Between June-23rd and July-2nd (Price range of 1.43-2.73), ~275 M shares were traded (Entire float), with 2 days of 48 M shares and one day of whopping 72.5 M shares. It appears that the ownership of shares has changed hands big time... Will not know until Mid-August for sure. Even then, July-1st &2nd that accounted for 100 M shares will not be included.
We have a nice inverse H&S pattern formed on the hourly chart... once 1.32-1.35 is broken the measured move should take the stock to 1.6-1.7 very rapidly. A close over 1.60 tomorrow would be an nice outside reversal week... Again, BTU has shown decent strength last 3 days with a very weak tape...
or my point #2 from above... There have been positives and negatives since the last purchase in Jan-14. I don't see a drastic deterioration in fundamentals since Jan-2015
It is a valid point...
Only 2 reason why insiders are not buying at these levels:
1) They don't see the value and expect the common to be worthless
2) They cannot legally do so cuz it would be insider trading if some other plan like PE deal, Buybacks or any other information that can potentially boost the PPS.
I guess we will know more on July-28th call.
The cr@p shoot that the country is not any one president's making, but a more systemic depletion of the middle class (Supposed to be America's backbone) and if unchecked will lead to complete annihilation of it.
Washington is owned by corporations, WS and other big money entities that fund their elaborate election campaigns... Hence, all the policies are catered to the idea of making the rich richer... We are heading to the same situation we had in late 1800's and we all know that that ended!
Today was just a short term downtrend breakout... Will there be follow through? That is the real question.... If it can break 1.40 tomorrow then inverse H&S pattern should carry it to $1.68 at the minimum...
When was the last time that all the coal stocks were down on a given day and BTU was up 15%??
When was the last time that the broader market had 2 big RED days and BTU was up 6%, followed by 16% up days?
When was the last time that BTU did not trade down with the entire commodity complex and on the contrary was up a lot?
"I expect a price around $3-4, some substantial premium over say, a 30 day average. "
That would be criminal....
Tangible book value ($9 ish) might be a better acceptable valuation.
With the cash in hand... they can hardly make a dent on the bond side. But, easy to boost investor confidence by buying back shares at these depressed levels....
"PE firms have been behind the continuing drop, and have accumulated many shares already."
I did speculate that when 72.5 M shares traded in a single day... but, very unlikely cuz no 13-D/13-F filings followed in the next 10 days. Unless, PE firms accumulated under different entities and kept each of them under 5% of the OS.
That is why I added my 4th speculation about buy back (A company has no obligation to report the buyback until the next quarterly results)
2 other X-factors:
1) It would be really interesting to see the SI report that comes out on July-24th. Did any shorts cover? Will it go down or up? If shorts did not cover who swallowed up all those shares???
2) Institutional ownership... Who sold? Who bought? What % of the shares is in strong hands? etc...etc..
Just when I thought I have seen it all...
"Trump for President"
The scary part is cheerleaders like you...
Now you know why this country is going down the drain?
Adding a 4th speculation
4) BTU buying back shares under $2
- BTU has a share purchase program (Without an expiry date) for $1 billion approved (back in 2008). I'm not sure how of it was already done or left. Makes a lot of sense at these depressed levels if the management is planning to turn the sentiment on the stock to positive and they believe that the company would make it though. To stretch is along further, could be the reason behind the CFO change if there was a dis-agreement there...
Capitulation happened on July 1st when 72.5 M shares traded.... Bottoms are not always formed on capitulation days, but several days/weeks later on low low volume (Seller exhaustion)
Well... Mr.Chart (a.ka. TraderJb07),
Too early to say with BTU, but it seems to break out of the last 30 day downtrend. But, again I'm sure your special chart does NOT show that...
My PT is def. between $5-$6. It should take 1/3-1.5 the amount of time (it took to drop from $5 to $1) once the bottom is in...