JKS is the ONLY 100% fully integrated (except poly): wafer=cell=module - 1.2GW ea.
Really? LDK sold its cell plant, I'm not even going to address SOL (a.k.a. still mostly a poly/wafer player).
It seems that their current low cash position is no longer a going concern due to CDB financing. Does it mean they are as good to survive as TSL and YGE?
Well CSIQ stated over 20% margins on projects side and everyone favorit "forcaster" - SOL - just stated 10% margins on modules under normalized conditions (which they expect sometimes next year). Since I know you're very good in math you can come up with average margins based on 50/50 split assumtion.
Well Hobo, spammers aside, that idiot "snake" is still around spitting his poison. What is interesting to me, is he admitted to having no (solar) position(s) yet his posts are either attacking you on every negative news released or giving an insanely detailed "numbers" on why no solar will be profitable (that's for a person with no exposure other than solar panels on roofs of his homes, at least that's what he says). Having said all above and looking back 18 months or so, all his "preaching" some how came to fruition. I do not for a second buy his side, its just when you're constantly negative in a cyclical industry you bound to be "right" when downturn comes (a.k.a Gordo).
Well Hobo I understand what you're saying, but lets assume the following: someone already has (say for easy calculation) 30K share of TSL at $10 average (thats already $300K invested). So what's an other $60K or so, to buy 30K more shares at say $2? Average on 60K shares is now only $6.
Please, remember that last November TSL also dipped under $6 only to rise above $12 (for no reason along with all other solars) past February. So who's to say that TSL will not rise back to $6 by February 2013 allowing someone to get out even? I'm not suggesting to average down on likes of STP or LDK, but why not on TSL and JKS (above example applies equally to JKS as well, but its a lot harder to get in and out of it with any volume) - both dropped significantly. CSIQ maybe a good play for 2013 due to projects, but it did not drop in price nearly as much as TSL and JKS.
Its a "classic" investment into a "good" company ( guess we're in agreement that TSL is not going anywhere, currently with best #$%$, nor unlikely to be nationalized). To significantly average down, one doubles, tripples or whatever at $2 or so, right? Then if one does not have time to wait, its a lot easier to get out on any (solar) market upswing
- asps rise - just as in over supplied market asps dropped, they will have to rise back up in under supplied (or even in a balanced) one
- production rises significantly (not just by 50%) - it will require a lot of capex for which they have no money now and equity infusion will no longer help even when/if pps rise from current levels
- significant increase in power plants (same as asp increases) - right now it looks like the only option that can be profitable, but what happens once they're all in extreme downstream? and what happens to suppliers only (wafers/cell) when they will no longer be able to supply at current prices? - asps in the whole supply chain will have to rise to be at least break even
Well said, but I never understood who is (other than Rock's "stealth group" maybe) "supplying excesses" and why its constantly "keep coming out of the woodwork"? If I recall correctly, CSIQ stated last Thursday that China Tier-2 and Tier-3 are practically shut down and even China Tier-1 companies in financial dificulties (read bailed out), I know Shawn meant LDK and STP, have problems placing their products for obvious reasons. So who's buying all this supplied unwarranted and unbankable modules (I understand wafers and cells part, but not modules)? We're talking hundreds of millions if not billions dollars worth of modules each quarter.
Well, a) I'm hoping for those margins whenever things will get back to normalized conditions as a mix of modules and projects, b) I do not expect them getting there tomorrow or even next year and c) per your math, no one should buy TSL now (read never) nor any other China solar 11. I disagree. I strongly believe that once China ramps up, it will be big. If not, then there's no point even being here.
Well TSL did mention that China could be a 10GW market next year. JKS said that they'll ship 50% of production next year to China. All that may or may not matirialize next year (we expected a big China upswing in the second half of this year, which did not happen). So assuming China "will happen", the question still remains at what profitability for those that will survive. Unfortunately 30% margin of yester years are gone for good, and looks like the most we can hope for is half of that - 15% max. With that, return to $30 pps is just a memory. At this point $15pps for TSL and JKS a year from now would be fantastic, especially for those buying at current levels. Which means that buying TSL and CSIQ at $2s and JKS at $3s+ now will still yeld potential rewards late 2013/early 2014 even for those still holding shares at prices that we may never see again. So I see no choice but to average down on TSL and JKS for longer runs and CSIQ for a best 2013 play.
Unfortunately, no matter how painfull, I have to agree with you. TSL's report must be realy bad - 6:30AM conference call? They do not want anyone to attend.
Well it looks like this morning's news were "known" as early as a week ago - stock lost 20% since then. To be honest, the only consistensy that TSL shows is consistently missing their own guidance. They sound like SOL of year ago (of not knowing their own business), don't they? It appears that a brand is no longer a differentiating factor. Maybe Rock's theory of some unkonwn "third" entity in China that drives prices down and US listed companies to heavy losses every quarter, will hold water after all.
I was hoping for a rebound by spring of 2013. That does not look like happening at least until fall of next year. Who is going to be around after that to reward shareholders? Clearly they all will be around, but if they pull "LDK" (selling pieces of company for pennies), then will never see stock prices where we want them. Unfortunately waiting is the only game left for now.
Hobo, do you have any insides or clues on TSL's action over the last few days and specifically today? They're the only "solar 11" with (so called) volume and all on down side - all time lows and still falling with no rebound. TIA
Certainly a major news, but not entirely unexpected given LDK's board changes as a result of a partial "takeover" two weeks ago. Interesting, that "market" (unlike two weeks ago) does not care. No interest (volume) in LDK specifically and solar (except FSLR) in general.
If stock gets delisted, it will be traded on the OTC market instead of the exchange.
IMHO none of China solar 11 will. They can always do a reverse split as CSUN did.
Good to know that you're still checking in from time to time, Hobo. Agree with what you stated. Also volume is non-existent now. Once things will normalize (whenever that is), interest will come back and so will the volume. With it, we'll move up (those that still will be left standing, that is). Of course in mean time, some trading is still possible - i.e. JKS is the only chinese solar that almost doubled in less than 2 months. However, trading it in volume is impossible. So as you stated, waiting it out is about the only avenue left for us (longs). Of course we'll be bitting our elbows when or if they will become multi-baggers in a year or two (from this levels) and we did not add, but I understand your theory of not adding to average down anymore until things will be more clear. Reluctantly I've done the same even though I was itching to add a lot more.
vs. Europe's largest solar "installer" - Bayern Munchen.