Anybody can have an impact if you take a big stake and force some board changes, but I'm not sure if BTU is right company to unlock any value.
This move has nothing to with Soros buying 1M shares (Which is peanuts for him and the float). Unless, he has significantly added since and files a 13-D in the next day or 2, stock is moving based on technicals.
If that were to happen and it gaps up over the 100 DMA and the Ichimoku cloud (around $2.90) tomorrow then opens the path to $3.5-$4.8 in a rapid fashion.
Don't confuse a bear market rally in the commodity complex with global gtowth. Global deflation is here to stay. With that being said, energy stocks should have a snap back rally.
" if this is in correlation with the overall energy market "
Not really, BTU was up even when crude was tanking... Only ACI & BTU have really outperformed. The waves and target levels are stock specific.
The short interest reduced by 6% (~6M shares) is from August-1st to August-15th. What does this mean? My guess would be that the smart shorts already covered... Why? Imagine if you were short BTU at $5 or higher... You would have booked your profits.
The following is an approximate analysis of the average price and number of shares shorted during that time period. It is not 100% accurate, but captures the ball-park average shoring price and potential pain points for the shorts.
Based on the below stats the biggest pain is if BTU breaks $2.65--$2.73 and moves up quickly in to the $3-$4 range, then if any of the lingering shorts or new shorts that have not covered during this high volume run up will be trounced. ACI's DDE new should be monitored over the weekend and in to Monday, could have huge impact on BTU (Positive or Negative)
Time period: Dec-16th, 2014 to Aug-15th, 2015 (Last 8 months). Short interest jumped from 43 M shares to a whopping 95.5 M shares.
$1 - $2 - 3.5 M shares shorted
$2 - $3 - 25.6 M shares shorted
$3 - $4 - 2.7 M shares shorted
$5 - $6 - 7.3 M shares shorted
$6 - $7 - 9.9 M shares shorted
$7 - $8 - 12.3 M shares shorted
Settlement -Shares -Average
Date -Shorted -Price
08/15/2015 -6,068,134 $???
07/31/2015 3,508,678 $1.2
07/15/2015 -605,230 $1.51
06/30/2015 18,234,717 $2.36
06/15/2015 7,287,000 $2.92
05/29/2015 2,796,942 $3.82
05/15/2015 -537,132 $4.55
04/30/2015 -1,671,140 $4.97
04/15/2015 7,092,221 $5.13
03/31/2015 213,648 $5.71
03/13/2015 4,526,104 $6.61
02/27/2015 -169,169 $7.65
02/13/2015 4,823,473 $7.25
01/30/2015 2,371,080 $6.38
01/15/2015 2,923,022 $6.97
12/31/2014 7,500,674 $8.16
Negative number for "shares shorted " for certain time periods indicate covering as short interest went down
Depends on when you wrote the covered calls... Unless, you cover them before the close or BTU ends up
If BTU is the middle of Wave-3 of 3 of the primary wave-1 up then none of the news can stop the upside momentum, unless the count is wrong expect the rise to continue. Most technical indicators RSI, MACD, %R, CCI, volume confirm today's break out and strength.
Wave-2 = 2.02-1.28 (Approx 61.8% retracement)
Target-1 : 1.618 times wave-1 = $2.95
Target-2: 2.618 times wave-1 = $3.97
Target-1 : 0.382 retracement of Wave-3 = $2.31
Target-2 : 0.382 retracement of Wave-3 = $2.95
Many combinations are possible.... Will post later!
Precisely why don't trade based on headlines, esp. in the AH (Unless you are trading a biotech that is hinging on a drug being approved or not) Shorts will jump all over it........
Gee... People piling on the selling in the AH based on this headline. Retail panic and dump... Up during regular trading on 58 M shares and down more than 20% AH on a volume of 150-200K shares. Man! WS sure know to scare the small retail investor! Well, the oldest trick in the book is to pull the BIDS to create panic!
"Minimum upside target should be any where between 2.3-2.7 range."
I rest my case!
For all the people who think TA, Wave patterns, fib. extensions and retracements don't matter, please reconsider your thought process. Media just like to find a reason for the move after it has transpired, for the nth time, Soros buying 1M shares had nothing to do with this move (Unless of course he is actively adding now...LOL)
A 6% decrease and now 95 M shares short!!!!
As of August-15th, 2015
Current SI: 95.5 M Shares
Prior SI: 101.6 M Shares
Decrease (# Shares): 6.06 M
Decrease (% Shares): 6%
SI as % of Float: 34.7%
At least some shorts were smart to cover between $1.1-$1.25. I wonder what the numbers will look like in the next report? Did they add/cover during this recent pop!
This leg down is not complete until all 5 wave are complete... We are just at the beginning of Wave-5 of Wave-3 down of the Intermediate(1)
Wave-5 of Wave-3 of the Intermediate Wave(1) is unfolding... Should break yesterday's lows tomorrow. But, once a five wave decline is complete then a 38.2% rally retracement from the lows. After the retracement then Wave-5 of Wave(1) should make new low on lower volume and volatility. The intermediate Wave(2) should be a powerful retracement of 61.*5 or even 78.6% of the entire Wave(1) down move... Might be last decent bullish bet for some time :)
I use all the above you mentioned, (%R is another biggie) but most of them are used to spot divergences and procrastinating big moves (Up/Down) rather than predicting direction and projecting targets...
My primary technical analysis method is to figure out the Elliot wave pattern (If one exists) and then try to get some counts for several degrees and be very interested in the change of the Cycle/Primary degree or higher waves. Fib. levels are an integral part of this analysis and so for any technical trading... Also, combine that with the social mood (Extreme Bullish or Bearish) sentiment to corroborate the major turn in trend.
Any Ichimoku cloud traders out there? If yes, then BTU is kissing the "Senkou Span B" of the Kumo cloud for the first time since Feb-March of 2015. The cloud ranges from 1.8-3 and the stock price would experience choppy trade in the cloud. But, a Kumo-breakout could be huge and very Bullish, likewise breaking below
Tenkan Sen (1.55) and Kijun Sen (1.5) would be bearish.
BTU price by this analysis is mildly bullish as the price is still below the cloud...
"Trump could very possibly ruin it for many Republicans running for office in 2016"
The GOP has become extremely right-winged, suck up to the top 1% and trounce rest of America party. Among the current candidates, only one 2 or 3 might even pass the sanity check and possess minimum composure to be presidential.
Unless the GOP redefines to who it caters to, what it stands for? They will lose again no matter how mediocre the democratic candidate is...
TIPS FOR GOP:
Tip-1: Start caring about middle-class, minorities and women (at least pretend better)
Tip-2: Stop sucking up to corporations & banks.
Tip-3: Go easy on the faith based fanaticism and once in a while, actually throw some science in to the mix.
SPY is going under $40 longer term, the only buying and playing for a decent bounce would be once this intermediate Wave(1) is complete.
Dow has surpassed the Oct-2014 lows and NDX came very close. S&P held much better than the other 2 indices, but should eventually given in a a part of Wave-5 of this primary Wave-1 down. When the dust settles, you should see a powerful rally that should retrace 61.8% (Minimum) or higher from Peak to trough...
Aggressive traders can go long for the bounce, which most likley will be a ABC pattern and catch wave-A, medium risk traders can wait for the completion of AB and then go long for the C-Wave.
After the retracement is complete then the powerful primary Wave-3 should be relentless and most likely would have a market crash to wipe out 30% or greater in a rapid fashion.
If the market fails to complete the five wave move down and set a new low below 1867 in the next day or this week then will have to reconsider the bearish potential.