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# Intel Corporation Message Board

picker.bottom 347 posts  |  Last Activity: 9 hours ago Member since: Feb 26, 2010

#### BTU - Wave Analysis Update (09-17-2015)

by picker.bottom Sep 17, 2015 7:57 PM
picker.bottom picker.bottom Sep 18, 2015 4:39 AM Flag

Wave-v targets: Should be an extended one as Wave-iii was almost equal to Wave-i

As a % of complete Wave-1 + Wave-3 move.

100% = \$3.80 (Minimum)
127% = \$5.04
138% = \$5,60
162% = \$7.12

Generally the angle of ascent could be even steeper than Wave-iii and a lot of ground is covered in a short time. It could be a ABC zig-zag and the the Wave-A could be \$2.4-\$2.6, retrace to \$2 level and the ensuing Wave-C should be the final move potentially touching the trend line joining Wave-i and Wave-ii. We could see the move start as early as tomorrow with a gap up at the open... Will have to wait and see!

#### BTU - Wave Analysis Update (09-17-2015)

by picker.bottom Sep 17, 2015 7:57 PM
picker.bottom picker.bottom Sep 17, 2015 11:12 PM Flag

That would explain all the overlap and a deeper retracement for Wave-iv

#### BTU - Wave Analysis Update (09-17-2015)

by picker.bottom Sep 17, 2015 7:57 PM
picker.bottom picker.bottom Sep 17, 2015 11:09 PM Flag

The other possibility is that the whole move of Wave-1 or Wave-A is tracing out a Expanding Diagonal pattern.

Wave-i = 0.99-2.02
Wave-ii=2.02-1.28 (~61.8% Wave-1 retracement)
Wave-iii=1.28-2.74
Wave-iv=2.74-1.37 (~68% Wave-1 to Wave-3 retracement)
Wave-v= 100% or 127% or 138% or 162% of complete Wave-3 move.

If it plays out then another ABC move up is in the cards

• #### 3 users liked this posts users disliked this posts 1 Reply BTU - Wave Analysis Update (09-17-2015)

picker.bottom by picker.bottom Sep 17, 2015 7:57 PM Flag

Big Picture:
----------------
Been in downtrend since May-2008 top of 88.69.

For simplicity let us consider the decline to be a zig-zag (ABC). But, in reality it could morph in a double or triple zig-zag.

Wave-A = 88.69-16
Wave-B = 16-73.95 (The rally to 73.95 in Apr-2011 was just a retracement.)
Wave-C = 73.95-0.99

Where are we now? regardless of whether the longer term bear market for BTU is over or not, it needs an upward correction...

Current Wave Count:
-----------------------------
Intermediate Wave(1) or Wave-A or Wave-W= 0.99-2.74
(23.6% retracement of the entire down move from 88.69 to 0.99)

Intermediate Wave(2) or Wave-B or Wave-X = 2.74-1.37 (76.2 retracement of Wave(1) which is \$1.40), but if we consider this a ABC correction then
Wave-A = 2.74-2.00
Wave-B = 2.00-2.40 (~ 50% retracement)
Wave-C=2.4-1.37 (Exactly 1.382 times Wave-A)

Intermediate Wave(3) or Wave-C= Potentially an extended one. How do we know that it has started? \$2.02, \$2.40 and eventually \$2.74 will be surpassed. The move should be supported by heavy volume and in a rapid manner...

Targets for Wave(3) or Wave-C or Wave-Y (If 1.37 holds)

100% = 3.12
161.8% = 4.2015

138.2% = 3.7885
261.8% = 5.9515

61.8% = 2.4515

Levels to watch:
---------------------

BULLISH:
-------------
Flat/Gap Up:
Open flat or gap up and take out today's high very quickly and Potentially challenge the \$1.57-\$1.72 level for starters. If \$1.72 and \$1.83 are surpassed then the next leg up might be in the works.

Gap Down:
Reversal from \$1.2 - \$1.28'ish level and break \$1.57-\$1.72 level and not look back.

BEARISH:
--------------
If \$1.2 - \$1.28 is taken out and stays there then you have to reconsider the whole thesis of is there any more upside potential left?
Will post updates as we know details on the price action.

• #### 0 users liked this posts users disliked this posts 0 Reply BTU - RS on Oct-1st, What next?

picker.bottom by picker.bottom Sep 17, 2015 5:16 PM Flag

Who do you think is shorting BTU?

100 M shares sold short... By who?

My assumption is the BTU bond holders are shorting common as a hedge (Very common where bondies think the common will be wiped out or a DE deal is in play) It kinda explains why there has been no covering in the recent run up. Why would you cover if you know you might be receiving shares to cover with (Dilution)... Now, why is BTU stock price venerable here... Cuz, bondies will short more to lower the price that would give them more shares (They make money on both sides with absolutely no risk) The management only care about the company and their jobs... Not the current share holders and would not think twice before dilution. it also explains why there has been absolutely no insider buying....

Now, how can the current share holders escape from this terrible situation? Only if institutions that were worried about BK and/or limited by minimum share price requirement (\$5 or \$10) jump in and buy shares in a big way (Esp. before end of Q3) you might see some squeeze.

#### Reverse Split 1:15 Approved and Effective Oct-1st

by picker.bottom Sep 16, 2015 5:09 PM
picker.bottom picker.bottom Sep 16, 2015 6:30 PM Flag

Just a piece of advice... Don't fall for the block size on the BID/ASK, it is not real. Don't fall for a price movement until there is real volume to back it up. I'm not suggesting that the stock will soar tomorrow (It might), but remember the terrible AH price action when Lazard news was announced and the stock made a new high the next day. All the AH action is nervous retails and day traders... tomorrow/Friday will be moment of truth!

#### Reverse stock split may work

by bendivrep Sep 16, 2015 5:47 PM
picker.bottom picker.bottom Sep 16, 2015 6:20 PM Flag

"My point is the price of the stock does not matter only profit and performance."

I completely disagree...

Profit and Performance matter to the company and does not always co-relate with the stock price.

Most of the trading is based on technicals, rather than fundamentals (WS will always find a way to justify fundamentals, both Bullish and Bearish)

When charts are Bullish, all Bearish news is brushed off and vice-versa... Even darlings like AAPL, NFLX, GOOG, FB etc have had both scenarios play out. A lot of money on WS is made by front-running upgrades/downgrades...

#### Reverse Split 1:15 Approved and Effective Oct-1st

by picker.bottom Sep 16, 2015 5:09 PM
picker.bottom picker.bottom Sep 16, 2015 6:02 PM Flag

Retail investors exiting in droves AH. Impulsive move... At least should wait for regular trading hours to see the market reaction. MM are having a feast scalping the weak...

#### Reverse stock split may work

by bendivrep Sep 16, 2015 5:47 PM
picker.bottom picker.bottom Sep 16, 2015 5:52 PM Flag

Even though mathematically is makes no difference, stocks with higher price don't have the same % gains.

You have a better shot for the stock to reach \$5 now then \$75 after the RS. if it were not true then forward splits wouldn't be so successful.

#### Reverse Split 1:15 Approved and Effective Oct-1st

by picker.bottom Sep 16, 2015 5:09 PM
picker.bottom picker.bottom Sep 16, 2015 5:28 PM Flag

For novice investors, I warned that retail votes don't matter and management will do a RS ASAP. No surprise that did not buy a single share during this down draft.

We will see the market reaction in the next couple of weeks. The excuse that management gave was to make the stock available for institutions to invest by bringing the price over \$5 or \$10, with Q3 coming to a close in 2 weeks let us see how this plays out.

RS for companies with huge debt and high short interest is a kiss of death... Will BTU buck the trend? My guess is that shorts will be all over it tomorrow!

• #### 0 users liked this posts users disliked this posts 0 Reply Reverse Split 1:15 Approved and Effective Oct-1st

picker.bottom by picker.bottom Sep 16, 2015 5:09 PM Flag

ST. LOUIS, Sept. 16, 2015 /PRNewswire/ -- Peabody Energy (BTU) today announced a 1-for-15 reverse stock split on shares of the company's common stock. Authorization to implement the reverse stock split was approved by Peabody shareholders at a special meeting held earlier today.

"We thank our shareholders for their continued support as we work through these challenging times," said President and Chief Executive Officer Glenn Kellow. "Peabody is advancing further initiatives across our global platform with an intense focus on operational excellence, lean organization, portfolio management and financial strength."

The reverse stock split is expected to become effective at the close of business on
Sept. 30, 2015 (the "effective time"), which would result in Peabody's common stock to begin trading on a split-adjusted basis at market open on Oct. 1, 2015. Upon completion of the reverse stock split, every 15 shares of common stock owned by a shareholder will be combined into one share of common stock, and the number of outstanding shares will be reduced from approximately 278 million to approximately 19 million.

#### RED....AGAIN

by mjacob56 Sep 15, 2015 10:13 AM
picker.bottom picker.bottom Sep 15, 2015 3:29 PM Flag

Wave retrace men's are nasty. If it does not move up in a hurry then 1.4 or even 1.28 might be in the cards. A gap up or gap down followed by reversal still possible...

#### Facts

by traderjb07 Sep 14, 2015 11:32 AM
picker.bottom picker.bottom Sep 14, 2015 7:33 PM Flag

Posers, Frauds and paid Bashers/Pumpers don't deal well with reality or the real world! Hiding behind anonymity is the only defense mechanism.

#### BTU - Wave Analysis Update (09-11-2015)

by picker.bottom Sep 11, 2015 6:44 PM
picker.bottom picker.bottom Sep 14, 2015 7:07 PM Flag

"Pretty sure I know what your agenda is on this stock"

And what might that be?

"And your little wave charts aren't working"

Only time will tell! We will just have to wait and see...

#### BTU - Wave Analysis Update (09-11-2015)

by picker.bottom Sep 11, 2015 6:44 PM
picker.bottom picker.bottom Sep 14, 2015 6:43 PM Flag

Updated for 09-14-2015:
-----------------------------------

Just to add a little perspective, the whole down move from \$2.4 to \$1.65 last week happened on a volume of 44.5 M shares over 4 trading days and the biggest push down came after open with 500K-1M shares in the first few minutes. Somebody successfully playing the long weekend light volume to the downside... Price shot up from \$1.5 - \$2.74 in 3 days with a whopping volume of 140 M shares, came down to the same level with a volume of 90 M shares over 9 days. (Time, patterns and volume indicate correction of the uptrend rather than new downtrend)

Current Wave Count:
-----------------------------
Intermediate Wave(1) = 0.99-2.74
(23.6% retracement of the entire down move from 88.69 to 0.99)

Intermediate Wave(2) = 2.74-1.55 (68% retracement of Wave(1))

Intermediate Wave(3) = Potentially an extended one. How do we know that it has started? \$2.02, \$2.40 and eventually \$2.74 will be surpassed. The move should be supported by heavy volume and in a rapid manner...

Potential targets:
1.618 * Wave(1) = 4.38 (price basis)
2.618 * Wave(1) = 6.13 (price basis)

Will post updates as we know details on the price action.

#### BTU - Wave Analysis Update (09-11-2015)

by picker.bottom Sep 11, 2015 6:44 PM
picker.bottom picker.bottom Sep 14, 2015 2:18 PM Flag

Levels to Watch:

Expect a rally to 1.73-1.86 level, if it fails then another leg down to \$1.50 might be in the cards. But, if it surpasses the above mentioned levels and moves above \$1.95 then the downward correction might be over and the uptrend should resume is an impulsive manner. Taking out 2.02 would be first step and taking out \$2.40 would confirm it.

#### BTU - Wave Analysis Update (09-11-2015)

by picker.bottom Sep 11, 2015 6:44 PM
picker.bottom picker.bottom Sep 13, 2015 6:56 PM Flag

So, which will it be?

If Wave-3 is indeed beginning then one of the two scenarios is bound to happen.

1) Gap up and never look back and surpass \$2,74

2) Open around \$1.65 or even gap lower (Hit up to \$1.5-\$1.55 and reverse very strongly and eventually surpass \$2.74.

The first clue s take out \$2.02 and then \$2.40

• #### 2 users liked this posts users disliked this posts 1 Reply BTU - Wave Analysis Update (09-11-2015)

picker.bottom by picker.bottom Sep 11, 2015 6:44 PM Flag

Big Picture:
----------------
Been in downtrend since May-2008 top of 88.69.

For simplicity let us consider the decline to be a zig-zag (ABC). But, in reality it could morph in a double or triple zig-zag.

Wave-A = 88.69-16
Wave-B = 16-73.95 (The rally to 73.95 in Apr-2011 was just a retracement.)
Wave-C = 73.95-0.99

Where are we now? regardless of whether the longer term bear market for BTU is over or not, it needs an upward correction...

Current Wave Count:
-----------------------------
Intermediate Wave(1) = 0.99-2.74
(23.6% retracement of the entire down move from 88.69 to 0.99)

Intermediate Wave(2) = 2.74-1.65 (61.8 retracement of Wave(1))

Intermediate Wave(3) = Potentially an extended one. How do we know that it has started? \$2.02, \$2.40 and eventually \$2.74 will be surpassed. The move should be supported by heavy volume and in a rapid manner...

Potential targets:
1.618 * Wave(1) = 4.49 (price basis)
2.618 * Wave(1) = 6.24 (price basis)

Will post updates as we know details on the price action.

#### Wonder why is 1.66 holding up?

by picker.bottom Sep 11, 2015 3:47 PM
picker.bottom picker.bottom Sep 11, 2015 5:32 PM Flag

Another possible lower target is 1.5-1.53 (Extended 5th wave's Wave-ii endpoint)