Questcor Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (QCOR) Message Board

Have been steadily accumulating. At highest ownership position ever. This stock is heavily manipulated which creates significant opportunity for those with the tenacity to ride out the manipulations.

Sentiment: Strong Buy

Caught last batch at 35.10.
Amazing price.

Sentiment: Strong Buy

Mikey--yup.
I have accumulated my largest position yet in QCOR. Planning long hold on 80%, sell 20% on the bounce.
Thanks shorts.

Sentiment: Strong Buy

Same handle popped up on a board for UNXL--tech company. Only thing in common with QCOR is the overweight in shorted shares. I have been acquiring UNXL even though outside my usual biotech track.

Thanks Golden, didn't realize. Have been accumulating to finish a position way ahead of Q2--but will step it up.

Sentiment: Strong Buy

If I read your email right and you wait for $32, not thinking you will build much of a position. I've been accumulating on every dip for the past two weeks.

Sentiment: Strong Buy

Alien--
Yeah, I got the parody, was amused.

But also want to clarify one more time: Bailey was clear about the reimbursement center. He said it was not a key factor in the Q1 disappointment. As a result, I'm viewing Q1 as a blip and accumulating accordingly. Here is what he said:

" We mentioned this in the quarterly only because we had these other issues with respect to inventory and MS softness, otherwise we probably wouldn't have brought it up...impact in Q1 was about 5% of sales...expect that to sort itself out in Q2 and Q3."

My take? The RC never should have been mentioned in the first place and certainly some quantification should have accompanied any decision to mention. Ugh--but ok.

Similarly, I found the BAML presentation to be disjointed and incohesive...but the information was nevertheless compelling and the potential for Acthar appears to me greater than ever--led near term by rheumatology indications and longer term with nephropathy, migraine, and maybe even ALS.

Lastly, I am not at all surprised that half the rheumatology scripts are being generated outside the PM/DM focus, even at this early stage of marketing. There are five or six indications with the revenue potential of NS--and they all come from the same targets group of rheumatologists.

Really no stopping this company over the next several quarters--that's my opinion.

Sentiment: Strong Buy

Hilarious.

Sentiment: Strong Buy

Ok MaxD--but just FYI and with absolute certainty, I plan to attack you for not doing a forecast.

Sentiment: Strong Buy

LOL indeed mikey--you are so right. Cramer is generally dangerous and creepy (and for sale, I think), with a track record for being on the wrong side of biopharma trades.

Investors would fare far better doing the opposite of what he advises.

Sentiment: Strong Buy

Alien--
May be wiser to fix on the jist of what Bailey was saying and not the 5%. Maybe its 3%, maybe its 9%. Who cares really? As posted previously, I bailed on QCOR due to lack of clarity on the reimbursement center. Turns out--that was a mistake.

Now that Bailey has clarified, I'm back in. I don't question Bailey's ability or integrity, and if I did, I wouldn't invest the first dime in QCOR. He makes routine communication errors in my opinion, providing scant details on important issues, dropping bombs like the reimbursement center problem without clarifying how big the explosion is projected to be. But if you ask? He tells you. We did, and he did.

Ok--he's not great on the communication front--but nobody's perfect and I can live with it--because I think this guy is a top flight CEO, a disciplined and focused opportunist who pulled this company out of the fire, then turned it into a cash machine with a drug that contributes to the treatment of many seriously challenged patient populations.

I'll be adding to my position on dips and trading around a core--right through Q3 and Q4.

Sentiment: Strong Buy

Good point mikey--in fact, there hasn't been a reasoned and sustained short attack for a few months--just awful clatter.

Even a couple of those sensible shorts you tangoed with in this forum are gone.

Sentiment: Strong Buy

PJ--
Believe you may be too cynical here. Even if Bailey's "offhand 5%" is "off" by a wide margin, he now stated the bulk of the decline in Q1 scripts was due to NDC changes. That's good enough for me. Wish he would have hinted at a similar percentage in Q4 cc and stated a similar percentage in Q1 cc. I don't appreciate his communication style very much, but this guy has no track as a hypester.

At this point, I am writing this off to poor communication on Bailey's part--now corrected, even if offhandedly. Keeping an eyebrow raised for sure--if May and June script levels don't reasonably track with the April numbers they touted--that would be reason to reevaluate my substantial position.

Sentiment: Strong Buy

PJ--
Can't and wouldn't speak for mikey--but you have it right where I am concerned.

After considerable research, I did come to the conclusion that the new reimbursement center was a significant factor in the disappointing Q1 results--which really called QCOR into question in my mind, as an operator--especially since there was precious little mention of this disruption in the Q4 report--which was delivered 2/3 of the way through Q1.

This is what QCOR said in the Q1 press release: "Net sales in 2013 were negatively impacted by the effects of several transitional events, including distribution channel disruptions associated with implementing the Medicaid rebate change, the timing of Acthar orders..., and the introduction of a new reimbursement center."

If this paragraph had been written differently and QCOR had blamed 95% of the disappointing Q1 on NDC code changes, I would have reached a different conclusion and written off Q1 as an aberration. My life experience is that these code changes cause disruption, but nowhere near what we saw in Q1. Apparently, QCOR's case is different.

By the way and related, my projections for Q1 were also way off (lots of company in that boat, but still...). My projections were based on prescription information which had previously translated to paid prescription and shipped vial projections--but not in Q1. I expected the share price to nosedive after Q1, even with the April guidance, which I found strange. Nope.

As stated, I sold the bulk of my position and missed the run up from mid-30s into low 40s. My stated reason was lack of clarity on Q1. About half that position has been re-established in the past few days, after the latest QCOR presentation added a layer of clarity in my mind. I agree with mikey that some clouds are gone and the QCOR future looks pretty sunny.

On any basis, your conclusion is correct and proven here: "...take with a grain of salt what anyone here says..."

Sentiment: Strong Buy

Great info as always mikey. I was waiting for at least a bit of clarity on the reimbursement center.
Now loaded back to half my original position and laddered in down to $35.

Sentiment: Strong Buy

This board may want to know that maxdad is the former director of healthcare M&A at GS. I have followed his analysis in other forums--public and private. He is a consummate professional, generously shares his knowledge, and tells it like he sees it.

Sentiment: Strong Buy

YBDC--
You're welcome, and will say it again for the newbies. QCOR has very few reimbursement problems from insurers. Aetna continues to be a reckless outlier. Ignore the short and assorted naysayers when they start this mantra again next week.

Any problems QCOR may have are the result of their internal transition, which we believe to be short term in nature.

Sentiment: Strong Buy

Attaboy mclim.

Sentiment: Strong Buy

Lori--
Probably too soon based on my experience. Never seen one of these settle out in less than 12-18 months.

Sentiment: Strong Buy