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Intel Corporation Message Board

picker.bottom 326 posts  |  Last Activity: 1 hour 19 minutes ago Member since: Feb 26, 2010
  • picker.bottom by picker.bottom 1 hour 19 minutes ago Flag

    On the 3 day chart... Breakout or Breakdown should happen very soon.

  • It has been challenging to the Elliot Wave count for this upward thrust since Aug-19th would be an understatement. But, I'm going take a shot at the wave count.

    We still don't know if this is a Wave-4 correction of the prior downtrend or a beginning of a new longer term uptrend (Wave-1), but what is important is where does the price go from here...

    Wave-i = 0.99-2.02

    Wave-ii = 2.02-1.28 (Approx. 61.8% retracement)

    Wave-iii=If we presume is extended, then will have these sub-waves
    Wave-1 of Wave-iii = $1.46
    1.28-2.74 (Five wave move)

    Wave-2 of Wave-iii = $0.74 so far
    2.74-2.00 (50% retracement so far), other potential targets are (61.8%=1.84)

    Wave-3 of Wave-iii (Most powerful move) = How do we know it started? It prob. will start with a gap up and never look back...(assuming $2 was the Wave-2 low)
    Minimum PT 1.618 * Wave-1 PT1 = 2 + 1.46*1.618 = $4.36
    Alternate PT 2.618 * Wave-1 PT1 = 2 + 1.46*2.618 = $5.82

    Wave-4 retracement (Assume range of 23.6%-38.2%, but could be less)
    Minimum Wave-3 PT = $3.46-$3.8
    Alternate Wave-3 PT = $4.36-$4.92

    Wave-5 is generally equal to 0.618 * Wave-3
    Minimum Wave-3 PT = $4.92-$5.26
    Alternate Wave-3 PT = $6.72-$7.28

    Wave-iv: Will project as we get more clarity
    Wave-v: Will project as we get more clarity

    Well... we will see how the price acts tomorrow. The 2 possible options are...

    1) Gap up and never look back, break of 2.35-2.4 would be first sign to jump in. A break of 2.73 in an impulsive manner will confirm the count and Wave-iii has started.

    2) Open around today's close or gap lower to $2 level or down up to $1.84 and reverse strongly and follow as above...

  • Potential Inverse Head & Shoulders pattern formation. If this pattern were to take shape then should rally to 2.7 level, break it and then rally 3.2-3.5 level (Neckline). At that point will have to wait and see if it can break out... if it does, then the price target would be...

    PT = Neckline + Depth of Head = 3.2-3.5 + 2.3 = $5.5-$6 range

    I have posted the charts on StockTwits

  • picker.bottom by picker.bottom Sep 1, 2015 6:24 PM Flag

    Two 100K blocks @ 2.14 BID

    NSDQ 100K @2.14
    NAS 100K @2.14

    Not typical for AH price action! Just an observation

  • Reply to

    Cup and Handle pattern (watch out)

    by picker.bottom Sep 1, 2015 3:24 PM
    picker.bottom picker.bottom Sep 1, 2015 5:29 PM Flag

    Yup... You can go with either pattern. Remember, the flush down from 2.65-2.22 level happened in 60 mins on a volume of 7.3 M shares. Shorts slamming it again AH :)

  • Reply to

    BTU - Next week price action!

    by picker.bottom Aug 23, 2015 2:28 AM
    picker.bottom picker.bottom Sep 1, 2015 4:54 PM Flag

    Was posted on Aug-23rd:
    "Minimum upside target should be any where between 2.3-2.7 range."

    BTU has been bouncing around once it 2.3-2.7 level... surprise!! surprise!!

    Bumping this up for some morons (More like fake traders that have no position whatsoever) so that they can read and obviously will fail to comprehend how TA works.

  • Reply to

    13-D/13-F filings in the next 2-3 days...

    by picker.bottom Sep 1, 2015 3:17 AM
    picker.bottom picker.bottom Sep 1, 2015 4:48 PM Flag

    If you don't see any filings by EOD tomorrow then no new big stake taken by any institutional investor of the Aug-19th, Aug-20th run up.

  • Cup = 2.73 (June-23rd) to 2.74 (Sep-1st)
    Handle = 2.74 to (2.2-2.3) base Around 20% pullback to form the handle, It can drop a little more to $2-$2.1, but if it shoots back up to the 2.7 level and break it then the measures move would be as follows

    Cup Depth = 2.73 - 0.99 = 1.74
    Target = 2.74 + 1.74 = $4.48

    Also, this pullback might be just a 4th wave of the minor-3 of the intermediate Wave-1 ( As long the retracement does not exceed 38.2%) if it does then it would be wave-2 pullback that would be at least (50%-61.8%) 1.68-1.5

  • It would be 10 business days since the pop in AI/BTU began... Esp. Aug-20th was big volume on both names. If anybody has taken a big stake ( 10%) then should see the filings in the next day or two...

  • Reply to

    What gives??

    by anthonyfusco509 Aug 31, 2015 1:31 PM
    picker.bottom picker.bottom Aug 31, 2015 8:36 PM Flag

    "aci stockholders have a lot of catching up to do to reach btu"

    Not really, ACI trading at Apr-2015 levels. BTU trading still at late June levels. BTU needs to catch up...

  • Reply to

    Soros' Impact

    by bluebassist2002 Aug 31, 2015 3:57 PM
    picker.bottom picker.bottom Aug 31, 2015 4:19 PM Flag

    Anybody can have an impact if you take a big stake and force some board changes, but I'm not sure if BTU is right company to unlock any value.

  • Reply to

    Soros' Impact

    by bluebassist2002 Aug 31, 2015 3:57 PM
    picker.bottom picker.bottom Aug 31, 2015 4:03 PM Flag

    This move has nothing to with Soros buying 1M shares (Which is peanuts for him and the float). Unless, he has significantly added since and files a 13-D in the next day or 2, stock is moving based on technicals.

  • If that were to happen and it gaps up over the 100 DMA and the Ichimoku cloud (around $2.90) tomorrow then opens the path to $3.5-$4.8 in a rapid fashion.

  • Reply to

    Icahn and Buffet

    by longfossilfuels Aug 30, 2015 7:03 PM
    picker.bottom picker.bottom Aug 30, 2015 7:29 PM Flag

    Don't confuse a bear market rally in the commodity complex with global gtowth. Global deflation is here to stay. With that being said, energy stocks should have a snap back rally.

  • Reply to

    Coal news

    by longfossilfuels Aug 28, 2015 8:58 PM
    picker.bottom picker.bottom Aug 28, 2015 9:12 PM Flag

    " if this is in correlation with the overall energy market "

    Not really, BTU was up even when crude was tanking... Only ACI & BTU have really outperformed. The waves and target levels are stock specific.

  • The short interest reduced by 6% (~6M shares) is from August-1st to August-15th. What does this mean? My guess would be that the smart shorts already covered... Why? Imagine if you were short BTU at $5 or higher... You would have booked your profits.

    The following is an approximate analysis of the average price and number of shares shorted during that time period. It is not 100% accurate, but captures the ball-park average shoring price and potential pain points for the shorts.

    Based on the below stats the biggest pain is if BTU breaks $2.65--$2.73 and moves up quickly in to the $3-$4 range, then if any of the lingering shorts or new shorts that have not covered during this high volume run up will be trounced. ACI's DDE new should be monitored over the weekend and in to Monday, could have huge impact on BTU (Positive or Negative)


    Time period: Dec-16th, 2014 to Aug-15th, 2015 (Last 8 months). Short interest jumped from 43 M shares to a whopping 95.5 M shares.

    $1 - $2 - 3.5 M shares shorted
    $2 - $3 - 25.6 M shares shorted
    $3 - $4 - 2.7 M shares shorted
    $5 - $6 - 7.3 M shares shorted
    $6 - $7 - 9.9 M shares shorted
    $7 - $8 - 12.3 M shares shorted

    Settlement -Shares -Average
    Date -Shorted -Price

    08/15/2015 -6,068,134 $???
    07/31/2015 3,508,678 $1.2
    07/15/2015 -605,230 $1.51
    06/30/2015 18,234,717 $2.36
    06/15/2015 7,287,000 $2.92
    05/29/2015 2,796,942 $3.82
    05/15/2015 -537,132 $4.55
    04/30/2015 -1,671,140 $4.97
    04/15/2015 7,092,221 $5.13
    03/31/2015 213,648 $5.71
    03/13/2015 4,526,104 $6.61
    02/27/2015 -169,169 $7.65
    02/13/2015 4,823,473 $7.25
    01/30/2015 2,371,080 $6.38
    01/15/2015 2,923,022 $6.97
    12/31/2014 7,500,674 $8.16

    Negative number for "shares shorted " for certain time periods indicate covering as short interest went down

  • Reply to

    BTU excites me! -- Also makes me nervous!

    by girish116 Aug 28, 2015 1:49 PM
    picker.bottom picker.bottom Aug 28, 2015 2:07 PM Flag

    Depends on when you wrote the covered calls... Unless, you cover them before the close or BTU ends up

  • Reply to

    BTU - Next week price action!

    by picker.bottom Aug 23, 2015 2:28 AM
    picker.bottom picker.bottom Aug 27, 2015 7:02 PM Flag

    If BTU is the middle of Wave-3 of 3 of the primary wave-1 up then none of the news can stop the upside momentum, unless the count is wrong expect the rise to continue. Most technical indicators RSI, MACD, %R, CCI, volume confirm today's break out and strength.

    Potential targets:
    Wave-1 =0.99-2.02

    Wave-2 = 2.02-1.28 (Approx 61.8% retracement)

    Wave-3 =
    Target-1 : 1.618 times wave-1 = $2.95
    Target-2: 2.618 times wave-1 = $3.97

    Wave-4 =
    Target-1 : 0.382 retracement of Wave-3 = $2.31
    Target-2 : 0.382 retracement of Wave-3 = $2.95

    Wave-5 =
    Many combinations are possible.... Will post later!

  • picker.bottom picker.bottom Aug 27, 2015 6:01 PM Flag

    Precisely why don't trade based on headlines, esp. in the AH (Unless you are trading a biotech that is hinging on a drug being approved or not) Shorts will jump all over it........

  • Gee... People piling on the selling in the AH based on this headline. Retail panic and dump... Up during regular trading on 58 M shares and down more than 20% AH on a volume of 150-200K shares. Man! WS sure know to scare the small retail investor! Well, the oldest trick in the book is to pull the BIDS to create panic!

29.19+0.59(+2.06%)2:55 PMEDT