or ride in a true electric motor vehicle (engine @ the wheel) you will know only how true the future of electric vehicles is. Torque to beat the band. Unfortunately, Renewables and the grid are not prepared for that future.

    Heck we can't even seem to get CNG for commercial trucking. I'll hopefully be playing...hit ball drag Phil...golf in my 90s by your timeline, But, you are correct petroleum for byproducts yes for transportation no somewhere near your guess.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    biofuels

    by divin4tacos Mar 24, 2015 11:04 AM
    pfzelechoski pfzelechoski Mar 24, 2015 12:12 PM Flag

    It was an attempt at alliteration Cs.....

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    biofuels

    by divin4tacos Mar 24, 2015 11:04 AM
    pfzelechoski pfzelechoski Mar 24, 2015 11:08 AM Flag

    Can you say Iowa Caucuses and Presidential Politcs???
    Feed corn to your Cattle and Chickens not to your car!!!!

    Sentiment: Hold

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