Would be nice to a higher high next week and then roll over for good... About time! Don't see a real upside catalyst in Sep. - Mid Oct., but plenty of headline risk in the pipeline. Would we get a 1987 type scenario? The stars sure have lined up, but the central bankers will do everything in their power to stop even a 4%-5% decline!
Market will just shrug it off... Why?
More sanctions = Bad for EU economy = More QE = New ATH
This is one twisted market!
"where taxpayer money is used to enrich Wall Street"
Well... I would extend that beyond wall street. there has been a methodical transfer of wealth from MC to the top 1% over the past several decades. But, what makes post 2009 different is that it has been blatant and very public.
Currently we're in a A-B-C pattern since almost 2000 and are inching up against the top of B and the C wave that follows will be much larger, nastier and faster that the wave A we saw in 2008-2009.
C wave might do 1-2-3-4-5 decline.
We will know when Wave-1 decline of this C wave begins I (It could start in Sep/Oct.) and you can make some good $$$ on the downside, then there should be a Wave-2 that might be a 50%-78.6% retrace of Wave-1 (Another a-b-c) decline thus making a lower high (aggressive trader can play this one as well) but the real pay-off would be to catch the Wave-3 of this decline and ride it down.
We can have more specific targets once the Wave-1 unfolds for sure (A sure way to tell is the breach on the Aug-7 support trend line)
That is the issue... Nobody is funding anything. Just creating money out of thin air. All they need is a printing press, plates, ink & paper :)
The bear is just dormant... but, will be the deadliest one once active. Imagine the unwinding of all those QE programs!
Not to mention that most of the common retail have be wiped out in the past 2 crashes. Of course! the 401 K is still at risk for people that have them in equities.
This is setting up for another post labor day (Week of Sep.2nd) blow off top and then a nice sell-off at least to challenge the 200 DMA, unless there is a rude awakening this Thursday with lower revised GDP number?
Warning signs of the above unfolding:
1) Minor warning if 1980 is breached (Reduce 30%)
2) 1965-1955 is taken (Falling below 50 DMA) (Reduce 20%)
3) 1928-1930 is taken (Reduce 30%)
4) 1875-1900 is taken (Losing both 150 DMA/200 DMA) (All cash)
If we get to #4 and have a weak bounce to 1920-1955 level then watch out for a crash type scenario that take the markets to the 1600 level in the next 8-12 weeks.
What would negate the above bearish scenario? A new ATH in the NASDAQ and first warning sign would be Russell setting a new ATH.
Lack of volume and/or interest is a very serious issue. It addresses liquidity and when that dries up then when everyone tries to SELL without BIDS to support them... Guess what? You thought 1987 was bad... fast forward 27 years, super-fast computers, Algos & HFT... the markets will crash for days and will trade between circuit breaks. Low volume is NOT a concern until it is... Right now the Algos are playing one sided game due the disappearance of sellers... Just wait and see when some large sell orders hit the tape, this house of cards will come crashing down :) But, the question is what would trigger the initial SELLING? That is the million $ question...
1) Bad U.S. economic data (GDP, Housing, Manufacturing etc.)
2) Earnings downward revisions or warnings
3) Geo-political events or crisis
4) International markets tanking or other credit related issues.
5) Just based on technicals...
Almost all the above are already happening or at the verge of unfolding. Sep/Oct is going to be rough!
The market is at a tipping point and year 2014 will go down in history as a turning point for US equities
"Buy & Hold" worked cuz of the real EPIC bull run from the 60's to 2000 (With minor setup backs in between) but you can't say the same since 2000. Of course! some stocks have performed better, but a lot of investors got wiped out in the 2 bears since. The third one will wipe out the rest if they don't protect or hedge themselves.
$37 is a critical level... (5 EMA and the bottom of channel since the earnings gap up) If it breaks then the downside move should be fast. If I were s long I would set my stop around that area...
Didn't you know? The phones have BIGGER screens!!! AAPL phones are now the size that SAMSUNG had for the last 2-3 years...LOL
Welcome to WS BS cycle... Luv it, H@te it, Luv it again, H@te it again...
We're in the 3rd phase (Luv it again)
Closed at the LOD... Running out of steam? Tomorrow should be interesting tell... A close below 5 EMA would make way to testing 20 DMA
Well... It has been a painful trade. I added more this morning to my put position. I think the market is at a tipping point and I'm still in the below 1900 first camp.
The question of X selling off is NOT IF, but WHEN... It is extremely over-bought on the Daily/Weekly. It needs to either price correct or time correct and I'm betting on the former.
If it goes to $40 then it would be a breakout... My bet is $31-$33 before a significant move higher. it is over-bought, but will it price correct or time correct? Looking at the broader market weakness, my $$$$ is on price correction.
The puts are lower today as volatility in X has subsided... A close below 35.44 would confirm the sell signal or a close above 35.89 would kick in the stop loss.