Only 300 K shares added by shorts. That is not a lot, but the point being that a sudden gap up can take these shorts by surprise and could lead to a decent squeeze. It all boils down to tomorrow's earnings... If BTU were to surprise to the upside then expect a very powerful move to the upside.
The only silver lining is that the intra-day volume looked like accumulation.... Low volume sell-off and some bigger volume sudden buys. We will know tomorrow of the next big move is up or down... But, what seems to be certain is that a big move is definitely coming!
Wave-3 or Wave-C will unfold... but, Up or Down is TBD :)
No explanation for the 5.5 M shares volume on Oct-st, 2015. it was not short covering... No clear who sold? who bought? But, should know more by Nov-10th, 2015.
As of October-15th, 2015
Current SI: 6.2 M Shares
Prior SI: 5.9 M Shares
Increase (# Shares): 300 K
Increase (% Shares): 4.7%
SI as % of Float: 33.6%
Shorts added around 300 K shares during the recent run up from $17. Tomorrow's earnings release should move the stock in a big way in one direction or the other, hoping for a big upside move and to challenge the $28-$36 level first.
The next price move should be rapid and relentless, but oddly it is possible to have a Wave-3 price action on the upside or the downside. Although, I favor an upside move rather than a downside move... both of them are quite possible. What we do know if that some resolution is bound to happen this week...
Impulsively break $28 for starters and eventually $30 & $36
Wave-1 or Wave-A = 14.85 - 41.10
Wave-2 or Wave-B = 41.10 - 16.35
Wave-3 or Wave-C:
Wave-i of Wave-3 = 16.35 - 28.00
Wave-ii of Wave-3 = 28.00 - 22.03
Wave-iiii of Wave-3 = ???
Impulsively break $20 for starters and eventually $19 & $16
Wave-1 = 41.10 - 16.35
Wave-2 = 16.35 - 28.00
Wave-3 = ???
Bollinger bands have converged and short-term moving averages have converged as well. Big move is imminent, direction is the million $ question. Volume suggests a higher chance of an upside move rather than the downside.
A 0.6% Decrease and now 5.92 M shares short!!!!
As of September-30th, 2015
Current SI: 5.92 M Shares
Prior SI: 5.96 M Shares
Decrease (# Shares): 38 K
Decrease (% Shares): 0.5%
SI as % of Float: 32%
No surprise that the SI has hardly changed... The daily volume was relatively low. The next report should be very interesting considering big price swings on very big volume since Oct-1st, 2105 (After the reverse-split)
Bollinger Bands have been converging and range is getting tighter. Generally, this is a precursor for an upcoming BIG move. But, the million $$$ question is to the Upside or the Downside? The last time it happened in August, we got a strong upside move... Which way will it go this time? I would give a 70% chance that the violent move is going to to the upside...
Just one day left.... Good chance of some filing coming out tomorrow. If it does come out, Will it be during trading hours or after hours? Should be interesting to see how it plays out....
A lot of algorithmic trading that triggers BID/ASK levels is your answer. 80% of the trading today is by machines and they automatically pull out BIDS or take out ASKS depending on the volume and trend.
For Ex: Price was pushed from $28-$26 in just one minute on a volume of 140 K shares. The BIDS disappear once they are hit with BIGGER volume. Just like what happened on almost all stocks on Aug-24th.
" 100 DMA, Kijun-sen, downtrend line all of them stacked above the current closing level ($27-$30)"
Rest my case...
Today's low of $22.75 is approx. 38.2% retracement of the move from 16.35-28. We have to see tomorrows price action for the next wave count
The pattern continues... higher volume on GREEN days and much lower volume on RED days. Resistance band $27-$30 and a big level @ $36-$41. Will have to wait and see how this plays out....
Another BIG up day (35%) on BIG volume (3.23 M, 48.5 M shares pre-split). It does appear to be a impulsive move, but follow through is the key. I still expect somebody to be filing 13-D/13-F on/before Friday.
If this is indeed a Wave-3 or Wave-C then the move should be powerful with gap up... BTU has a kumo-twist and potential kumo-breakout, 100 DMA, Kijun-sen, downtrend line all of them stacked above the current closing level ($27-$30). If broken then $40 test is def. in the cards.
If it can get above $41, Almost no resistance between $41-$65 and shoot up to $80-$87.5
But, one step at a time, $27-$30 and $35-$36 might offer a good bit of resistance.
"If there was ever a time for a commodity sector rally this was it. The question does it last? "
I have posted in the past that commodity cycle is close to a turn (of course varies from one commodity to another). It will a vicious bear market rally that lasts about 2-3 years with the secular bear market. But, the question specific to BTU is whether the coal prices have bottomed and will move up on a sustained basis?
"So it would be wise to sell into this bogus rally, including BTU which is going along for the ride."
In case you did not notice, BTU has been trading in it's own world. But, I've posted on Oct-1st about 20% of the float being traded with just 2 trades.
If you were an institution.... why would you vote "YES" for reverse split?
1) Reduce the volatility and hope stock is more attractive to other funds.
2) Keep the pennyland players, HFTs and other short-term speculators out of the game.
3) Easier to buy up the shares in case of PE deal or increasing stake
1) Make it marginable and make it attractive for short selling.
2) Potential dilution and shorting by the bondies who expect a DE deal.
Two big blocks traded yesterday making it the highest volume in BTU history.
1) 1.93 M (29 M Shares Pre-split) 10.5% of the float
1) 1.85 M (28 M Shares Pre-split) 10% of the float
The question is who sold and who bought? Did some institution SELL and did shorts COVER or some other institution bought it??
As of June-30th, 2015 these were the top holders. None of them own such a big block, but they could have added in Q3.
BALYASNY ASSET MANAGEMENT LLC
VANGUARD GROUP INC
KOPERNIK GLOBAL INVESTORS, LLC
STATE STREET CORP
STEADFAST CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LP
CAPITAL WORLD INVESTORS
Either way, the BUYER or SELLER or BOTH have to file a 13-D/13-F within 10 days from yesterday. Unless, shorts covered, the buyer has to report as both blocks are 10% or higher as a percentage of the float (18.45 M shares)
Another 1.85 M shares at the close, bring the official total to 5.51 M shares (Pre-split= 82.5 M shares) Highest volume ever!!!!!
Some big news might be coming down the pipe line in the near future.
That is essentially 30 M shares pre-split. Some massive covering by a short or a big stake taken by a short? Well... future price action will determine that. But, just like that today's volume is in the Top-5 in BTU history. Somebody is making a move... Long or Short (Expect a big move coming in the next few days)
Again, there was buying on bigger volume after open... Low volume sell-off all day long and big volume buying in to the close.
Tomorrow and Friday we will know about conviction.... Longs vs. Shorts?? Did the institutions vote YES for RS to Buy more or move away from penny land to remove volatility or trying to make some of their money back by shorting???
Wave analysis says... we can have either possibility.
Bull-Case: Wave-III or Wave-C unfolding
Bear- Case: Wave-V in progress