If someone is down 75% of their investment then it just might be worth gambling the remaining 25% to see if you can recoup any losses or average down if you've more bullish and even make gains if it works out. Trying to figure out the value or hoping for a buyout is meaningless... All that matters is how much are you willing to risk & lose? Some longs are willing to go "All or Nothing" on this name....
I kinda agree with you... But, my estimates on the next bear are much higher. I think we are still in secular bear market since 2000 (2 Cyclical BULL markets with in it) and this nasty bear has yet take it's last swipe (The biggest and ugliest of all) that should wipe out about 70%-80% from the top and then finally a real secular BULL can begin and run for a couple of decades... (Unlike the recent BULLS that have been running on QE fumes)
It is sad how you fail to comprehend anything about my posts :) You make your own delusional interpretations and rant endlessly about them. Where on earth did you get the 50/50 chance from my post? Are you that novice not to understand the basic BULL/BEAR case for any stock? That debate has nothing to do with the probability of either outcome... I guess I'm done trying to get through to you..LOL
Unlike you I'm not stubborn with my views and I follow the price action to try and predict the next move before it happens. Fundamentally, NIHD is un-investable until some concrete issues are resolved (Unless you like to roll the dice). Like I said, I'm on the sidelines (No position) But, I'll throw you some future predictions...
Positive news about a favorable covenant deal comes out and the stock breaks 50 dma on volume and will head to $1+ for sure... If shorts panic then can potentially try to close the Feb-28th, 2014 gap.
No news comes out, the stock drifts lower and selling will pick, stops will be hit and will end up in the 40's at the minimum. Broader market sell-off and Russell ejection will be additional selling catalysts.
So basically, place your bets on which you believe is more likely to happen...
Why did it hold 0.6?
The reason being it was the short-term breakout level from June 8th. It is now testing that breakout.
But, the bad news is that is closed below 5, 10, 13. 20 EMA on higher than average volume.
Tomorrow can be pivotal.... NIHD has to bounce or at least stay flat or it is going back to lower 40's. Some positive news can def. help the stock...
Keep denying the facts and stay delusional. I called for bigger pullback last week and you were calling me misleading..LOL
I wonder what is the general nature of your posts? Just curious...
0.60 seems to be the battle ground... Some buy side bids showing up and sellers staying strong. Something has to give in before the EOD.
Volume is still weak and I think they are setting up for a bigger sell off on Wed. (FED day). Unless, the bulls recapture the broken short-term trend-line convincingly... this is going lower.
You're comparing Apples/Oranges here... The point is that getting kicked out of Russell will have negative implications in terms of funds owning it as part of the index will have to dump it and PPS falls. The magnitude of the fall depends on the ownership and that is not clear at his point.
If the longs just knew how to take profits when TA is begging you to do so... Just like I said last week... No news = more bailing by longs
If the stock breaks 0.58-0.6 then the retest of 0.43 is almost def. in the cards. Last chance for NIHD bounce... or good news to come out.
Desisting from NASDAQ gets an automatic 180 day extension... No such luck with Russell. If the stock breaks 0.58-0.6 then the retest of 0.43 is almost def. in the cards. Last chance for NIHD bounce...
Not sure how many fund that track the index own NIHD to guess the magnitude of selling... Not a positive news for sure. Again this is only the preliminary list and most likely due the stock trading under $1.
No intra-day or intra-week reversal played out this week. But, both Bulls and Bears got something they wanted... In fact every one wanted... Some volatility and price movement. Some important technical short-term indicators are flashing RED and could potentially lead to a bigger downside next week.
1) The short-term trendline from May-20th broken and closed below it.
2) 5 ema turned south and 2 consecutive closes below the 5 ema.
3) MACD cross-over might be in play.
1) Lower close after setting a all time high
2) Failed to break out of the channel and might move south to test the lower end.
I still think 1890-1900 before testing 1955.55. Most likely next week is setting up to be the test.
1) Move down to test the 20 MA (hard to say if it will bounce or fall though... Depends on the news driving it lower)
A) If it bounces from 20 MA, then high would be 1925-1930 would be the high end and the fall to 1900 will continue.
B) No bounce at 20 MA and falls though below 1900 to test the 50 DMA around 1890
What happens @ 50 MA is pivotal for the direction of the next 30-35 points...
A) Breaks 50, moving to 1860 and 100 MA (A little panic sinks in) A break below that 150 (1845)/200 (1810) DMA come in to play. We will get some bounces that should fail at the 50/100 MA and might makes it's way to the 1700 and upper 1600.
B) Holds 50 and reverse strongly (with volume) and then pushes up above 20 to test the all time highs. If it surpasses the highs then 2000 might be in the cards. (Rosy scenario: Earnings have to be stellar for this to happen)
When I said reversal... I was referring to an outside reversal Day, week, month etc..
It has to set a higher-high and close at a lower-low than the previous period
Yup... No intra-day or intra-week reversal played out this week. Relentless bid still @ work...