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Amazon.com, Inc. Message Board

philtmcnasty8 26 posts  |  Last Activity: Feb 26, 2016 3:21 PM Member since: Mar 27, 2004
  • philtmcnasty8 by philtmcnasty8 Feb 26, 2016 3:21 PM Flag

    Wow, the ambulance chasers are really lining up against this company. Is that normal? Seems like a new one every day. Don't recall seeing that many line up before.

  • philtmcnasty8 by philtmcnasty8 Feb 26, 2016 1:57 PM Flag

    I see Thornton picked up $4.4M worth of shares in the open market yesterday. Not a bad vote of confidence

  • Reply to

    Offering

    by handinthefield Feb 23, 2016 10:04 AM
    philtmcnasty8 philtmcnasty8 Feb 23, 2016 10:17 AM Flag

    In mid-September they issued $40M worth of shares at $5.20. That was when gold price was around $1,100, GDX was $13-$14 and Brucejack estimated costs of construction were $100M higher. Today they price shares at $4.58??? I don't get it.

  • Reply to

    Oversold?

    by philtmcnasty8 Feb 18, 2016 3:37 PM
    philtmcnasty8 philtmcnasty8 Feb 19, 2016 12:53 PM Flag

    I note that in the CC they mentioned Grey Fox could be back on the table at gold $1250 - not too far off.

  • Reply to

    Oversold?

    by philtmcnasty8 Feb 18, 2016 3:37 PM
    philtmcnasty8 philtmcnasty8 Feb 19, 2016 12:50 PM Flag

    I think the APA issue created uncertainty. Even though there is a maximum to the effect of any adverse tax ruling, the stock seems to have overshot this as frustrated investors watch other miners take off with the price of gold while this one goes the opposite way. Counter-intuitive as it may be, I wonder if this would have gone down this much if there hadn't been a recovery in precious metals.

  • Reply to

    Bloomberg

    by tikas2709 Feb 18, 2016 4:13 PM
    philtmcnasty8 philtmcnasty8 Feb 19, 2016 10:02 AM Flag

    Are you talking about the S&P debt downgrade? Bloomberg didn't call KGC junk. That wasn't an opinion. They were reporting the S&P downgrade of Kinross debt. Even S&P doesn't use the term "junk". That is a term commonly used in the debt market to refer to debt below BBB- (considered the lowest investment grade rating).

    It is somewhat negative for Kinross but only affects future cash flow if they can't get upgrade before their debt comes due. In any case ratings agencies are notoriously bad at timing in cyclical industries, often downgrading industries at or near the bottom of cycle.

  • philtmcnasty8 by philtmcnasty8 Feb 18, 2016 3:37 PM Flag

    Last week RBC analyst felt the worst case scenario re tax outcome had been priced in. That was when it traded for C$2.23. It's now below C$2 and that's after the recent rise in gold and silver along with most miners.
    You'd think the Mexican gov't was going to nationalize the mine.

  • Has anyone heard from other miners with development projects in Mexico? I wonder if this case will have some concerned about investing $$ in Mexico if they can't predict future taxes.

    It would be nice to hear some details on this, even a summary of what's in those 200 pages!

  • philtmcnasty8 by philtmcnasty8 Feb 17, 2016 10:16 AM Flag

    According to the latest estimate of construction costs, even at $800 gold (the low case) Brucejack has an after-tax NPV of $720M, which is higher than the current market value. I know there are risks when building a new mine, but the current share price ascribes no value to future exploration potential. In addition, if gold were to drop to $800, you can bet there will be no shortage of used mining equipment looking for a home at bargain basement prices, not to mention miners looking for a job. In other words construction and operating costs will come down.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Gold is up $40...

    by eleni.access Feb 11, 2016 8:31 AM
    philtmcnasty8 philtmcnasty8 Feb 11, 2016 10:05 AM Flag

    It dropped because TAHO dropped, but the reasons for that are less clear. There aren't very many pure silver miners out there. Tahoe was one of the few. This acquisition makes them a more balanced gold/silver miner. It's possible some investors that owned Tahoe because of its focus on silver may have bailed in search of a better silver pure play. I think other investors will come in to fill the void but the transition is not always smooth.

  • Reply to

    Gold is up $40...

    by eleni.access Feb 11, 2016 8:31 AM
    philtmcnasty8 philtmcnasty8 Feb 11, 2016 9:25 AM Flag

    It's looking more and more like a good deal for Tahoe. LSG now tied to TAHO shares. Both should rise substantially from here.

  • philtmcnasty8 philtmcnasty8 Feb 11, 2016 9:22 AM Flag

    uhmm...the market hasn't opened yet... so... Tahoe isn't trading yet.

  • Reply to

    Some perspective

    by philtmcnasty8 Feb 8, 2016 2:40 PM
    philtmcnasty8 philtmcnasty8 Feb 10, 2016 4:22 PM Flag

    Update: combined MV of the two companies now $2.2B, down almost 10% in the face of a gold, silver & miner rally. It may be that we are seeing a rotation as LSG investors who don't want the added geographical risk associated with Tahoe bail and TAHO investors that prefer an almost pure play silver miner also bail. Other investors should come in to fill the void.

  • Reply to

    Some perspective

    by philtmcnasty8 Feb 8, 2016 2:40 PM
    philtmcnasty8 philtmcnasty8 Feb 8, 2016 3:58 PM Flag

    Another way to look at it... as of close Feb 4, combined Tahoe /Lake Shore market value was approx. $2.4B. Now combined value is approx. $2.3B. And that's after a rip-roaring rally in gold, silver and precious metal miners!

  • philtmcnasty8 by philtmcnasty8 Feb 8, 2016 2:40 PM Flag

    Tahoe shares are down 9% since the close on Feb 4. In that same time, GDX is up about 10%. That's a relative under-performance by Tahoe of nearly 20%. In terms of BV as measured at the close Feb 4 (approx. $2B) that's about $400M arguably attributable to the M&A news. That's almost the entire pre-news value of Lakeshore. Does that make any sense?

  • Reply to

    Help me understand today's SP activity:

    by kdetlefsen1954 Feb 8, 2016 12:50 PM
    philtmcnasty8 philtmcnasty8 Feb 8, 2016 2:25 PM Flag

    It is Canadian. It is also not a cash deal but shares of Tahoe which are now dropping in value.

  • philtmcnasty8 by philtmcnasty8 Feb 8, 2016 12:28 PM Flag

    Interesting to note that in the later stages of equity bull market, we saw acquirers typically rise on news of a takeover, even though it turned out to be ill-timed in most cases.

    Now we have Tahoe taking a run at Lake Shore after 4 years of absolute devastation in gold miners... for some perspective, 5 years ago the price of gold in Canadian dollars was under $1400, now it is over $1600; 5 years ago the price of oil ( a major input in gold mining) was $100, now it is $30 ($40 Canadian); 5 years ago LSG went for over $4/share, and now, at least before this takeover news, it was going for under $1.

    I'm guessing Tahoe's timing is pretty good in the grand scheme of things Looking forward to the day when acquiring miners get a bump on M&A news. Then it will be time to sell.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Silver liability

    by bosar53 Feb 5, 2016 7:49 PM
    philtmcnasty8 philtmcnasty8 Feb 6, 2016 1:54 PM Flag

    I don't get this. If Primero (or Goldcorp before it) had financed this mine by issuing debt instead of selling silver stream to SW, they would be paying tax deductible interest to some foreign bond holder (instead of Mexican gov't). So what's the difference here? The difference between the spot price and the price in streaming deal is in effect the cost of financing the mine.

    I think it's more likely Mexican tax authority is going after 7.5% royalty on that price differential. The royalty was introduced recently (2014 I think). Government royalties are usually revenue based and usually apply before other royalties such as from streaming deals (the deal with SW is like a royalty).

  • philtmcnasty8 philtmcnasty8 Feb 5, 2016 4:56 PM Flag

    This stock is down almost 40% over the last 3 days while GDX is up nearly 20%. If you figure, roughly speaking, that PPP might have gone up similar to other miners were it not for this latest news, the drop attributable to this incident is more like 60%! That's a lot for the uncertainty of a tax ruling.

  • Primero is now valued only slightly higher than the value ascribed to Brigus at the time of acquisition.

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