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Sirius XM Holdings Inc. Message Board

philip_kozlowski 39 posts  |  Last Activity: 13 hours ago Member since: Sep 20, 2012
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  • There are too many reasons to hope against any major uptick in SIRI's stock price.
    I doubt management wants to paint too rosy a picture of SIRI's earnings so I'm pessimistic about an upside earnings surprise July 29th As long as they are buying back stock and thinking of another offer to take over SIRI, it's to Malone's advantage to keep the price down. He's a long-term guy and will make his fortune. I just hope he allows us a modest profit as long-term investors.

  • philip_kozlowski by philip_kozlowski Jul 23, 2014 8:36 AM Flag

    It's in SIRI's best interests to control the price rise while they're buying back stock. It helps shareholders because the lower the price, the more shares taken off the market and higher earnings per share.
    Buffett says people feel they need to make many investment decisions to become financially secure but that's wrong - they only need to make 2 or 3. SIRI could be the one to make you secure.

  • philip_kozlowski by philip_kozlowski Jul 20, 2014 10:45 AM Flag

    If Malone has been approached to sell SIRI, wouldn't it be better to increase share price even if it increases debt? Why not take advantage of the low interest rates now to maximize borrowings? SIRI got into it's mess years ago by not borrowing in advance of the disappearance of financing options in 2008-2009.
    I don't see how maximizing leverage hurts them in marketing SIRI to a well-heeled buyer but reducing shares to increase PPS helps investors.

  • Not 85%, .85% (less than 1%) to 318M fewer days to cover given larger volume lately, 8 days to 5.75 days.

  • If short interest is a 'good' signal for traders, SIRI's climb the past month is a good indicator of future price growth. Overall market short interest is declining which has been interpreted as a sign the market is due for a correction. SIRI's numbers are due today at 4:00 for the June 30th period.

  • While Dish has 14 million TV subscribers, its value is now basically tied to spectrum, or wireless real estate, that it has acquired since 2008. The spectrum remains undeveloped, but it could ultimately be used for Dish's own wireless network or, more likely, to bolster someone else's. Bullish analysts think the spectrum alone could be worth $25 billion, after taxes, if sold. With a stock-market value of just $30 billion, investors are giving Dish short shrift for its satellite-TV business, which is highly profitable, even if slow-growing. As investors get a better handle on the spectrum's worth, Dish shares could rise 20%. The stock has shown surprising resilience since the company was left out of the merger parade. It closed the week at $66.37, a 52-week high.

    THE NEXT LEG UP could come in November, when the Federal Communications Commission holds its largest spectrum auction since 2008. "Just from a stock perspective, you don't have to have a view on what Dish is ultimately going to do with the spectrum," says Jason Bazinet, who covers the media, cable, and satellite sector for Citigroup. "The thesis is that the auction itself will be a positive catalyst for the stock. You just have to look forward to November." Bazinet recently upgraded Dish to Buy with a price target of $79.

  • If FCC approves this merger, SIRI's satellites and spectrum will be a valuable commodity.
    On top of everything, it's got a great business model too - great cash flow and content.
    Excellent prospects...

  • philip_kozlowski by philip_kozlowski Jun 24, 2014 4:23 PM Flag

    Now 315M shares (6/13/2014)

  • Hedging.
    Last year when SIRI was hitting new highs, short interest was over 300M shares.
    people may know that something is going on with SIRI but they just can't commit to buying shares without a downside hedge. CBHers will be taken out Dec 1st....big players are looking for ways to deliver streaming video to an insatiable market. SIRI has some patents that could be very valuable in 2016 and beyond. It has a monopoly and spectrum. It has a strong business model connected to a market with 70M+ and growing cars with SatRadio. Americans LOVE their cars and need to have access to the internet at all times.
    I think 2014 could be the year SIRI fans have been waiting for 10 years. Let's see.....

  • Curious that short interest is going up after the last CBH interest payment.

  • The last time SIRI's short interest was at this level (300M+), SIRI's shares were climbing from the high $3's to $4.15. Is that so bad?

  • The report forecasts that, by 2018, online connected machines will take over televisions as the fastest growing connected devices, making up over 46 percent of Internet traffic, from the current 25 percent.

    SIRI announced it can provide video streaming to cars.....Does this point to increasing value of SIRI to Google, Facebook, other major players?

  • philip_kozlowski philip_kozlowski Jun 5, 2014 3:22 PM Flag

    what is ARPU for Netflix? maybe that's a better metric

  • it's a question of whether you want to do without it. Once you get used to SIRI, $15/month is a pittance to the entertainment value. The average commute time in America is 1 hour each way....2 hours/day. Why would you want to save $15 and lose access to quality programming for 40 hours a month? Traffic reports will be available soon along with streaming video (hopefully for passengers). A few years ago, I'm sure people felt it was a luxury to have access to internet anytime, anywhere. Now a large percentage of our population can't live without it. The same for SIRI and its content and soon, SIRI will be delivering other valuable streaming services independently or as a part of an emerging information provider. Things are looking good....

  • philip_kozlowski philip_kozlowski Jun 5, 2014 10:08 AM Flag

    Have you done similar calculations with Netflix, Priceline and Wal-Mart? What number are you looking for to determine 'healthy investment'?

  • philip_kozlowski by philip_kozlowski Jun 3, 2014 12:21 PM Flag

    From David Frear's appearance today at the BoA Merrill Lynch Global Telecom Conference:
    It's hard to imagine video on the car right now, but I do believe that self driving cars are coming and it may take a while. There is absolutely no reason why our platform can't be used for mobile video. We are in fact specifically designed to deliver sort of 5 to 10 megabits of data to a moving vehicle, no matter where it is in the United States that can be audio, it can be data, it can be video, it doesn’t really matter.

  • We can dream....

  • The Wall Street Journal reports that Google is planning to spend more than $1 billion on satellites that will offer internet access worldwide from space. The publication's sources say that Google will begin with 180 small satellites that will orbit the Earth at a lower altitude than most other craft, before possibly expanding the fleet in the future.

    Google has been hiring new staff from satellite companies in an effort to get its space internet scheme off the ground. The project is reportedly being run by Greg Wyler, who founded satellite startup O3b Networks. O3b, in whom Google has invested, has been experimenting with 1,500-pound satellites, but people familiar with the project say the devices Google intends to use will weigh less than 250 pounds. The WSJ's sources say the costs for the venture could top $3 billion as Google makes tweaks to the network and revises the number of satellites it needs to offer internet in unconnected parts of the world.

    THE 180 SATELLITES WILL REPORTEDLY WEIGH LESS THAN 250 POUNDS EACH

    A number of tech companies are exploring ways for it to increase broadband coverage to parts of the planet that lack internet infrastructure. Google's Project Loon uses balloons to act as high-altitude ISPs, and in April, it acquired Titan Aerospace, a company building solar-powered drones that can beam internet signals from the sky. Facebook said it was experimenting with a similar method in March, confirming that it was building a squadron of drones that could fly autonomously at 65,000 feet for months at a time using solar cells.

    FACEBOOK ALSO WANTS TO OFFER INTERNET FROM THE SKIES

    Google's reported plans to roll out a fleet of satellites likely won't make its efforts with drones or balloons obsolete. Tim Farrar, a consultant who worked for a company that tried to offer satellite-based internet access in the 1990s before its $9 billion project was halted, told the WSJ that the technologies complemented each other, and that drones and satellite

  • SIRI's content is half talk and sports and half music. Howard Stern, Oprah, MLB, NBA, NHL, World Cup....
    SIRI's content is king and can't be replicated! (although NPR is very mighty....who could go a day without
    Click and Clack, All Things Considered, A Prairie Home Companion...

  • philip_kozlowski by philip_kozlowski May 31, 2014 11:48 PM Flag

    The most successful investors have a knack or vision to see not what's here now, but what the future will be.
    The Clippers were valued at $500M by Forbes until Steve Ballmer bid $2B for it. Why? The NBA has huge potential in the global market.
    SIRI has tremendous potential as well - spectrum, satellites and possibly a technology that will enable broadband delivery to the world. Infrastructure is very expensive - sure you get much higher speeds with Google network, but SIRI can provide global reach at a fraction of the cost.
    Malone is no dummy - there's no rush to allow SIRI stock price to climb rapidly.
    I think this is a sleeper investment - hang on no matter what! The future will be very friendly to SIRI investors.

SIRI
3.44-0.01(-0.29%)Jul 25 4:00 PMEDT

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