FDA will wait for outcomes data regardless and likely review both at same time. These biomarker studies are overhyped for day traders. REGN earnings will drive to all-time high, that's real money not fantasy.
A cultural insult to insinuate they could not afford and need to beg for money. Roche is more a bank than a biotech. .
Roy Vagelos was the creative genius (ala Steve Jobs) who made Merck into the envy of the pharmaceutical world and Regeneron into the best biotech since Amgen. It would be a great strategic fit for Biogen to attempt a tax-free stock acquisition before the non-compete clause with Sanofi expires and Sanofi ruins the company. Otherwise a 3:1 stock split would be nice.
If there is any justice, a court will put a hold on the takeover for the blatant conflicts of interest and gross lack of fiduciary responsibility at every turn; You may not see that 125 for a while. The drumbeat of this case gets louder and louder. I will be glad to get back if the stock falls to 90.
Exactly and also other insiders made an excess amount of money that will be the subject of litigation. My reading of the SEC filing is that significant liability exists due to data shared with Amgen that was not shared with the other bidders, who dropped out for the same reason after the ill-advised quarterly announcement of the trial delay. Also, the investment company in charge of selling was pushing unabashedly for a quick sale and did not uphold an unbiased view to obtain the best price and stockholder value thru a combined entiity. My guess is the merger would have been with Biogen who has been looking to divest its oncology business for some time.
I now guess competing bids of 140 in cash by Amgen and 130 cash + 20 CSR with AZN; NVS and BMS, Merck and Pfizer are dark horses at 150 cash. Kyprolis has an established mechanism of action like Velcade and it is just a matter of the trial size and length. Nerve sparing is a slam dunk. The bias CV and renal story raised by Reuters is old news and the same problem for Velcade just benefit vs risk. You cannot manage the 30% nerve damage with Velcade. Nexavar in breast ca for Europe is also not factored and will be a major cash cow. The long-term cash flow with expanded Stivarga labeling with no COG and ramping Nexavar sales alone justify the price to ensure breaking even at worst with little risk. There is plenty of headcount and overhead for slashing to squeeze out additional savings to meet earnings expectations as needed, and significant Onxx cash on-hand. I hope AZN takes the plunge instead of say merging and consolidating with BMS and clashing cultures.
The way in which Cole was exasperated in referring to the BOD in having to make a decision it seemed that one offer was for cash (Amgen) and another potential offer included CRV. AZN has a history of the latter while Amgen's offer is purely based on certain assumptions. There does seem to be a bit of stalling in that the EU companies may have a leg up in trolling for the data. AZN is the most desperate and the most likely to come out on top IMO.
Other than Amgen's initial bid I think there has been a lot of talking and bluffing so not to play into the game. Didn't we hear this news 2 weeks ago too. How many times are the same companies going to drop out. There has to be a better way. Just put your highest price and breakup fee on a sheet of paper for the ONXX BOD to signoff in 24hr and that's it. No Reuters and Bloomberg BS. WSJ or FT would not be used and demean themselves.
The number of new clinics and new patients on retreatment likely will mean the acceleration of growth but not by next week. Clearly, the expansion into Europe, emerging data, and a cleaner safety profile will drive growth in the long-run but this perspective is best appreciated by European pharma and not US analysts considering what have you done for me lately. Moreover, pure EU oncology pharma could derive the best synergies. I still see the Pfizer compound as the Lipitor of oncology products and wonder if there is a Pfizer concern that Amgen could pull a Bayer to develop an unprotected derivatives. Pfizer would have no reason to bid otherwise. It is unfortunate that the timing of acquisition is working against Onxx but the value is there and long-term revenue streams are desirable and can be monetized in present for to offset a higher price. I would be shocked if AZN does not bid in spite of the recent downgrades.
I agree that with others likely matching in discussions but not formally bidding against each other, it is time for someone to make an aggressive offer with the condition of a 24hr lockout to negotiate and breakup fee to close the deal. This is a unique asset of multiple mature drugs in development, and the last of the low hanging fruit for a while.
Maybe Pfizer is worried about protecting its patent estate in its Onxx collaboration. It already hoodwinked for minimal royalties what will be the largest oncology product in history. No other reason for PFE to be bidding at these levels. If a concern 200 is possible. Moreover, Amgen has the best patent attorneys in all of biotech and pharma and who knows if Roche is lurking in the background with a head fake for public consumption. Much like A-Rod and MLB, just get it over with already. ..please.
In my uneducated opinion, it seems with multiple bidders that 150 won't do it. The final bid has to be a knock-out so my guess is 160 and say good-bye to the sales, marketing, etc. Hope the company has discussed the exit package especially for the long-timers. It sucks.
My interpretation of new quote that the bidding "got away" from the buyers was that after the initial bid of 120 the bidding talk got too high for some , so makes me think we are talking about 150. Also, the companies on the sideline are not stupid to play the bankers game and bid against each other, and would rather wait for the second round to close a deal. What we are seeing today is the typical seemingly coordinated influence of MM, hedge funds and timely news release to screw the people who own options at options expiration. The SEC should look at that too
In exchange for EU rights for PC, worldwide 95% royalties for indications other than PC, and co-promotion in the US, NVS should provide 5M upfront, manufacture at least 1/3 to 1/2 US Provenge, and pay full development costs. Keep dreaming.