That is the wrong way to think about it... If you are a poker player then you would appreciate this analogy!
Consider the management playing knowing they have the re-buyin opportunity. The only difference is that in real poker you pay up for the re-buy, but in corporate america the management gets free shares of the new equity that is issued! Any management with this kinda debt will think only about themselves and the bondies that keep the lights on... couldn't care less if the common is wiped out. The only way to change that perception is when insiders buys hand over fist at these levels! But, no a single share purchased...
Just a observation :)
You have some clowns that create a new yahoo ID and start infesting the board with toxic messages... My suggestion is that you click on their profile and check their history before wasting your breath in replying to their posts filled with ludicrous claims.
Most of these clownsites have no position in the stock or options, absolutely no skin in the game. Just think logically... would anyone that is a serious trader spend a ton of time with countless posts, instead of trading other stocks.
BottomLine: Ignore them and eventually they will disappear and resurface with a new id...
Call and Put holders
ALLIANZ ASSET MANAGEMENT AG(CALL) 117600 Contracts
GROUP ONE TRADING, L.P.(CALL) 61543 Contracts
SUSQUEHANNA INTERNATIONAL GROUP, LLP(CALL) 50214 Contracts
BARCLAYS PLC(CALL) 27355 Contracts
UBS AG(CALL) 17570 Contracts
CITIGROUP INC(CALL) 17391 Contracts
SPOT TRADING L.L.C(CALL) 10538 Contracts
GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC(CALL) 8962 Contracts
BANK OF AMERICA CORP(CALL) 8368 Contracts
HIGHBRIDGE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC(CALL) 5838 Contracts
CITADEL ADVISORS LLC(CALL) 4299 Contracts
APOLLO MANAGEMENT HOLDINGS, L.P.(PUT) 42500 Contracts
SUSQUEHANNA INTERNATIONAL GROUP, LLP(PUT) 36272 Contracts
BANK OF AMERICA CORP(PUT) 36134 Contracts
GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC(PUT) 30035 Contracts
GROUP ONE TRADING, L.P.(PUT) 25215 Contracts
CITIGROUP INC(PUT) 20281 Contracts
PARALLAX VOLATILITY ADVISERS, L.P.(PUT) 9610 Contracts
JPMORGAN CHASE & COMPANY(PUT) 9045 Contracts
D. E. SHAW & COMPANY ., INC.(PUT) 8450 Contracts
KEY GROUP HOLDINGS (CAYMAN), LTD.(PUT) 7652 Contracts
HIGHBRIDGE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC(PUT) 7282 Contracts
UBS AG(PUT) 6924 Contracts
CITADEL ADVISORS LLC(PUT) 6888 Contracts
SG AMERICAS SECURITIES, LLC(PUT) 5607 Contracts
BARCLAYS PLC(PUT) 4238 Contracts
SPOT TRADING L.L.C(PUT) 4087 Contracts
GRAHAM CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P.(PUT) 4000 Contracts
OZ MANAGEMENT LP(PUT) 3625 Contracts
MILLENNIUM MANAGEMENT LLC(PUT) 3322 Contracts
HAP TRADING, LLC(PUT) 3223 Contracts
of course we have no idea whether they are Long/Short Calls/Puts... But, judging by the precipitous price decline... we can take a guess!
Listing only top owners that make up 50% of the total shares (~140 M shares)
BALYASNY ASSET MANAGEMENT LLC 18,400,368
VANGUARD GROUP INC 17,923,190
FMR LLC 14,226,071
KOPERNIK GLOBAL INVESTORS, LLC 14,149,906
STATE STREET CORP 13,276,158
STEADFAST CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LP 8,945,815
CAPITAL WORLD INVESTORS 7,500,000
CREDIT SUISSE AG/ 7,012,626
BLACKROCK FUND ADVISORS 6,764,153
BLACKROCK INSTITUTIONAL TRUST COMPANY, N.A. 6,680,531
SCHNEIDER CAPITAL MANAGEMENT CORP 4,804,091
RUSSELL FRANK COMPANY / 4,764,344
TWO SIGMA INVESTMENTS LLC 4,218,836
ALYESKA INVESTMENT GROUP, L.P. 3,749,904
TOWLE & COMPANY 3,666,523
MORGAN STANLEY 3,205,346
Note (Debt) Holders
FMR LLC(PRN) 264,227,000
TCW GROUP INC(PRN) 60,165,000
OPPENHEIMER FUNDS INC(PRN) 54,325,000
KILLEN GROUP INC(PRN) 51,178,000
PRIVATE MANAGEMENT GROUP INC(PRN) 44,573,000
INVESCO LTD.(PRN) 38,650,000
ALLIANZ ASSET MANAGEMENT AG(PRN) 32,000,000
PINE RIVER CAPITAL MANAGEMENT L.P.(PRN) 21,671,000
GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC(PRN) 19,674,000
POLYGON MANAGEMENT LTD.(PRN) 6,000,000
CREDIT SUISSE AG/(PRN) 5,796,000
DEUTSCHE BANK AG(PRN) 5,286,000
TEACHERS ADVISORS INC(PRN) 3,000,000
FEROX CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LP(PRN) 2,500,000
MUHLENKAMP & COMPANY INC(PRN) 1,990,000
CSS LLC(PRN) 1,250,000
AMERICAN CENTURY COMPANIES INC(PRN) 1,000,000
PALOMA PARTNERS MANAGEMENT COMPANY(PRN) 1,000,000
RAYMOND JAMES FINANCIAL SERVICES ADVISORS, INC.(PRN) 910,000
ENTERPRISE FINANCIAL SERVICES CORP(PRN) 700,000
BNP PARIBAS ARBITRAGE, SA(PRN) 640,000
TEACHERS INSURANCE & ANNUITY ASSOCIATION OF AMERICA(PRN) 500,000
Are all the following debt some form of convertible notes, if yes? then does anyone have the information of the conversion details?
2013 Term Loan Facility due September 2020
7.375% Senior Notes due November 2016
6.00% Senior Notes due November 2018
6.50% Senior Notes due September 2020
6.25% Senior Notes due November 2021
10.00% Senior Secured Second Lien Notes due March 2022
7.875% Senior Notes due November 2026
Convertible Junior Subordinated Debentures due December 2066
I think this is important to know, cuz majority of the shorts of the common are the owners of these debt and there is no reason for them to cover unless some unfavorable situation. The typical trade is to be long bonds and short the security to oblivion...
It is true... But, 1M is too small of a position to make any kinda statement
They could have sold more on July-1st drop... So, who are the buyers? Obviously, not the shorts. Will have to wait and see....
Just an interesting stat...
Lowest volume day in 20 months... That is something! Esp. when the highest volume ever was July-1st (70 M+) traded (Just 45 days ago). Volume is drying up would be an understatement :)
That has been the pattern for weeks now... Esp. Fridays, when big blocks are dumped in the last 15-30 mins to ensure a RED close for the week. Will this week be any different? Well.. will find out soon :)
Institutional holdings for Q2 are due today. The top-5 holders as of 03/31/2015 that are yet to report.
BALYASNY ASSET MANAGEMENT LLC 27,305,362
VANGUARD GROUP INC 17,526,432
FMR LLC 03/31/2015 16,371,357
STATE STREET CORP 9,799,727
CAPITAL WORLD INVESTORS 7,500,000
Other TOP Institutions that are holding or added:
AS OF 06/30/2015:
KOPERNIK GLOBAL INVESTORS, LLC 14,149,906 4,866,765
BLACKROCK FUND ADVISORS 6,764,153 (2,039,319)
BLACKROCK INSTITUTIONAL TRUST COMPANY, N.A. 6,680,531 (1,006,085)
Again, this does not take int o account the SELL-OFF on July-1st and July-2nd that resulted in a 100 M+ volume. But, the question you have to ask yourself is that if they did not sell through the carnage of April-June, where BTU dropped like a rock (Ranging from 5.60-1.92) did they sell when it dropped from 2.11-1.43 in a single day? I think most of the volume has been HFT daily trades for scalping pennies...
If this rate of volume keeps up in to the close then might be one of the lowest volume day in a very long time...
With that being said, neither BULLS nor BEARS are able to get any traction since the CC, This type of action is typical during major trend changes, but with BTU it has always led to a leg lower. But, a breakout or breakdown is imminent...
1) ACI filing for BK protection due to DDE failure
2) Crude and the whole energy space slaughter continues...
3) Other china related and/or demand headline risk
The stock is priced in for BK in the next 3-6 months and the perception of coal is dead and prices will never rise. Any change in above or other positive news will result in an explosive move higher...
BTU has a huge short interest and is threatening to break the downtrend (of course, today's action subdued the threat a lot). There has been a methodical slamming of the price going in to the close since the 0.99 level it hit on July-28th. Most slamming occurs after 3:45 PM EST. Then there are days that slamming is done at the open on lighter volume (Like today)
Today @ 9:31 AM, BTU was dropped from 1.26-1.20 on a volume of 67K shares. It took just 2.7 M shares and 90 mins to wipe out 11 hours and 15 M upside move from 1.12 to 1.26. Market makers/HFTs are just scalping on a daily basis...
Shorts strategy is to accumulate all day to slam in to close or vice-versa...
I trade more based on EWT and I think the pattern can be deemed complete (A-B-C correction from 2008 top) on several degrees of waves... I was a little early as the extension was longer than expected. At the most one more low is possible, esp. looking at energy trading as one big entity. Coal was the first to get hit and most likely could be the first to turn!
Bollinger Bands have been converging and range is getting tighter. Generally, this is a precursor for an upcoming BIG move. But, the million $$$ question is to the Upside or the Downside? For the last 4+ years, it has pretty much resulted in a big downside move, Is this time different?
Another low volume SELLOFF today....
I'm just looking at the AH Level-2 quotes and it is very thin on the ASK side... Normally, we see big blocks 5-10% above the CP.
EDGX 1.15 4000
ARCA 1.27 300
ARCA 1.29 100
ARCA 1.31 200
ARCA 1.37 200
ARCA 1.38 100
Institutional holdings for Q2 are due by COB tomorrow. The top-3 holders have yet to report.
BALYASNY ASSET MANAGEMENT LLC 03/31/2015 27,305,362
VANGUARD GROUP INC 03/31/2015 17,526,432
FMR LLC 03/31/2015 16,371,357
Are they expecting any news AH???
Sad, but true...
But, a depression will lead to unforeseen repercussions...
Imagine an America where most people don't have jobs and a source of income, crime rate will soar, complete chaos and social unrest!
Ultimately, the masses will thrive just by the law of numbers. But, it will be "The survival of the fittest". But, the ones that make it will have a prosperous future once all the dust settles and the markets once again become free from the heavy handed govt. intervention and the big banks manipulation.
It is very frustrating to understand of how this once great country is being ruined and yet can't do a thing to stop it :(
First and foremost... You are lacking the minimum comprehension of that I'm bullish on BTU. Get it?
Nobody has real time short-data... The closest that that is daily Reg SHO files which is of not much use. I don't think 10 trading days backwards is not such a bad thing especially if the price and volume haven't changed much.
With that being said, Until 1.32 and eventually 1.40 is taken out, no serious covering will even commence. Why? Then BTU would have done something that it hasn't done in 4 years... Higher-low followed by a higher-high :) Also, if you take out 1.48 or so that would the biggest % move off the lows since 2011.
I completely agree and the bankers will bring this country, if not the whole world down to it's knees. These MFers couldn't care less about the economy, people, future of the country/world, our children/grand-children and their plight. All they care is about making a quick buck today at the cost of destroying the present/future for everyone else....
The system has to be over-hauled from ground up. Washington is puppet to Corporations/Banks, until that changes there is no hope. Another revolution might be needed to fix the current corrupt system. Social mood has already started to deteriorate to reflect the upcoming carnage....
Again, 650 K shares dumped in to the close to make sure that the close is not at/above $1.26
This game of shorting hard in to the close and covering in the AM will work only for so long...
Once some technicals align (Just starting to...), shorts will have a tougher time covering in chunks!
I think the easy money on the short side has been made... tables might be turning!
Tomorrow might a very important day, taking out 1.32 and preferably 1.4 would be the first step to trigger some covering. At this point the move should be strongly impulsive or BTU might be in trouble.