Hobo, I hate to sound like a broken record, but there's a place where you can be fully appreciated (not sure about compensated, but I suppose anything is possible). Hint - its not on this (yahoo) board.
What the F..k you're talking about? 1. - I'm not a "reporter" and 2. how can I even "report" you to anyone if I never understood a single sentence of yours? The only reason I even posted in this Zoo was to rebut a complete fabrication if someone "new" sees it and acts accordingly. The only reason I even look here is to see what Hobo has to say (if any), not any other clown here.
This is the absolutely false (a lie):
JKS is already profitable (even without provision reversal) and will be each Q of the year going forward and for the whole year;
CSIQ is already operationally profitable (red was due to ferex loss) and will be profitable for the year;
TSL will post profit in at leat Q4
Major Chinese 7 US listed, will be profitable going forward.
Welcome back to Earth.
Hobo, maybe posting in that other forum (in both good times and bad) would be more useful as people there WOULD listen and would offer much more in a way of a two way (or more) discussion, while being mostly civilized.
I know I sound like a broken record, but being there especially during the tough time helped me internally to stay committed and more focused.
Might want to revise your "re-entry" price targets....UP. Significantly.
Thanks, Hobo, for your insights. This place became a Zoo a long time ago (except when you post). The "non-zoo" crowd moved over to Odyd's site. It would be great for every one there (I'm speaking for myself, but am 100% confident every one there with the identical wish) if you would consider to join.
Who besides JKS and CSIQ? TSL will be profitable in Q4 and maybe in Q3. Will it be enough to offset Q1 and Q2? Besides above three, who else can be profitable for the entire year?
With earnings season for US listed Chinese solars right around the corner, assuming they will explain EU's resolution effect for each company, are you planning to re-start SA articles due to more predictability?
Hobo, what is your view on EU tariffs resolution? It appears they will not announce the actual minimum price (which will be attached to an index and may fluctuate with it) nor the actual cap in GW (just stating 60% of EU market). Based on that, do you have a feeling that YGE and TSL will actually get a larger piece of the future shipping quota than their past relative percentage market share in EU (probably at the expense of smaller guys who will not be able to ship at the price since no one will buy their panel due to inferiority who were able to sell them before only at depressed prices)? It seems that whatever the minimum price, it is significantly (at least 10% or so) higher than they're selling currently at. And if so EU will become highest ASP market relative to MW/GW shipped at a price (in other words highest ASP market for mass shipment). Wouldn't YGE and TSL instantly benefit from it more so than all other US listed Chinese solars (more MW/GW shipped at highest ASPs - instant profit)? If you do not mind sharing your views on that. Thanks.
Or maybe its down so that all those doubters understand how valuable his site is and how useless this one is (except for Hobo's posts, too bad he does not want to join). Under $10/month is peanuts. What at the alternatives? Yahoo and Co.?
Hi Hobo. Good to know that all is well. I'm in the same camp: "certain names would survive and that economic logic would revert earnings back to a sustainable norm at some point." Since its been a long time and thinkg might have changed, do you mind sharing those "certain names", please.
JKS is the ONLY 100% fully integrated (except poly): wafer=cell=module - 1.2GW ea.
Really? LDK sold its cell plant, I'm not even going to address SOL (a.k.a. still mostly a poly/wafer player).
It seems that their current low cash position is no longer a going concern due to CDB financing. Does it mean they are as good to survive as TSL and YGE?
Well CSIQ stated over 20% margins on projects side and everyone favorit "forcaster" - SOL - just stated 10% margins on modules under normalized conditions (which they expect sometimes next year). Since I know you're very good in math you can come up with average margins based on 50/50 split assumtion.
Well Hobo, spammers aside, that idiot "snake" is still around spitting his poison. What is interesting to me, is he admitted to having no (solar) position(s) yet his posts are either attacking you on every negative news released or giving an insanely detailed "numbers" on why no solar will be profitable (that's for a person with no exposure other than solar panels on roofs of his homes, at least that's what he says). Having said all above and looking back 18 months or so, all his "preaching" some how came to fruition. I do not for a second buy his side, its just when you're constantly negative in a cyclical industry you bound to be "right" when downturn comes (a.k.a Gordo).
Well Hobo I understand what you're saying, but lets assume the following: someone already has (say for easy calculation) 30K share of TSL at $10 average (thats already $300K invested). So what's an other $60K or so, to buy 30K more shares at say $2? Average on 60K shares is now only $6.
Please, remember that last November TSL also dipped under $6 only to rise above $12 (for no reason along with all other solars) past February. So who's to say that TSL will not rise back to $6 by February 2013 allowing someone to get out even? I'm not suggesting to average down on likes of STP or LDK, but why not on TSL and JKS (above example applies equally to JKS as well, but its a lot harder to get in and out of it with any volume) - both dropped significantly. CSIQ maybe a good play for 2013 due to projects, but it did not drop in price nearly as much as TSL and JKS.
Its a "classic" investment into a "good" company ( guess we're in agreement that TSL is not going anywhere, currently with best #$%$, nor unlikely to be nationalized). To significantly average down, one doubles, tripples or whatever at $2 or so, right? Then if one does not have time to wait, its a lot easier to get out on any (solar) market upswing
- asps rise - just as in over supplied market asps dropped, they will have to rise back up in under supplied (or even in a balanced) one
- production rises significantly (not just by 50%) - it will require a lot of capex for which they have no money now and equity infusion will no longer help even when/if pps rise from current levels
- significant increase in power plants (same as asp increases) - right now it looks like the only option that can be profitable, but what happens once they're all in extreme downstream? and what happens to suppliers only (wafers/cell) when they will no longer be able to supply at current prices? - asps in the whole supply chain will have to rise to be at least break even