It depends of the how aggressive you are with your trades... I actually almost trade options exclusively and been adding to Sep/Dec calls. You can check out my posts on stock twits under "Options_Only_Trader". I follow EW patterns to determine major trend reversals and if my #$%$ is correct then BTU is on the verge of making one
I'm just stating the general guidelines to confirm the pattern. Price needs to get above the mid-point of the prior day.
If there is a minor gap down tomorrow then the confirmation for the buy signal would be over 3.84-3.85 level or if it gaps up then wait for retest of the above levels. To be safe put a put a stop 10c below today's low.
This is kind of extreme bearish headlines that will cause the violent reversal in trend. I'm sure the headlines in 2008 (Ultimate peak) and 2011 (retracement top) read like "Coal super cycle will last years if not decades" etc...etc..
Tomorrow can be setting up to be reversal day... Today was the third consecutive gap (Pattern = BULLISH THREE GAP DOWNS) and close at or near the lows... A slightly lower open and reversal to the upside is very likely. Also, A new modest low would complete the Wave-v of the minute wave. BTU is setting up to be one more low away from a reversal that should at least carry to 4.8 - 5.6. A remote possibility is a gap up above today's high causing another type of reversal... (Unlikely)
As per EW theory, this leg down would be an over throw of an ending diagonal. Once this is complete and it breaks the downward wedge (Currently at 4.3) then this will move very quickly to 4.80 level. Potential downside targets are 3.86-3.71.
It has to hold the prior lows or maybe move lower intra-day and then bounce strongly... But, RSI, CCI, %R and many other indicators are showing bullish divergences.
My 2 cents on the matter...
MNST will make a retracement to $136-$140 level, but after that it is highly likely that a nasty Wave-iii of 3 will unfold and will take the stock anywhere between $95-$110 (Depending on the extension of Wave-i, which is 144.35 to 127.7). Why? Cuz, the broader market will also take nose dive once 2150-2160 level is touched.
What would negate the above EW count? If MNST can take out the 144.69 high... but, I really doubt it.
I rest my case.... Make a 70% gains on my options trade. This is just the Wave-1 of the bigger wave-A decline Now expect a retracement (if today's low holds) to no more than 136-140 range depending on the fib retracement. Once that is done then this is heading lower in a hurry for Wave-3 of Wave-A
Somebody is supporting the $137 level... At least for now! Cuz once it breaks the 134-137 box then no stop until 125-120
The AH volume is pathetic @ 170 K... Which eludes the fact that the institutional players are not involved. So, the real tell would be how it trades tomorrow... But, either way looks like a gap down might be result based on the current levels. But if gaps below the $134 level then some technical selling will take this down to $125 ish level in no time. Let us see how it trades for the next couple of hours first...
This is traditionally the weakest Q for MNST, couple that with strong $ and global slow down. Also, law suits and related costs... Not to mentioned the stock has gapped up the last 3 earnings and not really pulled back or consolidated the gains (Typical for EW Wave-5 action) The neutralizing factor could be the closure of KO deal... Will hav to wait an see.
I did not know that when I posted the above. But, that could a double edged sword when market is in a sell first ask questions later mode... Look at GMCR/SODA getting clobbered today. Both these stocks were already beaten down... MNST is priced for perfection, unless the earnings are stellar and they announce some other posiitve news in lieu of guidance... You are likely to see a gap down
Some decent insider selling. The only buys were exercising their options... The question is how much upside does one expect from these levels? 5%, 10% or 20%... The stock has already gapped up the past 3 earnings and longs expect that to happen every quarter??
It is apparent that technicals are gibberish to a novice like you... and what is with the language? For an old guy, I expected a little bit more courtesy. Anyways, we will find out Friday... My position is very simple, it either reverses from these levels or might have one last exhaustion gap up and then decline sharply. Check out QLYS post-earnings drop... Market is in the mode of shoot first and ask questions later mode for anybody that misses or guides lower...
Also, if you think I'm just making stuff up... Check out my post on stocktwits (My handle is "Options_Only_Trader") I've posted the EW chart for MNST