I think you go with the insiders here....Last week we had an insider buy almost 1 1/2 times yesterday's total volume!!!
Also you don't see a lot of insider buying on the open markets anymore....So when you do see insider buying on the open market with one's own money that has to be the trump card....A 3rd or 4th insider buy will just confirm the obvious....Time will tell.
Probably time to move up the range here,,,Looks like the current range has cleaned out the available shares....Also with insiders recently buying shares in this range I don't believe we will see much supply available....Just my opinion.
On a side note we have the net neutrality ruling coming tomorrow that could make for some interesting trading in many telecom, media and technology companies.
I only post on Sirius once in a while but yeah...this was actually fairly easy one to predict...I thought we would get to $4 by the end of the year...I said that back in the summer and then reaffirmed that on September 24...So I'll be about a month and half off...Close enough....Really once we broke through $3.66 that was the key to moving into a new trading range.
Actually that was supposed to read that if a $5 million buyback was going to stand in the way then they should not even stay in business....I think they need to look big picture here.
Also as far as sale of the company, I do not mean like right now, this week, this month....What I mean is that I expect the business to recover this year as spending comes back in. But I would also like to see a stock buyback put in place as the recovery happens...and then within the year work toward consolidation to become part of a bigger operation.....Especially right now as they have the right product mix and are well positioned.
Already over the last month now we have seen Commscope and TE Connectivity get together for some of TE's operations...and two good names in DAS...Also you now have ExteNet putting itself up for sale over the last few weeks.
Look when you give a dollar to somebody you have two types of people in this world...Those that will want to try and save a dime...and those that will figure a way out to grow that dollar...Typically in the long run the people that figure out how to grow that dollar do much better in the long run....Westell needs to decide whether they want to save 10 cents...or make the dollar grow into something more.
Also if say a $5 million dollar buyback is going to stand in the way of longer term success then they have reason to stay in business.
Westell has good products in the hottest sector of telecom...But I think they need to understand that they are going to need to part of something bigger and have the scale and be able to deliver it.
Also Again..They should have got the memo the other day with Commscope, TE deal....Consolidation is coming in DAS...whether they like it or not....I agree with the no further purchases by Westell. They have done a good job on their end. It is now time for them to be on the other side of M&A.
As simple as I can say it as CEO you are judged on the performance of your stock price...Obviously that has not worked out.
Also the inability to get a new buyback in place was something he needed to do.
with that said, I am not sure much has changed...The company needs to continue what it is doing, put a buyback in place and maybe as a pure play telecom get itself aligned for potential consolidation in the DAS industry....I do agree with more focus on on international....DAS is a major initiative world wide and will continue to grow.
Also of note is that the tower players Crown Castle, American Tower and SBA are all moving more aggressively into the DAS area...Obviously good news for a company like Westell who is also moving deeper into DAS.
Yes I believe they have bought good technology....Intelligent site management, TMA's and DAS are all very good areas to be in...Especially in DAS....I cannot say enough positive things about DAS.
Everything in DAS is about getting the capacity off of the macro network and giving the customer a better in building experience. Really of the two the bigger benefit is to the carriers where they have no choice. Spectrum is a limited resource and DAS provides the carriers the ability to be more efficient in deploying that spectrum.
Also you heard Gilbert say: "frankly we’ve acquired the stuff we wanted to acquire relatively to our stated wireless strategy"...I agree with that too...So they have acquired the "stuff" they want...I would also say that others may be interested in acquiring what Westell has acquired...Especially since Westell has already taken care of most of the back end work....Really some of the bigger boys can really just write a check at this point.
As for their day to day, I think they just need to keep moving forward with what they are doing...put a small buyback place and understand that consolidation is a very real possibility in their maybe not so distant future....Just my opinion.
Did I miss that?...Sorry..Trying to do much at once.....Anyway they should be OK....And with that product mix they have they are very possibly going to become a target for the DAS players...I think that Commscope TE Connectivity deal was a something to take note of...Two very good names in DAS.
Also again, get a small buyback in place....Especially if M@A may be in your future.
Good to see that tower players may be coming around especially American Tower....The carriers tend to be a bit further behind with their budgets when starting a new year....and it sounds like they are already in the neighborhood of revenue for last quarter.
Also did I hear guidance of $25-$27 million?....I'll take $24 to $25 million....and so that also puts them on my target run rate of about $100 million which I think is a measurable, obtainable goal.....Clearly things are getting better.
Also I completely agree with their focus on DAS....DAS and small cell are the two hottest buzz words in telecom right now...quite simply. This is where the industry is going.
As for the buyback...They have to out one in place..5 to 10 million...even if they do not execute in full...That is a no brainer. Especially if you believe in the business.
Look here is the blueprint...This is likely the bottom...Spending is coming back....As I mentioned last week, while the industry recovers and spending is returning they need to set a measurable , obtainable goal of like $100 million and be profitable....This should be very reachable.
Also they should also have a small buyback in place as the recovery in spending happens...And then again they need to look toward consolidation which is going to happen whether they like it or not....Cash in a deal will only be rewarded dollar for dollar.
I have been mentioning consolidation for a few months now....I would think they got the memo on the Commscope TE Connectivity deal the other day....Scale is going to be very important going forward. Carriers want one stop solutions and the scale with which to deliver it.
Yeah...A bit lower than I expected. I thought they would be in the $16-$17 million range,,,,but the wireless industry basically went into complete hibernation from about pre Thanksgiving on through the ned of the year...I talked to many who basically had the month of December off.
With that said there is a major pickup under way right now with March expected to be very busy...especially in the DAS and small cell area.
Also as I have mentioned before It is probably time for Westell as a pure play telco to start looking for consolidation partners going forward as the DAS industry consolidates...and the last thing I want to see is Westell make another purchase....While I still like the purchases they made I think that window has now closed going forward.
Just a matter of time till the sellers run out of shares....We are heading to the $4 plus area...Really thought we had a chance to be there for the end of year....Break through $3.66 and it is off to the races.
Agreed...Of course I think he needs to first worry about $2 bucks before we talk about $4...Also a buyback initiated in the $2 to $2.50 range would have likely headed off the move to current levels.
I guess we will get so more clarity next week.
Bob...I was strictly talking about FY2015....On the 2/4/14 report which looks like it was up to the date of 1/31/14 they were still talking about:........."Achieve $200M revenue run rate by the end of FY15."
I thought that was maybe a bit too aggressive and I agree that $150M would have been great...and that anything over would have been a bonus.
As for the stock price I was on the mark for the most part saying I thought that the $4.70 area may be a top, and that maybe if we caught momentum we could break $5 or higher...That didn't happen.
Also I think Gilbert really needs some good news on the call....Otherwise as a pure play it is probably time to really consider moving the company and look toward consolidation...I think the DAS industry is likely going to consolidate this year and carriers are looking for turnkey solutions where size and scale are going to matter.
They have done a good job of consolidating into a pure telco play. It may be time for that consolidation to move up the ladder and into some deeper pockets.
On a side note we had some consolidation the other day with Commscope agreeing to buy the broadband network solutions (BNS) business unit of TE Connectivity for $3 billion.
I think they just need to get back to basics and set reasonable, obtainable goals and be profitable....All that talk about a $200 million run rate was just way too optimistic...and really I don't think many of us really believed it anyway.
But I think it starts with being realistic....Personally I think set a goal of $100 million run rate and be profitable and they will be rewarded...In the end it always gets back to earnings....A little buyback sure wouldn't hurt either.
Well I guess we will see....I do think as soon as you mention you want to go private the price will spike.....I worked for a company years ago that was public at one point and then went private...As the owner told me...It was a #$%$" to get those shares back.....They paid a hefty price and he said they would never go public again...and they have not.
Also things are picking up. Here are a couple of quotes from IBD on Friday about Crown Castle:
"Crown Castle is seeing strong activity from all four carriers and the small cell business is providing upside," said Cowen analyst Colby Synesael in a report.
"The secular tail wind of rapidly growing wireless data consumption will lead to the need to make wireless networks increasingly dense, which in turn leads to more sites," wrote Gregory Miller, an analyst at Canaccord Genuity, in a research note.
Also for what it is worth IBD still has a "B" rating for Accum/ Distribute...even at $1.22...Probably because we have dropped on such low volume.
I think Google getting more involved in wireless has to be very good news to equipment vendors like Westell....Basically Google just call out the whole wireless industry and said that they are going to have to increase their spending....and probably rather significantly......and the area that the spending will occur is the DAS and small cell area.
Also we always talk about the big 2, "the duopoly" in telecom....but it may surprise many here that Google is actually bigger than both VZ and T together....especially when you add in the cash and debt....So when they make a push like this it is a big deal.
And then watch out for Apple, ESPN, Amazon....All these companies have a vested interest in seeing network speeds pickup.
You also have to think if Google is now getting into the game then it is likely just a matter of time until we hear something from Apple...They also have very good technology that right now is far ahead of the networks that it is being put on.
What is interesting is that 10-15 years ago the networks were actually way ahead of the network devices which where usually bigger, heavier and with monochrome display...and with just numbers, no letters.
Now we re at the point where the phones have actually far surpassed what the networks can handle and in many places cannot deliver.
On a side note Verizon has upped it's capex a bit to the $17.5-$18 billion...and we are only in January.