Duke feels SIRI's future relies on profit margin from subs. That's like saying Amazon plans to rule the planet by selling books or Netflix by renting DVD's.
It's all about connectivity - and SIRI has the satellites, spectrum and technology to appeal to the big players. The introduction of the iPhone6, the market for people who need access to 4G internet is exploding. SIRI has the advantage of its satellites in this regard, along with an installed customer base of 26M and climbing. Those who don't buy SIRI for its current content might be interested in faster download speeds for people in their cars.
As they say in archery, don't shoot where the target is now, shoot for where the target will be. SIRI is positioning itself to be a very attractive takeover target for Verizon, AT&T, Google, Amazon, Microsoft and now, possibly Alibaba.
I'm putting my money on SIRI.
Wait until Bobby Vinton gets a channel....$10/share easy.
Samsung, Apple, Verizon, Cable companies, Google, Amazon, AT&T.....who wouldn't be interested in a company that has
a) satellite radio monopoly b) spectrum c) exclusive content, especially sports d) demonstrated subscriber business model with built-in supply of new trails with every car purchase e) growing number of cars with satellite radios
f) Hall of Fame investor in charge (Malone)
g) declining number of outstanding shares
h) possible technology to allow utilization of spectrum for internet connectivity
Very intriguing investment opportunity.....
the Comcast/TWC deal breaks down due to complaints raised by Netflix about a lack of net neutrality.
IF that happens, Malone may be tempted to sell SIRI to raise money for another takeover bid of Time Warner.
SIRI is a valuable asset he could monetize towards his dream of consolidating the cable industry.
It could happen!
"Have fun storming the castle!"
Price action should go up....
Big players want in but only at their price. Volume is 35m shares today, 1/2 buys, 1/2 sells. If you had a huge position, you could sacrifice selling 20-25M shares hoping the price drops where you can buy 50M shares at a discount. KEEP IN MIND that Liberty is NOT selling its stake - as the shares outstanding go down with buybacks, it's ownership % keeps going up. It's now 57%+.
Put you faith in the smart money - let them play their games in the short run because in the long run, we all benefit. As Meyer said - this is a march, not a sprint. (A really, really long march - longer and more painful than the Bataan Death March).
I'm curious to see action tomorrow on SIRI....they're only allowed to buy-back stock at a certain level each month so tomorrow should see more action on the buy side.
Sirius bought back 6% of shares outstanding this quarter, and 14% since the buyback commenced last year. Liberty Media ( LMCA ) now owns 55.7% as it is not tendering any Sirius stock. The remaining repurchase authorization stands at about $1.7 billion. We are estimating that $1.8 billion could be bought in the second half, as Sirius increased its leverage to four times gross Ebitda from 3.5 times. We are forecasting that the share count drops to 5.65 billion by year-end from the current 6.0 billion and 6.2 billion at the beginning of the year. Sirius also bought 35 million shares post quarter (up to July 25) for $120 million, about $3.43 per share.
There are too many reasons to hope against any major uptick in SIRI's stock price.
I doubt management wants to paint too rosy a picture of SIRI's earnings so I'm pessimistic about an upside earnings surprise July 29th As long as they are buying back stock and thinking of another offer to take over SIRI, it's to Malone's advantage to keep the price down. He's a long-term guy and will make his fortune. I just hope he allows us a modest profit as long-term investors.
It's in SIRI's best interests to control the price rise while they're buying back stock. It helps shareholders because the lower the price, the more shares taken off the market and higher earnings per share.
Buffett says people feel they need to make many investment decisions to become financially secure but that's wrong - they only need to make 2 or 3. SIRI could be the one to make you secure.
If Malone has been approached to sell SIRI, wouldn't it be better to increase share price even if it increases debt? Why not take advantage of the low interest rates now to maximize borrowings? SIRI got into it's mess years ago by not borrowing in advance of the disappearance of financing options in 2008-2009.
I don't see how maximizing leverage hurts them in marketing SIRI to a well-heeled buyer but reducing shares to increase PPS helps investors.
Not 85%, .85% (less than 1%) to 318M fewer days to cover given larger volume lately, 8 days to 5.75 days.
If short interest is a 'good' signal for traders, SIRI's climb the past month is a good indicator of future price growth. Overall market short interest is declining which has been interpreted as a sign the market is due for a correction. SIRI's numbers are due today at 4:00 for the June 30th period.
While Dish has 14 million TV subscribers, its value is now basically tied to spectrum, or wireless real estate, that it has acquired since 2008. The spectrum remains undeveloped, but it could ultimately be used for Dish's own wireless network or, more likely, to bolster someone else's. Bullish analysts think the spectrum alone could be worth $25 billion, after taxes, if sold. With a stock-market value of just $30 billion, investors are giving Dish short shrift for its satellite-TV business, which is highly profitable, even if slow-growing. As investors get a better handle on the spectrum's worth, Dish shares could rise 20%. The stock has shown surprising resilience since the company was left out of the merger parade. It closed the week at $66.37, a 52-week high.
THE NEXT LEG UP could come in November, when the Federal Communications Commission holds its largest spectrum auction since 2008. "Just from a stock perspective, you don't have to have a view on what Dish is ultimately going to do with the spectrum," says Jason Bazinet, who covers the media, cable, and satellite sector for Citigroup. "The thesis is that the auction itself will be a positive catalyst for the stock. You just have to look forward to November." Bazinet recently upgraded Dish to Buy with a price target of $79.
If FCC approves this merger, SIRI's satellites and spectrum will be a valuable commodity.
On top of everything, it's got a great business model too - great cash flow and content.