Cup = 2.73 (June-23rd) to 2.74 (Sep-1st)
Handle = 2.74 to (2.2-2.3) base Around 20% pullback to form the handle, It can drop a little more to $2-$2.1, but if it shoots back up to the 2.7 level and break it then the measures move would be as follows
Cup Depth = 2.73 - 0.99 = 1.74
Target = 2.74 + 1.74 = $4.48
Also, this pullback might be just a 4th wave of the minor-3 of the intermediate Wave-1 ( As long the retracement does not exceed 38.2%) if it does then it would be wave-2 pullback that would be at least (50%-61.8%) 1.68-1.5
Trump is pompous #$%$ and has no clue about how to run a casino, let alone a country. You guys must be outta your mind to think that he is even remotely presidential. The guys born with a silver spoon, whose businesses have file for BK 4 times... Hell, any moron could have made twice the money he has today, by just putting his starter $$$$ in an index fund in the 80's. His candidacy was supposed to be a joke for a few laughs... unfortunately, it is getting a little serious. So, I hope America wakes up....
You seriously think that clown was a real trader??? You guys gotta learn to separate the weasels from actual traders/investors... The imbecile will show up only if BTU goes down and was never Short/Long the stock, just was here to infest the board.
Gee.... tell that to Carl Icahn who bought NFLX when the chart and fundamentals were ugly and make more than 10X his money. Don't fall for the WS gimmick of Upgrade at the top and downgrade at the bottom...
BTU is running out of time and wave counts to turn up (The stock, not the company) If the stock were to start an uptrend, now would be time and this week might be it. Today is a perfect chance for the longs (If any conviction is left in them) to close above $1.7 thus making way to an outside reversal day. If that were to happen this should easily shoot up to 1.9 and will see when it gets there. An outside reversal week is very well in the cards with a close above 1.85 this week.
Just as reminder 18 M shares shorted will an avg price of $2.35. Gotta make some people nervous. Shorts have taken quite a few shots today trying to sell every move up. They don't have unlimited ammo... question is how much more is left in the tank? Also, just want to mention that last week was the first week in almost 2 months that BTU did not make a new lower low than the previous week.
Another aspect from the business perspective is that BTU and ACI seem to own the coal assets as opposed to just mining for it like ANR did. Again, remember reading it somewhere...
The drop from Friday afternoon through today has been on relatively low volume. Sellers drying up? Will have to wait and see.
1) Date for share holders to qualify to vote on RS is Aug-10th, 2015. Could we some buying in to it?
2) Institutional holdings as of June-30th should be filed by Aug-15th
3) SI as of July-31st to be released on Aug-11th, 2015.
The divergences are still holding up. If BTU were to bottom and reverse tomorrow, A decent chance for BTU to do the following...
A) Outside reversal day tomorrow (Break 0.99 and close over 1.13)
B) Outside reversal week (Break 0.99 and close over 1.32)
C) Outside reversal month (Break 0.99 and close over 1.9)
Market seldom give long time to SELL the top of BUY the bottoms... which is why a quick reversal and impulsive move up on big volume is needed... Also, should be backed by a follow through to the upside.
All the big holders have not filed yet ( the top-15 to 20 institutions that hold more than 50% oft he float). But, event then the issue is July-1st and July-2nd accounted for 100M + shares traded and some of them could have got out then... I do think that the company will mention that top 5 holders as of today (Aug-10th, 2015) it is the cut-off date for anybody to be holding shares of BTU to be eligible for RS vote.
Watch for the final Institutional ownership number(s) due by EOW and see who sold and who held on? Who are the new majority holders and likelihood of them holding through July-1st sell-off.
Trading is for real traders... Not some buffoon with a computer and some monopoly $$$$ that is here to just post BS... Why? Cuz, It doesn't cost a dime to post!
Gee... People piling on the selling in the AH based on this headline. Retail panic and dump... Up during regular trading on 58 M shares and down more than 20% AH on a volume of 150-200K shares. Man! WS sure know to scare the small retail investor! Well, the oldest trick in the book is to pull the BIDS to create panic!
Peabody Energy (BTU) [As of May-31st, 2015]
Current SI: 73.22 M Shares
Prior SI: 70.42 M Shares
Increase (# Shares): 2.8 M
Increase (% Shares): 4%
SI as % of Float: 26.6%
Elliot Wave Technical Analysis and Price Targets
As per Elliot Wave Theory:
PT-1: $3.3-$3.6 Range (Minute Wave) (1-2 weeks)
PT2: $4.5-$5.9 Range (Minor Wave-3 termination) (4-6 Weeks)
PT-3: $7-$8 Range (End of Wave-A) (Minor Wave-4 termination) (6-10 Weeks)
Note: All time frames are from the presumed bottom on June-16th @ $2.21
The minimum price target is the Wave-4 of prior degree, in this case would be $8 level. Look at he moves in VALE and PBR from their bottoms... BTU will be similar
Check out my charts on StockTwits under handle "Options_Only_Trader"
Risk/Reward = 10%-15% downside, 50%-150% upside...
Peabody Energy (BTU) [As of June-15th, 2015]
Current SI: 80.45 M Shares
Prior SI: 73.22 M Shares
Increase (# Shares): 7.3 M
Increase (% Shares): 9.9%
SI as % of Float: 29.2%
7M shares shorted between 2.21 and 3.49 (Recipe for impending squeeze) Will do a separate post for squeeze analysis.
In that case... Why bother spending your time and energy on this board? Just out of the goodness of your heart?
When was the last time that all the coal stocks were down on a given day and BTU was up 15%??
When was the last time that the broader market had 2 big RED days and BTU was up 6%, followed by 16% up days?
When was the last time that BTU did not trade down with the entire commodity complex and on the contrary was up a lot?
We have a nice inverse H&S pattern formed on the hourly chart... once 1.32-1.35 is broken the measured move should take the stock to 1.6-1.7 very rapidly. A close over 1.60 tomorrow would be an nice outside reversal week... Again, BTU has shown decent strength last 3 days with a very weak tape...
"something instead of spouting bs"
That is your job, not mine...
Your posts add ZERO value and non--stop BS... If you are a real trader then you wouldn't be wasting your time on a stock that you have no skin in the game. I've encountered many worthless posters like you on these boards. You were never short or will ever be long... You don't trade period. Just post non-sense.... So, long Mister after the fact!