Hard to say... Should be down again if trading on fundamentals, technically, the stock has weakened considerably and closed below it's 20 DMA (First time since June). No real support until 50 DMA @ 37, but the stock has been down last 6/7 days and might have a small bounce.
I'm short the steel space via X (The stock has moved from $22.5-$46.5) in 3 months on global demand for steel. What a joke? That rising wedge is getting real hard to defend and a break down is imminent
Expected was 50.5 and previous month was 50.2 (basically flat MOM) So much for the global growth engine of the word... Struggling to stay above 50
So, all commodities are getting sold off, but Steel demand is growing based on the above numbers? Watch out below...
If you're indeed trying to play the global economic recovery play... then there are so many other stocks that will perform much better. Look at the beaten down coal & iron-ore names. Steel is in complete disconnect with every thing else cuz WS was long... Now that tide is turning. Precisely why i picked this sector and this stock in particular to play the downside... The ting about MOMO is it works both ways. A fews days ago you debated me that this would never fall to to $40 and here we are... technical do matter big time and no real support until $37'ish now. You do know that a stock like X can just gap down 10% and there goes your stop-loss...
Your move from 15.60 to 46.55 was the counter-trend move... Now it might be time to resume the broader downtrend again. Aren't you 60 cents from your stop loss? Will you pull the trigger and exit if it hits that level tomorrow? (Which BTW is very likely)
Wave-iii on the downside is about to unfold and the next drop will be more in the order of 2%+ diving to 1930-1940 level.
"Do you really believe that the shorts weren't wrong on this? "
I'm sure they were wrong from $196 to $17 (In 2008-09) and then from ($75-$16) and then again from ($32-$15)... See a pattern here... Lower highs, lower lows X still in a long term down trend and bear market (As are the whole commodity complex)
Fell right through the Ichimoku support and the 20 DMA today. 50 DMA @ $37'ish level will be tested in a day or 2, esp. if the broader market remains weak! X is still a lot to fall compared to it's peers and Steel in general... Just to play catch up :) For people with $40 stop loss, don't hold your breath, it will be tested and most likely broken.
Since Sep 19th, Market has been down 2% and X down 13% (Goes down with the market, but never rallies with it) Typical price action for MOMO plays.... Will go lower!
1930-1940 is in the cards next unless central bankers come up with something
'm going to try and make it simple to follow the EW that might be in the making..
Wave-2 (1978-2000) = FR = 50%
Wave i = 2000-1966
Wave ii = 1966-1987 (Where we are now) = FR = 61.8%
Wave iii = Will be nasty and the powerful part of this initial down move. Looks like it might start next week... That move should take it down to1940-1955 level
Wave-ii retraced 61.8% of Wave-i downside move from (2000-1966) I think the wave should end here which means some nasty selling is abut to unfold. Unless it decisively moves above 1994 level and stays there the next big move is to the downside
I'm going to try and make it simple to follow the EW that might be in the making..
Wave i = 2000-1966
Wave ii = 1966-1976 (Where we are now)
Wave iii = Will be nasty and the powerful part of this initial down move. Looks like it might start next week, or if there is big fade in to the close.
Watch if it moves below 40.95-41.25 (20 DMA and prior high) then it will rapidly fall to $40 and below that no real strong support until 50 DMA @ 37 (But if it gets to 37 then the selling might accelerate as many longs will be under water) But, Fridays have had a bullish bias... so let us wait and see where is closes the week.
"For some reason you think the cycle is done "
Yes, as far the stock price is concerned unless it retraces a decent amount of this massive move.
All I'm saying is it is foolish not to lock in profits when you've has a huge run. This is not GPRO or TSLA or TWTR... This an uncharacteristic run for a steel stock to double in 2-3 months when all other commodities are getting clobbered. Stocks don't go up or down in a straight line and what is wrong with buying it at much lower levels?