Weird price action 20K shares AH thrown at the BID to desperately take it down by $0.05 and then it just stopped. ASK has been sitting @ $1.31, 5K shares
There you go....
1.25 M share block @ 15:48 PM just to drive the price down before the close.... Shorts accumulate all day to slam those shares in to the close.
Well... If longs have learnt anything in the past 3-4 trading days, shorts slam the stock lower with bigger volumes in the last 15-30 mins of close. They better bring some fire power or else they will push it lower making it another weekly close in RED. But, complete drying up of volume in an interesting change... At least indicates institutional SELLING might have stopped for now.
Potential Inverse H&S breakout and if it holds then the measured move should take it to the 1.55-1.6 level. Trading at the lower end of the 4-day uptrend channel and the high is around 1.44 level. Today cold be a very crucial day for either side to make a statement.
Still a major stand-off at this level...
Made a higher-high today and a higher-low so far today.
Failed to hold the highs and fell back below 1.29 level and the volume is very weak.
Unless there are some fireworks going in to the close, outside reversal week might not be happening today. I think some thing has to give in... Either break higher or lower. I still think higher, but shorts have been very resilient in defending their territory. Longs better bring some serious firing power in tot he close if they want to turn this ship around.
Weekly close is of higher significance than daily closes :)
WSJ or Reuters broke the news on July 15th that this might happen in the beginning of August.
If this breaks to the upside... expect $5-$6 to come in 1/3-1/2 the time it took on the way down. Extrapolation of time and price using fib can be done once the trend reversal is confirmed with a impulsive move up.
Actually, weekly volume is not all that bad (76M shares). If BTU can do a 24-28 M shares tomorrow and close comfortably over 1.4 then we might actually see a change in trend that hasn't happened in a very long time (Year long downtrend on the weekly chart).
Just as an interesting stat:
June Volume = 492 M shares
July Volume = 410 M shares
Almost twice the float 2 months in a row... don't see that happen everyday.
Some major downtrend lines are being broken. but, still lack of conviction as indicated by the lack of volume. Tomorrow is key.... Weekly closes hold bigger significance than daily closes and also happens to be a monthly close. Monthly close will be in RED... Weekly?
Commodity cycles are typically 30 year cycles... You typical bear is not done until 2030 +/- 2 years. But, the interesting thing about a commodity secular bear market is that you have massive rallies for 2-3 years and then another sell-off. The cycle goes on for about 20 years. Basically, you will have many trading opportunities in either direction. As per EW commodity experts, the next turn up is due somewhere in Aug-Sep time frame...
It did break out of the short and intermediate downtrend... but, volume wasn't too impressive. BTU has the best chance to close the week strongly. A close over 1.40 tomorrow would make this an outside reversal week. Volume needs to at least 30%-50% above average for a legit break of the downtrend that has been in place for months... If that were to happen then you will most definitely get the attention of the shorts.
"The more you poke the same level, it is bound to crack... "
Broken.... Just took a measly 250 K shares to do the trick!
Now will the shorts slam it in to the close???
Why all the fuss over this 1.2-1.26 level?? Like I said before, If you were short the last thing you want o see is a stock break out of a 5+ month downtrend.
Every time there is a run to 1.26-1.28 level there is some panic sell to bring the price down... If 1.29 is broken then smooth sailing to 1.4 and we will see what happens when we get there...
The more you poke the same level, it is bound to crack... Works both ways :)
The move up is in a limbo state... Doesn't seem very strong to be impulsive (At least not yet) on the same token no too weak to be corrective. I still think by EOW we should get some resolution on the next move. Will it challenge and take out 1.40 or will take another dip lower....
That is their style...
They were very prompt to downgrade from $6 to $1.3 (On July-2nd) the day after the earnings warning sell off carnage from 2.11 to 1.43
$1.3... 13 cents below the intraday low of 1.43
Just a general observation that the downgrades/negative articles seem to have diminishing impact on the stock price.