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Amgen Inc. Message Board

phjohnson 1115 posts  |  Last Activity: Aug 16, 2012 1:35 PM Member since: Apr 13, 1998
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  • Agilent has EPS of $3 per share and growing revenue and earnings. Agilent is a $45 stock--easily.

    The drop from $40 to $37 post earnings is temporary--IMHO.

    Analysts still have price targets above $50.

    With the current low interest rate environment, Agilent should have a PE closer to 20, which translates to a price target of $60 based on current earnings.

    This is a buying opportunity.

    AMAT reported lower earnings and revenue, and projects revenue to decline 25% to 40% next quarter and zero earnings. AMAT dropped at the open to $11.30, then went positive to $12. This market is crazy on short term. AMAT will probably hold $12 through options expiration Friday, then trend down to $10 or below because the fundamentals will not support a price above $10.

    Agilent will go up from $37 because the fundamentals ultimately set the stock price.

  • Reply to

    Bullish technical all the way on Yamana Gold

    by giawellmann Aug 9, 2012 9:14 AM
    phjohnson phjohnson Aug 9, 2012 9:19 AM Flag

    I agree. The chart has a bullish triangle, but the earnings report on the surface was weak. Next earnings report will be much stronger. I like the trend for much higher gold production. Going from 1M to 1.7M ounces by 2014. That is an outlook that should make AUY rally today, but the opening looks weak. The delayed shipments from Argentina should be a plus near term. However, the headline for the earnings is weak, and a read of the earnings report details is needed to see the near- and long-term strengths.

  • Reply to

    MetLife Announces Second Quarter 2012 Results

    by bluecheese4u Aug 1, 2012 4:25 PM
    phjohnson phjohnson Aug 1, 2012 5:08 PM Flag

    Would be nice if MET earned $2 every quarter to give a PE of 3.75.

    If so, MET might increase the dividend so my grandmother who bought her first shares in 1938 can get new dentures (just kidding--both grandmothers are dead).

  • phjohnson phjohnson Aug 1, 2012 5:05 PM Flag

    Apparently, the market is stunned at the remarkably excellent performance of MET, and needs some time to digest the earnings report.

    Might take a day or two for the Wall Streeters to realized how absurdly cheap MET is at $30, and start buying.

    I suggest that you buy a lot more at the open tomorrow.

    I am long MET with 600 Aug 18 $31 calls, and hoping for a run to $36 over the next two weeks.

  • Reply to

    AMGN and HEALTH CARE

    by Adelantado Jul 12, 2012 6:08 PM
    phjohnson phjohnson Jul 25, 2012 2:35 PM Flag

    Obama extended unemployment insurance during the 2008-2010 recession. Without that small income, I would be homeless.

    The economy recovered enough under Obama that I got back to work in mid-2011.

    Richard Nixon tried to pass "medicare for all" type national medical insurance program.

    Romney as governor instituted a state-wide medical insurance program in Massachusetts.

    "Obamacare" has wide support. Nixon tried to implement. Romney succeeded. While not perfect "Obamacare" is a step in the right direction.

    Imagine a world where McCain/Palin win in 2008.

    Amgen grows earnings by cutting expenses. $80 will be a top. As the patents expire, the earnings will fall.

  • Revenue down. Profit down. World economy going down. CYMI--going down to $45 or less real soon.

    I like the technology, but business is getting weaker. Reality is stock price reflects earnings and revenue.

  • Reply to

    See you at 35

    by hacker44240 Jul 24, 2012 4:49 PM
    phjohnson phjohnson Jul 24, 2012 5:09 PM Flag

    I agree. ILMN business is weak and getting weaker. No longer a growth stock worthy of a high valuation.

    PE over 50 while shrinking revenue and earnings. How low with ILMN go? Below $30 for sure.

    Might see a bout of short covering before the run down to $35 and below.

  • Reply to

    WHY THE 1.14% DROP AH?

    by tsibr549 Jul 23, 2012 5:07 PM
    phjohnson phjohnson Jul 23, 2012 5:39 PM Flag

    AH results are usually just noise.

    AH results following an event, such as earnings release or buyout, are usually strong predictors of the next day price action.

    In the case of T, the 1.14% after hours drop is noise. T started the day down 1%, but closed up. The 1.14% down after hours matches the open today.

    For tomorrow, T will disappoint worse than VZ--IMHO. I expect T to trade below $33 by the end of this week, especially if the overall market goes down (which is most likely).

  • phjohnson phjohnson Jul 19, 2012 4:59 PM Flag

    My girlfriend switch to VZ from T.
    VZ has much better coverage than T.
    Her new VZ phone is faster than my 4s on the T network.
    I anticipate some weakness in the earnings report for T due to VZ getting the iPhone.

  • Reply to

    DOW UP 100% SINCE OBAMA TOOK OFFICE

    by dexter.sellnow Mar 8, 2012 6:19 PM
    phjohnson phjohnson Jul 18, 2012 8:01 PM Flag

    Ten Trillion Dollars wasted on Unnecessary Wars to secure access to oil reserves for the friends of George Bush II.

    Nobody talks about cutting defense spending except Ron Paul.

    Wave the flag.

  • Reply to

    Best idea??? You got to be kidding me...

    by emailbot Jul 18, 2012 12:36 PM
    phjohnson phjohnson Jul 18, 2012 7:17 PM Flag

    Do you think URBN stock price will hold until earnings, or do you expect a decline leading to earnings? Or a run higher ahead of earnings?

    Retail stocks will decline soon, as retails sales are declining.

    Your Wall Street manipulation story is interesting, and not unusual.

    Thanks!

  • phjohnson phjohnson Jul 18, 2012 3:25 AM Flag

    The housing market is getting manipulated.
    The banks have millions of homes on the threshold of foreclosure.
    After the election, the dumping will begin.

    New home sales rise--from a very low level in 2011.

    Look beyond the headlines.

    Plum Creek back to $20.

    Sell!

  • phjohnson phjohnson Jul 16, 2012 2:57 PM Flag

    Good question.
    Rally on Friday not confirmed on Monday.
    Central banks worldwide are raising capital requirements.
    Was 2% now 6% capital reserve requirement.
    Citicorp CEO expect 8% in 2013.
    Thank means banks will have to shrink the balance sheet. The banks will have to contract to meet the requirement. Seems to me...
    Seems to me that the real estate market is due for another dump of properties by the banks, after the election.

  • Retail sales down 3 months in a row, and AEO and other retailer up?

    This is spooky. Usually, any retail sales decline would cause a three day dip, at least. Why is this latest negative trend indicator ignored today?

    Manipulation of markets to make Obama look good?

    Just a bounce in the downward trend?

    What do you think?

  • ADP will trade below 200dma by Sept 1st.
    If the market tanks, ADP will trade to $48, which is about PE of 15.

  • Reply to

    Voice of reason.

    by uluwatu2010 Jul 12, 2012 2:43 PM
    phjohnson phjohnson Jul 12, 2012 2:46 PM Flag

    Looks like a short squeeze.
    Could go higher tomorrow, as the short interest is 16 days to cover.
    The magnitude of the jump post-earnings is a surprise.

  • Reply to

    Negative Earnings

    by goodiedr Jul 11, 2012 7:27 PM
    phjohnson phjohnson Jul 12, 2012 1:10 PM Flag

    Very much a surprise reaction to a pathetic earnings report.

    TXI up 12% after missing on revenue and no earnings.

    Asset sales hiding the lack of profits.

    This spike up is an aberation, not supported by fundamentals or outlook.

    TXI going down starting tomorrow-IMHO.

  • The best explanation for the 10% jump in TXI today after the pathetic earnings report is short covering or some options/short transactions by big players.
    A 10% drop in TXI is more consistent with the fundamentals and outlook for TXI.
    The stock will be closer to $30 within a few months-IMHO.

  • Reply to

    Does anyone really know why????????

    by kolizacr Jul 12, 2012 9:59 AM
    phjohnson phjohnson Jul 12, 2012 11:13 AM Flag

    Be patient.
    TXI will be going down starting tomorrow or Monday.
    The fundamentals do not support the current stock price.
    The pathetic earnings report is the proof.
    The surge in the stock price--10% is unsustainable.
    Why up today? Did the CEO say the company was for sale? Relief that the losses were not greater? Pure manipulation? Construction boom coming for TX and CA? Not likely.
    The market can trick you in the short run, especially around "an event" like earnings report. But, in the long run earnings and outlook drive the stock price.

  • Reply to

    COLLAPSING like a ton of bricks. see 4 yourself

    by holywallst Dec 1, 2011 3:37 PM
    phjohnson phjohnson Jul 11, 2012 8:37 PM Flag

    Results posted...

    Looks like TXI lost money again.
    Asset sales create the appearance of profits.

    Let's face it, construction is down and will remain down for years as Great Recession Part 2 deepens.

    The go-go years 2002-2007 for construction distorted expectations. The forces that caused that construction boom are long gone.

    Today, world-wide economic weakness. Not a recipe for a strong construction cycle.

AMGN
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