there are so many projects and supply cuts going down worldwide by almost all the big and medium companies, as well as the small ones, and these will take awhile to set in over the next year and awhile when needed to be restarted, that the reverse effect outlined by the first post in this thread of future supply shortages as well as the demand estimates for asia over the rest of the decade will most likely create the reverse effect and spike the oil price someday. when it starts this uptrend, traders and speculators will all buy in for the ride up and could cause an even more extreme spike in the price of oil.
its like the worse it gets, the more cutting, and over time as demand grows, and supply and production growth cuts set in, the more it sets up for supply shortages, increased demand, and a rising oil price some year again. many analysts have said this, the more drastic the oil crash, the more drastic the future shortages or oil price increase could be in the future. not to mention the pressure from many other opec members and it is almost impossible that oil could remain this low permanently or for more than 3 years. but it could go lower in the meantime. really hard to predict, their seems to be an analyst supporting every scenario.
i do not know how the market would read this in the short term. overall, it does not seem like it would change much unless they foresee some kind of political struggle in saudi arabia but the saudis probably have had a solid succession plan considering he was 90. other than that, unless it is seen to effect their opec policy which it probably will not, probably not much long term effect.
oil will rise again due to growing demand for the rest of this decade coupled with all the cancelled projects and slowdown in production and growth and the price of oil will rise again.
history has shown also, that the faster the price of oil crashes, normally, the faster it rises back up some once supply and demand are rebalanced.
and oil stocks, in general, rise along with it.
and sometimes even faster.
some companies more than others depending on their specific financial shape but once oil rises back up, investors will buy oil companies, and as their share price goes into an uptrend, more investors will pile on the trend raising their price further.
long term investors know oil can not remain at these low levels forever.
oil this low causes major production and exploration and new drilling cutbacks, along with increased world demand over the rest of this decade causes the price of oil to rise.
even the saudis will run a budget deficit at these low levels and although, they have the money reserves to do it, will not want to do it for years.
yes. hiland is not clr but now he has a little something to use for paying off the money he used to pay the wife, so hopefully, it takes some heat off him using clr stock as collaterall for paying the wife off. meaning, less likely he would ever have to sell any of his clr stock and therefore he retains control of the company.
maybe not that high, but it always cycles and always rises in the end after a big crash. the crash causes boatloads of projects to all be cancelled and companies seriously cut back and over the year after supply production goes down. after time, demand grows again and all these projects were shuttered and many take time to get started. production growth is slow to pick up, demand grows and oil usually spikes back up after time. there will be a lot of demand growth from asia over the next decade and production growth will be needed.
continental will go through a hard time but will survive and they are sitting on a lot of oil that can be produced for decades. the price of oil will eventually rise. there is a good article in usa today and othe outlets. look up - former oil exec $5-a-gallon gas on the way - just a matter of patience for long term investors. could go lower in the shrot term though.
actually, this whole oil crash has been her worst nightmare. if not getting more than a billion is a nightmare for her. and she was wise because before he had eight years to pay the balance. just the interest she could earn on the early payment amounts is huge for her. but he owned the shares before marriage which usually means they are not marital assets except since he worked as the ceo and she worked there, she argues that it was much of his expertise that made the high value of the shares over the years and when she originally argued this it was before the crash. she wanted a bigger percentage of the whole value. he argued a lot of the price appreciation over the years was due to market forces, not his work, and therefore, none of the value in the shares should be considered a marital asset. the judge made a reward amount and she argued it was way too small and is appealing. but during this the oil market crashes and clr plummets in price. that totally boosts his argument that much of the price is due to market forces and the stock graph is the evidence along with the graph of oil prices along side it. also, if she now argues she deserves a greater percentage of the total value of the shares he owns, it is much less now. as far as the divorce goes, the more market forces depress this and the lower value of his shares are worth, gives her a much less chance of getting more. the oil price crash came at the absolutely worst time for her appeal. the redder it is for him, the worst her chances are for getting more.
agree. whiting has the potential with an increase in oil prices in time and growth for more percentage gain over time in the share price. but a better balance sheet than xom. that is a bit of a joke.
then it could drift lower, stay lower, go sideways, or just bounce around at depressed levels. might be low for two months or two years or three. you never know. market does look ahead, and saw bad times and that is why it dropped from its peak and crashed to here. at some point it levels off and might find a balance between the current dismal situation and the long term outlook of the fact that they have such a huge amount of land and oil beneath it that could give them growth for 50 years or more. it could go lower or stay at these levels. a lot depends too, over time and the next 4 quarters as these companies start reporting their earnings and the true reality of the situation starts to give a picture of which ones are looking to be the survivors and will be around 5 years from now. on the positive side, clr started 50 years ago with one well and has survived many oil drops and the company grew over the last 50 years when oil prices were lower. they might not grow but either maintain or decrease production. time will show how well the company manages this and sets itself up for the future. and that will give a better picture for the market looking ahead on this.
in the long run either way oil should come back up again. who knows the time frame, but global demand will increase greatly over the next 30 years and on the shorter run, demand should increase over the next five years and many projects will be halted or slowed because of this oil crash which will overtime eat up some of the supply and prices will rise again. clr should do fine over the next few decades, even with a real hardship period here to overcome. the safest ones to own for the next few decades are probably the big u.s. oil stocks, xom, cvx, cop, oxy. xom should do well for the next 50 years or more with an on average growing dividend. the shale stocks have the biggest chance with an increase in oil prices over the years to grow for decades too and reap the biggest % in share price increase with whiting and continental probably the best chance to make it through this tough period and thrive again.
eventually, and hard to know the time frame but oil will rise again. you can search - oil decline compared to past crashes - where after a big crash it eventually comes back up. also, over time i think the saudis will want higher prices and they are now going to be getting more and more pressure from within opec to bring up the price. search the article - iran venezuela vow to neutralise oil price problem - who knows how sooner or later but someday either natural market forces of more demand growing with the decrease in production from many companies and/or the pressure within opec itself will raise prices. hard to say time frame, but doubtful, you will see low prices for years or more.
he did not sell any stock nor did he use the companies money. this has nothing to do with how the company performs except that since he has not sold any stock yet, he will continue to control the company. but a billion is not gone from the bottom line of clr.