A 6% decrease and now 95 M shares short!!!!
As of August-15th, 2015
Current SI: 95.5 M Shares
Prior SI: 101.6 M Shares
Decrease (# Shares): 6.06 M
Decrease (% Shares): 6%
SI as % of Float: 34.7%
At least some shorts were smart to cover between $1.1-$1.25. I wonder what the numbers will look like in the next report? Did they add/cover during this recent pop!
This leg down is not complete until all 5 wave are complete... We are just at the beginning of Wave-5 of Wave-3 down of the Intermediate(1)
Wave-5 of Wave-3 of the Intermediate Wave(1) is unfolding... Should break yesterday's lows tomorrow. But, once a five wave decline is complete then a 38.2% rally retracement from the lows. After the retracement then Wave-5 of Wave(1) should make new low on lower volume and volatility. The intermediate Wave(2) should be a powerful retracement of 61.*5 or even 78.6% of the entire Wave(1) down move... Might be last decent bullish bet for some time :)
I use all the above you mentioned, (%R is another biggie) but most of them are used to spot divergences and procrastinating big moves (Up/Down) rather than predicting direction and projecting targets...
My primary technical analysis method is to figure out the Elliot wave pattern (If one exists) and then try to get some counts for several degrees and be very interested in the change of the Cycle/Primary degree or higher waves. Fib. levels are an integral part of this analysis and so for any technical trading... Also, combine that with the social mood (Extreme Bullish or Bearish) sentiment to corroborate the major turn in trend.
Any Ichimoku cloud traders out there? If yes, then BTU is kissing the "Senkou Span B" of the Kumo cloud for the first time since Feb-March of 2015. The cloud ranges from 1.8-3 and the stock price would experience choppy trade in the cloud. But, a Kumo-breakout could be huge and very Bullish, likewise breaking below
Tenkan Sen (1.55) and Kijun Sen (1.5) would be bearish.
BTU price by this analysis is mildly bullish as the price is still below the cloud...
"Trump could very possibly ruin it for many Republicans running for office in 2016"
The GOP has become extremely right-winged, suck up to the top 1% and trounce rest of America party. Among the current candidates, only one 2 or 3 might even pass the sanity check and possess minimum composure to be presidential.
Unless the GOP redefines to who it caters to, what it stands for? They will lose again no matter how mediocre the democratic candidate is...
TIPS FOR GOP:
Tip-1: Start caring about middle-class, minorities and women (at least pretend better)
Tip-2: Stop sucking up to corporations & banks.
Tip-3: Go easy on the faith based fanaticism and once in a while, actually throw some science in to the mix.
SPY is going under $40 longer term, the only buying and playing for a decent bounce would be once this intermediate Wave(1) is complete.
Dow has surpassed the Oct-2014 lows and NDX came very close. S&P held much better than the other 2 indices, but should eventually given in a a part of Wave-5 of this primary Wave-1 down. When the dust settles, you should see a powerful rally that should retrace 61.8% (Minimum) or higher from Peak to trough...
Aggressive traders can go long for the bounce, which most likley will be a ABC pattern and catch wave-A, medium risk traders can wait for the completion of AB and then go long for the C-Wave.
After the retracement is complete then the powerful primary Wave-3 should be relentless and most likely would have a market crash to wipe out 30% or greater in a rapid fashion.
If the market fails to complete the five wave move down and set a new low below 1867 in the next day or this week then will have to reconsider the bearish potential.
Today's price action is kinda important... Why? The upside move doesn't seem to have completed 5 wave move up and could be only Wave-4 of the broader downtrend, which means another low would be in the cards... How will we know?
Wave-1 = 0.99-2.02
Wave-2 = 2.02-1.28 (Approx 61.8% retracement)
Wave-3 = Minimum 1.618 times wave-1 = $2.95
2.618 times wave-1 = $3.97
Wave-4 = 0.382 retracement of Wave-3 = $2.31
0.382 retracement of Wave-3 = $2.95
Wave-5 = 1 * wave-1 = $5.01
1 * wave-1 = $6.67
Case -1 (Retracement complete)
Wave-A = 0.99-1.32
Wave-B = 1.32-1.01
Wave-C = 1.01-2.02 (Exactly 23.6% retracement from 21.28 where Wave-3 began)
Case -2 (Retracement underway)
Wave-A = 0.99-2.02
Wave-B = 2.02-1.28 (Approx 61.8% retracement)
Wave-C= Wave-A*1.618 = $2.95
Wave-A*2.618 = $3.97
Since today's retracement has been on lighter volume than the up move of last 3 sessions, benefit of doubt can be given to the BULL case or the case-2 of the BEAR case... Only on a decisive move over $4 with a Wave-5 can conclude the change in long term trend for BTU.
It doesn't make any sense in trying to predict a closing price of a day 4 months in the future, but a more appropriate prediction is the HIGH/LOW by Dec-31st.
I have to hold off until the price action resolves one way or another this week. If 1.28 is taken out then BTU has not bottomed and sub $1 is in the cards....
Don't be naive... Let the management not suck you in. But, it really doesn't matter how retail share holders vote on it.
Both insignificant... Unless, Soros comes up with a 13D or 13F showing a much bigger stake by the end of next week.
Money was EQUAL to Currency when it was pegged! Most people today think it is the same today... But, not even close. Currency is just paper, esp. with the global money printing that has been going on it's real worth is dropping by the minute.
GOLD is not a true commodity in one big aspect, cuz it is not really of any industrial use (Except for a small fraction of the jewelry market) so, technically the world can totally survive without gold. But, it does derive it's value from being a finite resource and has been considered as symbol of wealth and power going back centuries.
With that being said, it's price did follow the commodity cycles and the EW. Like I posted before, GOLD should have the best rally in the coming months as a part of the retracement of it's fall from 2011. But, after 50%-61.8 retracement then Wave-3 should lead t the complete plummet of gold much below $900.
Island reversal and/or Cup/Handle
For people not familiar with this pattern, you can google for it.
But, if there is a gap up above 2.11 and it holds then this wold a text book island reversal.
Gap down on July-1st
Traded for around 7-8 weeks
Gapped up above that and should never look back...
Another, pattern is the "Cup & Handle" in teh formation and any gap up over 2.02 could lead to break point + depth of the cup which is approx 1.25 which puts the target around 3.25-3.5 level.
As per EW, we might be still working with the Wave-3 of the Primary Wave-1. So, Wave-5 is yet to unfold if this is going to a 5-wave move up. If Wave-5 turns out to the extended one... then we have much further to go before a substantial retracement. But, minimum upside target hould be any where between 2.3-2.7 range.
Trump is pompous #$%$ and has no clue about how to run a casino, let alone a country. You guys must be outta your mind to think that he is even remotely presidential. The guys born with a silver spoon, whose businesses have file for BK 4 times... Hell, any moron could have made twice the money he has today, by just putting his starter $$$$ in an index fund in the 80's. His candidacy was supposed to be a joke for a few laughs... unfortunately, it is getting a little serious. So, I hope America wakes up....
"It's better to view gold as a currency"
Not really, until the gold standard is restored. This is more like a 1929 scenario where everything will go down...
Commodity Cycle Time Periods:
BULL MARKET: 10 Years
BEAR MARKET 20 YEARS
CYCLE: 30 YEARS
2-3 year up/down cycles.. within the BEAR MARKET.
Current bear market started in 2010-2012 (Depending on the commodity) and should last until 2030, but will be experience extreme moves on the both the Up/Down side.
The cycles in recent history:
2010-2030 (Bear) ???
2030-2040 (Bull) ???
With that being said, the secular BEAR market does have 1-2 year up cycles that can lead to huge gains..
If this indeed a turn in the longer term trend then we should expect a 5-wave move up. If that is the case then Wave-5 of this first wave p is yet to unfold, which means we should break 2.02 and potential targets would be 2.3 or even 2.7 level. If that would to happen then that wold be complete retracement of the Minor Wave-5 down (Started from 2.63-0.99)
Like I posted before there will be a commodity uptrend within the secular bear and GOLD included. GOLD will see it biggest counter trend rally since the decline from Sep.2011 top. It completed a 5 wave down move last Nov (Just Wave-1). Might start the multi-month counter trend move up again, Can retrace up to 61.8% of the move (Around 148-150 for GLD) The maximum possible would be $168-$170 level and then the plummet will be relentless as Wave-3 takes hold.
As far as BTU is concerned, I have to disagree at least on the short term. I have been repeatedly posting that if the higher degree wave cycles are complete then you would have a powerful turn that would at the least end up in the price range of $5.9-$8 is a rapid fashion. The rally has nothing to do with Soros or fundamentals, media just finds a way to justify the move and relate it to a current event.
Where will S&P go from here? Same rules apply. It will find it's way to the 4th wave of the higher degree, which last October lows. I posted on SPY board for more specific targets...
I'm not sure why do you or some others on this board even bother replying this moron?? He is not a trader or investor... Just some dude who gets prob. a penny a post! I don't agree to a lot things that RAIL posts, but he was spot on identifying this imbecile, based on his prior encounters with him under different handles. How long do you think he will last talking to himself?
In my opinion, the big shorts are the bondies themselves and as of now their arbitrage trade (Long Bonds, Short Common) is blowing up in their face... Common can appreciate in a rapid fashion and their gains on bonds cannot play catch up.