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Intel Corporation Message Board

picker.bottom 326 posts  |  Last Activity: 1 hour 19 minutes ago Member since: Feb 26, 2010
• 0 users liked this posts users disliked this posts 0 Reply Something gotta give...

picker.bottom by picker.bottom 1 hour 19 minutes ago Flag

On the 3 day chart... Breakout or Breakdown should happen very soon.

• 0 users liked this posts users disliked this posts 0 Reply BTU - Elliot Wave Analysis. Next move?

picker.bottom by picker.bottom 16 hours ago Flag

It has been challenging to the Elliot Wave count for this upward thrust since Aug-19th would be an understatement. But, I'm going take a shot at the wave count.

We still don't know if this is a Wave-4 correction of the prior downtrend or a beginning of a new longer term uptrend (Wave-1), but what is important is where does the price go from here...

Wave-i = 0.99-2.02

Wave-ii = 2.02-1.28 (Approx. 61.8% retracement)

Wave-iii=If we presume is extended, then will have these sub-waves
Wave-1 of Wave-iii = \$1.46
1.28-2.74 (Five wave move)

Wave-2 of Wave-iii = \$0.74 so far
2.74-2.00 (50% retracement so far), other potential targets are (61.8%=1.84)

Wave-3 of Wave-iii (Most powerful move) = How do we know it started? It prob. will start with a gap up and never look back...(assuming \$2 was the Wave-2 low)
Minimum PT 1.618 * Wave-1 PT1 = 2 + 1.46*1.618 = \$4.36
Alternate PT 2.618 * Wave-1 PT1 = 2 + 1.46*2.618 = \$5.82

Wave-4 retracement (Assume range of 23.6%-38.2%, but could be less)
Minimum Wave-3 PT = \$3.46-\$3.8
Alternate Wave-3 PT = \$4.36-\$4.92

Wave-5 is generally equal to 0.618 * Wave-3
Minimum Wave-3 PT = \$4.92-\$5.26
Alternate Wave-3 PT = \$6.72-\$7.28

Wave-iv: Will project as we get more clarity
Wave-v: Will project as we get more clarity

Well... we will see how the price acts tomorrow. The 2 possible options are...

1) Gap up and never look back, break of 2.35-2.4 would be first sign to jump in. A break of 2.73 in an impulsive manner will confirm the count and Wave-iii has started.

2) Open around today's close or gap lower to \$2 level or down up to \$1.84 and reverse strongly and follow as above...

• 0 users liked this posts users disliked this posts 0 Reply Inverse Head & Shoulders Pattern??

picker.bottom by picker.bottom Sep 1, 2015 9:05 PM Flag

Potential Inverse Head & Shoulders pattern formation. If this pattern were to take shape then should rally to 2.7 level, break it and then rally 3.2-3.5 level (Neckline). At that point will have to wait and see if it can break out... if it does, then the price target would be...

PT = Neckline + Depth of Head = 3.2-3.5 + 2.3 = \$5.5-\$6 range

I have posted the charts on StockTwits

• 0 users liked this posts users disliked this posts 0 Reply Somebody making a statement AH

picker.bottom by picker.bottom Sep 1, 2015 6:24 PM Flag

Two 100K blocks @ 2.14 BID

NSDQ 100K @2.14
NAS 100K @2.14

Not typical for AH price action! Just an observation

Cup and Handle pattern (watch out)

by picker.bottom Sep 1, 2015 3:24 PM
picker.bottom picker.bottom Sep 1, 2015 5:29 PM Flag

Yup... You can go with either pattern. Remember, the flush down from 2.65-2.22 level happened in 60 mins on a volume of 7.3 M shares. Shorts slamming it again AH :)

BTU - Next week price action!

by picker.bottom Aug 23, 2015 2:28 AM
picker.bottom picker.bottom Sep 1, 2015 4:54 PM Flag

Was posted on Aug-23rd:
-------------------------------------
"Minimum upside target should be any where between 2.3-2.7 range."

BTU has been bouncing around once it 2.3-2.7 level... surprise!! surprise!!

Bumping this up for some morons (More like fake traders that have no position whatsoever) so that they can read and obviously will fail to comprehend how TA works.

13-D/13-F filings in the next 2-3 days...

by picker.bottom Sep 1, 2015 3:17 AM
picker.bottom picker.bottom Sep 1, 2015 4:48 PM Flag

If you don't see any filings by EOD tomorrow then no new big stake taken by any institutional investor of the Aug-19th, Aug-20th run up.

• 9 users liked this posts users disliked this posts 0 Reply Cup and Handle pattern (watch out)

picker.bottom by picker.bottom Sep 1, 2015 3:24 PM Flag

Cup = 2.73 (June-23rd) to 2.74 (Sep-1st)
Handle = 2.74 to (2.2-2.3) base Around 20% pullback to form the handle, It can drop a little more to \$2-\$2.1, but if it shoots back up to the 2.7 level and break it then the measures move would be as follows

Cup Depth = 2.73 - 0.99 = 1.74
Target = 2.74 + 1.74 = \$4.48

Also, this pullback might be just a 4th wave of the minor-3 of the intermediate Wave-1 ( As long the retracement does not exceed 38.2%) if it does then it would be wave-2 pullback that would be at least (50%-61.8%) 1.68-1.5

• 1 users liked this posts users disliked this posts 0 Reply 13-D/13-F filings in the next 2-3 days...

picker.bottom by picker.bottom Sep 1, 2015 3:17 AM Flag

It would be 10 business days since the pop in AI/BTU began... Esp. Aug-20th was big volume on both names. If anybody has taken a big stake ( 10%) then should see the filings in the next day or two...

What gives??

by anthonyfusco509 Aug 31, 2015 1:31 PM
picker.bottom picker.bottom Aug 31, 2015 8:36 PM Flag

"aci stockholders have a lot of catching up to do to reach btu"

Not really, ACI trading at Apr-2015 levels. BTU trading still at late June levels. BTU needs to catch up...

Soros' Impact

by bluebassist2002 Aug 31, 2015 3:57 PM
picker.bottom picker.bottom Aug 31, 2015 4:19 PM Flag

Anybody can have an impact if you take a big stake and force some board changes, but I'm not sure if BTU is right company to unlock any value.

Soros' Impact

by bluebassist2002 Aug 31, 2015 3:57 PM
picker.bottom picker.bottom Aug 31, 2015 4:03 PM Flag

This move has nothing to with Soros buying 1M shares (Which is peanuts for him and the float). Unless, he has significantly added since and files a 13-D in the next day or 2, stock is moving based on technicals.

• 2 users liked this posts users disliked this posts 1 Reply Close over \$2.72 would be huge......

picker.bottom by picker.bottom Aug 31, 2015 3:50 PM Flag

If that were to happen and it gaps up over the 100 DMA and the Ichimoku cloud (around \$2.90) tomorrow then opens the path to \$3.5-\$4.8 in a rapid fashion.

Icahn and Buffet

by longfossilfuels Aug 30, 2015 7:03 PM
picker.bottom picker.bottom Aug 30, 2015 7:29 PM Flag

Don't confuse a bear market rally in the commodity complex with global gtowth. Global deflation is here to stay. With that being said, energy stocks should have a snap back rally.

Coal news

by longfossilfuels Aug 28, 2015 8:58 PM
picker.bottom picker.bottom Aug 28, 2015 9:12 PM Flag

" if this is in correlation with the overall energy market "

Not really, BTU was up even when crude was tanking... Only ACI & BTU have really outperformed. The waves and target levels are stock specific.

• 0 users liked this posts users disliked this posts 0 Reply BTU- Short Squeeze Analysis (As of 08-15-2015)

picker.bottom by picker.bottom Aug 28, 2015 7:46 PM Flag

The short interest reduced by 6% (~6M shares) is from August-1st to August-15th. What does this mean? My guess would be that the smart shorts already covered... Why? Imagine if you were short BTU at \$5 or higher... You would have booked your profits.

The following is an approximate analysis of the average price and number of shares shorted during that time period. It is not 100% accurate, but captures the ball-park average shoring price and potential pain points for the shorts.

Based on the below stats the biggest pain is if BTU breaks \$2.65--\$2.73 and moves up quickly in to the \$3-\$4 range, then if any of the lingering shorts or new shorts that have not covered during this high volume run up will be trounced. ACI's DDE new should be monitored over the weekend and in to Monday, could have huge impact on BTU (Positive or Negative)

Summary:
--------------

Time period: Dec-16th, 2014 to Aug-15th, 2015 (Last 8 months). Short interest jumped from 43 M shares to a whopping 95.5 M shares.

\$1 - \$2 - 3.5 M shares shorted
\$2 - \$3 - 25.6 M shares shorted
\$3 - \$4 - 2.7 M shares shorted
\$5 - \$6 - 7.3 M shares shorted
\$6 - \$7 - 9.9 M shares shorted
\$7 - \$8 - 12.3 M shares shorted

--------------------------------------------------
Settlement -Shares -Average
Date -Shorted -Price
---------------------------------------------------

08/15/2015 -6,068,134 \$???
07/31/2015 3,508,678 \$1.2
07/15/2015 -605,230 \$1.51
06/30/2015 18,234,717 \$2.36
06/15/2015 7,287,000 \$2.92
05/29/2015 2,796,942 \$3.82
05/15/2015 -537,132 \$4.55
04/30/2015 -1,671,140 \$4.97
04/15/2015 7,092,221 \$5.13
03/31/2015 213,648 \$5.71
03/13/2015 4,526,104 \$6.61
02/27/2015 -169,169 \$7.65
02/13/2015 4,823,473 \$7.25
01/30/2015 2,371,080 \$6.38
01/15/2015 2,923,022 \$6.97
12/31/2014 7,500,674 \$8.16

NOTE:
--------
Negative number for "shares shorted " for certain time periods indicate covering as short interest went down

BTU excites me! -- Also makes me nervous!

by girish116 Aug 28, 2015 1:49 PM
picker.bottom picker.bottom Aug 28, 2015 2:07 PM Flag

Depends on when you wrote the covered calls... Unless, you cover them before the close or BTU ends up

BTU - Next week price action!

by picker.bottom Aug 23, 2015 2:28 AM
picker.bottom picker.bottom Aug 27, 2015 7:02 PM Flag

If BTU is the middle of Wave-3 of 3 of the primary wave-1 up then none of the news can stop the upside momentum, unless the count is wrong expect the rise to continue. Most technical indicators RSI, MACD, %R, CCI, volume confirm today's break out and strength.

Potential targets:
-----------------------
Wave-1 =0.99-2.02

Wave-2 = 2.02-1.28 (Approx 61.8% retracement)

Wave-3 =
Target-1 : 1.618 times wave-1 = \$2.95
Target-2: 2.618 times wave-1 = \$3.97

Wave-4 =
Target-1 : 0.382 retracement of Wave-3 = \$2.31
Target-2 : 0.382 retracement of Wave-3 = \$2.95

Wave-5 =
Many combinations are possible.... Will post later!

Moody's downgrades Peabody to Caa1, leaves ratings on review for further downgrade

by picker.bottom Aug 27, 2015 5:58 PM
picker.bottom picker.bottom Aug 27, 2015 6:01 PM Flag

Precisely why don't trade based on headlines, esp. in the AH (Unless you are trading a biotech that is hinging on a drug being approved or not) Shorts will jump all over it........

• 3 users liked this posts users disliked this posts 0 Reply Moody's downgrades Peabody to Caa1, leaves ratings on review for further downgrade

picker.bottom by picker.bottom Aug 27, 2015 5:58 PM Flag

Gee... People piling on the selling in the AH based on this headline. Retail panic and dump... Up during regular trading on 58 M shares and down more than 20% AH on a volume of 150-200K shares. Man! WS sure know to scare the small retail investor! Well, the oldest trick in the book is to pull the BIDS to create panic!

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