You moron... Just as usual you missed the fricking point...
It is not about the % gain, any numb-nut like can calculate it. But please explain your fictitious thesis of why $15 was the level you went supposedly went short??? You are full of it... Yo know it and anybody with some sense will know it...
Obviously, the Fitch debt downgrade was behind the selling. Gotta luv those WS crooks who front run upgrades/downgrades...
Any moron can claim any ridiculous thing after the fact... Where the heck were you when you shorted @ $15?? So, why 415... Why not $20, $25, $30 etc... So, you waited from $74 to $15 to confirm a down trend...LOL
Just created an ID on the same day that BTU tanked the most in it's history both by price and % drop!!! I'm sure it is just coincidence...LOL
Quit BS'ing that you actually trade and make any $$$$... Just another worthless poster that is clueless an stating the obvious...
From day one I have mentioned BK & RS are x-factors that no TA in this world can predict... But, if neither of those happen in the next 6 months then the stock will turn violently... get it?
"something instead of spouting bs"
That is your job, not mine...
Your posts add ZERO value and non--stop BS... If you are a real trader then you wouldn't be wasting your time on a stock that you have no skin in the game. I've encountered many worthless posters like you on these boards. You were never short or will ever be long... You don't trade period. Just post non-sense.... So, long Mister after the fact!
Either this stock is bound to reverse tomorrow or latest by this week, if not much worse outcome like BK or reverse split might be in the works.....
The only silver lining is that this might be the last push down allowed by EWT and it is happening on relatively lower volume...
Few possible outcomes tomorrow....
1) Gap down lower and reverse intra-day and violently move up
2) Gap up an catch the shorts by surprise and never look back...
1) Open flat to down and move lower for the the rest of the day on big volume
2) Open higher and reverse strong;y on big volume
We will know if any indications of BK or RS are in the cards and also was there any legitimate reason for the insiders to not have purchased a SINGLE share in months...
You are just flipping the stock... You were BULLISH then BEARISH and now BULLISH again. That's fine... if you post facts!
I don't think so.... One more low might be needed to complete the pattern. Also, market seldom gives this long to buy the bottom.
Why are most people under the delusion that FED has any control over the markets? Markets are controlled by human psychology (a.k.a social mood) and FED is merely trying to keep that mood from changing... sound familiar? Very, analogy is similar to that of addiction. At some point, what FED does or can do becomes irrelevant and just like a junkie this market will fold and collapse... Just like moose said, JNK is just one of the many cracks... this problem has very deep roots and will be 1929 all over again. Just bigger and nastier :(
#2 would be illegal to accumulate shares in that way.
The definition of WS is to find a way to do illegal things in a legal manner.
#3 is possible but BTU is limited by its credit agreement to buying only $100 mil of stock. One would think with liquidity being precious that BTU would buy back bonds in the 30s rather than buying back stock.
"is possible but BTU is limited by its credit agreement to buying only $100 mil of stock"
Do you know if how much of it is remaining? Also, it is hard to tell which is the dog and which is the tail. Turning sentiment with stock might be an easier battle to fight with such limited resources to work with...
Personally, don't really care whether He or She... A lot of trolls pretend to be "She" to get some goodwill on a board dominated by guys.
What I do care about is factual useful information that people can use to make their own decisions. All he has done is analyze people and their decisions, calls etc... Zero contribution about anything remotely relevant to the stock or the company. Anyways, that is already way too much time, effort and cyber space spent on discussing about someone whose posts have ZERO $$$$ benefit to anyone.
Sure... Trader wannabe that popped out of no where 3 weeks ago with his fictitious profitable short trade on BTU. He is FOS and has zero skin in the game, just pointless rants that bring zero value! So, bring it on....
"there begins to be an assumption the trend will exist forever."
You will be surprised that 95% of the people believe it and trade based on it. That is where EWT sees things differently and I'll be posting more charts on StockTwits sometime later today...
The short interest is almost unchanged from July-1st to July-15th, but July-1st and July-2nd accounted for 100 M shares traded! So, if shorts did not cover... Institutions did not buy (At least no 13-D or 13-F filings released) then who is buying up all the shares?
The only other sensible explanation is the short-hands being rotated... a.k.a Smart shorts are covering while new shorts (who are late to the game) are selling it to them, which explains the volume and unchanged net short numbers. What does that mean? it changes the pain point for the shorts... when the switch is flipped then boom, begin squeeze!
A very smart PE firm that is acquiring shares though multiple entities to make sure no individual entity holds more than 4.99% of the total outstanding, hence not requiring them to file a 13-D or 13-F. The question would then be if BTU is working with them behind the scenes, which would explain the pre-release of negative Q2 earnings news to accelerate some selling...
The only other entity that could buy up a lot of shares and would not be required to file a 13-D or 13-F is BTU. it has an open ended (No expiry) share buy-back program approved for $1 billion and used very little of it so far. obviously, this is a little far fetched considering their liquidity position... but, the long time CFO leaving recently makes this speculation worth while.
I would like to hear comments from the board To/Against any of above reasoning and why? I still believe in technicals and other wave cycles that dictate the price movement for the most part. Just trying to coming with a different perspective.
The short interest is almost unchanged from July-1st to July-15th. What does this mean? My guess would be that the smart shorts already covered... Why? Imagine if you were short BTU at $5 or higher... would you risk $3.75 to make another $1 (If BTU files BK, a very BIG IF) in the near future...Most of the easy money has been made, but the sentiment is so bearish that new shorts piled on it prob. under $2 and at the most under $3. Combine that will the drying up volume in the last 8-9 trading sessions... you get the idea.
The following is an approximate analysis of the average price and number of shares shorted during that time period. It is not 100% accurate, but captures the ball-park average shoring price and potential pain points for the shorts.
Time period: Dec-16th, 2014 to Jul-15th, 2015 (Last 7 months). Short interest jumped from 43 M shares to a whopping 98.07 M shares.
$1 - $2 - ???? shares shorted
$2 - $3 - 25.6 M shares shorted
$3 - $4 - 2.7 M shares shorted
$5 - $6 - 7.3 M shares shorted
$6 - $7 - 9.9 M shares shorted
$7 - $8 - 12.3 M shares shorted
Settlement Shares Average
Date Shorted Price
07/15/2015 -605,230 $1.51
06/30/2015 18,234,717 $2.36
06/15/2015 7,287,000 $2.92
05/29/2015 2,796,942 $3.82
05/15/2015 -537,132 $4.55
04/30/2015 -1,671,140 $4.97
04/15/2015 7,092,221 $5.13
03/31/2015 213,648 $5.71
03/13/2015 4,526,104 $6.61
02/27/2015 -169,169 $7.65
02/13/2015 4,823,473 $7.25
01/30/2015 2,371,080 $6.38
01/15/2015 2,923,022 $6.97
12/31/2014 7,500,674 $8.16
Negative number for "shares shorted " for certain time periods indicate covering as short interest went down
A rather muted 0.6% decrease and now 98 M shares short!!!!
As of July-15th, 2015
Current SI: 98.07 M Shares
Prior SI: 98.68 M Shares
Decrease (# Shares): 0.6 M
Decrease (% Shares): 0.6%
SI as % of Float: 35.6%
Absolutely no shares covered with a huge volume of 72.M shares on July-1st and 28 M shares on July-2nd. Another possibility is that the smarter shorts covered and the current shorts all piled in under $2 (Recipe for impending squeeze) Will do a separate post for squeeze analysis.
"JPMorgan, Wells Fargo, Bank of America could fall 30 to 40% in the next 12 months."
This will be like 1929 on steroids... which means 2008/2009 crash will look like a walk in the park. Minimum PT would be Dow below 3000 and S&P below 400. I think Wave-3 of 3 would be the market crash wiping out 30%-40% in a few days. The market might bottom somewhere in 2020-22 and will be a buying opportunity of a life time.
When does the trade begin?
There might still be another leg up in the market (maybe starting early next week) which should carry the indices to new all time highs (2165-2200) for S&P. July lows must hold for another high to happen...
Aggressive entry point:
When the long term uptrend line is broken (false breakout) and comes back in.
Conservative Entry point:
A five wave decline that should be followed by a 61.8% or 78.6% retracement counter trend rally.