Well as I have been saying for the last couple of months the technicals just didn't seem to warrant where the stock was....Technically I think we should over $3 right now.
Also I would not be surprised if a company like Cove Street continues to build it's position.
I also believe the stock to be in short supply....We will see.
As the say in blackjack it is all about the count...Right now I get the feeling that the count is in Westell's favor.
It just has the look like it is ready to move again...As I say from time to time the stock has a look like it is being "managed.".....Even today with 10 minutes left looked like there was an effort to get the close under $1.84, but it looked like somebody came in at the end and said no to that....we will see.
But over 10% of the class of A shares...or about 12.2%...I would not be surprised to see them continue adding here....As I said the other day some of the math was not adding up...It seems to be starting to now.....Share supply has to be very tight as we saw yesterday with volume of only 87,000.
Well also this could be the start of what I was saying last month where you may have a very large holders that start leaning heavily on the company regardless of the B shares...It would not surprise me to see a couple of companies take some very large positions here and start forcing the company in directions they want it to go.
I think what is clear is that somebody is buying up everything around $1.70...Looks like that was Cove...and I would not be surprised if they took that position even higher...Minimal downside at this point with potential large upside.
On a side note Gilbert may want to contact some of the market makers here and find out what is going on with his stock.
Just filed this morning but a new 13G, their 3rd in about a month is out from them showing ownership of 5,632,710....A 12.2% ownership....Really not sure what to believe at this point.
Yes I understand we saw selling after earnings....I am questioning the march down from $3.99 on April 2nd to $2.45 on June 30th.....I guess we are to assume that these were just a bunch of individual investors that brought the stock down.
Obviously after 20 plus years investing I have seen a few strange things...After all if everything was always priced rationally and in balance at all times we wouldn't need a market would we.
In my opinion there does appear to be an effort to make us all believe the stock is only worth $1.70 right now.
On a side note check out the money flow over the last year...We closed at $3.01 8/15/13...We are at a plus 4 million as of today....with a close of $1.71.
This is even more interesting...On 12/31/14 we closed the year at $4.05 with 81 institutions holding 27,499,085 shares.
Now we have added 7 more institutions, now at 88 holding 27,489,944...a drop of 9,411 shares from 12/31/14.... shares with a stock that closed at $2.45 on 6/30/14....Also Mr. Hoeft filed a 13A on 1/30/14 showing he still owned 2,484,904.
So again...Where are all these shares coming from that are driving the shares price down??????
Well I think the bigger picture here is that we have a stock that has no business being down in the $1.70's and now we got some math that in my view kind of confirms it....The move from April 2 at $3.99 to the close on June 30th at $2.45 just doesn't add up.
Institutions are still relatively strong, Mr. Hoeft still seems to have a good size position, management still hold about 1.6 million shares from their recent filing..This leads me to believe that the shares are still in tight supply and that the stock could move up significantly....Especially if we get some institutional lean on it...We will see.
Also don't forget that Cove Street actually increased their position to 3,695,847 from their July 21 filing.
Also year over year on balance volume as of yesterday still shows we should be in the $3 range.
I guess the question is....where are all these shares coming from that are driving down the stock????...It does not appear to be the institutions, or the shorts.
We'll have to see if any corrections are made from NASDAQ or get additional 13 filings...but I guess we are to believe that most of the move down was on the individual investor?
We will have to see what the final numbers are but there are some questions that do not seem to make sense.
Right now down 1,361,811 shares...With a high in the quarter of $3.99 on April 2nd and a low of $2.21 on JUne 25th.
Shorts went up the quarter...but then again they covered in July right???
Basically...not adding up.
Here are some excepts from a recent article in Wireless Week from Ben Munson.
Just look at some of these projection for speed....These are targets for the end of 2015 early 2016:
Meanwhile, the carrier has been busy with its LTE build. Carter didn’t comment on when 30x30 MHz and 40x40 MHz wideband LTE deployments might pop up but did say T-Mobile plans to have 20x20 MHz LTE covering all the major metropolitan areas.
Also you can see here that CDMA will start to shut down in favor of LTE:
Carter also provided an update on the MetroPCS network migration, saying that the prepaid carrier’s CDMA network in Philadelphia will be the next to be shut down and that the entire CDMA shutdown should be complete by end of 2015.
Some very big news happening as we move forward...Westell is well position to capitalize on this.
As I have mentioned before they do seem to have an issue realizing that they are a public company.
Watching the tape a bit closer today...There does appear to be an effort to keep the stock down today..Even when there are what look like buys they follow those trades up with 100 share downticks....Also volume is drying up here...That tends to signal the end of a move up or down.
As for Gilbert he is not very good at promoting his company...I do a better job of promoting the company than he does.....Maybe I should submit a bill to him.
On a side note I still do not see Westell as having a significant profile in the social media area....I am connected to some fairly big names in telecom. I do not see any Westell people connected to the same people I am connect to.
It also concerns me when they promote themselves a DAS leader but many don't even know they are in the business right now.
Looks like DAS interest is picking up...This was from an article in RCR last week.
“We already had a DAS competency, but it will enhance that, and our scale and capabilities, with the additions that we’re bringing on,” said BlueStream’s Desi O’Grady, VP for broadband wireless and wireline network sales. O’Grady said that BlueStream is likely to make further investments in DAS.
“It’s a strategic business for us,” he said. “We continue to grow it and grow our business but also our presence in that space and you’ll probably continue to see us invest in that.”
May be time for a higher valuation.
Interesting article in Wireless Week last week about how Verizon is trying to to manage capacity on their LTE network.
Again the bottom line here: carriers are going to have to continue to spend on their networks..There is really now way around it...DAS and small cell will become a bigger part in an effort to get capacity off the macro networks.
Of interest is the on balance volume...I like to look at yearly OBV, not too short and not too long and even after all this damage we are still a plus 753,191...with a trading close at $2.86 a year ago.
And yes this does look very cheap...but again Gilbert cannot let his stock get taken out like this...with momentum....But also remember momentum works both ways.
This should be good news for companies like Westell......I think many including myself thought this deal was likely going to get done...Instead it sure looks like some of these companies are going to have to increase cap ex going forward.
Yes...Somehow Sprint was going to save money by having Ericsson maintain their network....The problem, Ericsson also needed to make money and they found a way....Get rid of the talent.....And again this was very top end talent.
Much of that talent ended up at Sprint's top competitors....Really in the end just how stupid can you be?????....They earned this...and yes how can you build a new network when you can't even take care your existing one...Sorry to be so harsh.
Yeah...you get what you pay for...And with the outsourcing I watched over the last 4 years a lot of talent...and I mean top end talent get pushed out the door...Guess where they ended up....That shouldn't be too hard to figure out....I am not sure they will ever be able to replace it without paying some big bucks.
Oh well bed time...Tomorrow could be an interesting day in telecom.
I no longer hold any Sprint stock but you do remember the October 7, 2011 conference in New York when there was open laughter in the room from the analyst community right????...I think they had it right that day....and again his removal was overdue even at that point.
With that said I was hoping for a Sprint T-Mobile deal...I think it would have been good for the whole industry....I guess you can't hide behind anti-trust forever which is what was keeping Sprint around anyway.....Funny isn't it when Sprint needs protection the most they get pushed over the cliff by regulators.
Again I was in favor of a Sprint, T-Mobile deal...Not sure where they go from here.