It is way over done here and today is setting up to be an inside day. Expect a outside reversal day from these oversold conditions. Initial price target is $9
$PG Went short via Aprils 87.5 puts today. Bumping up against 14 year trend line that market the previous PG tops and broader market tops. I don't see a break out on the first try... Should at least test $85-$87 first.
The shorts have to cover to close their position. They were right and you were wrong. Just admit it and move on...
Just got back from my vacation last Friday. hence, i missed to participate in the X bounce that I was expecting...
I rest my case the earnings got it above $40 like I posted... if we go by EW count and if my count is correct we would be Wave-iii of primary Wave-3 and the nastiest of all declines. This should take X well below the Oct. lows and close the Gap and prob. even lower.
I shorted AA on Friday @ 16.75 and yesterday morning covered @ 16.67 as it was holding strong when the broader market was down and was convinced that I'll get a better entry point. Once it broke $17, I was waiting for it to get back under $17 and it did... Also, today's investors meeting was just another sell the news. Why did I cover... cuz markets have an upward bias on Mid-term election day and the day after... that's why? I could easily claim that I went long @ 16.45 and got out at 16.6 or vice-versa, but I'm not... All commodities and the whole market is about to taken to the wood shed... I'm just playing the day-trades/short term trades until the real BEAR unfolds...
It hasn't quite gotten back in to to the channel. A lot of today's move is in anticipation of the investor meeting tomorrow. Unless, the management comes up with some news that is not priced in... it will be a sell the news type event. Also, notice the lower volume on the upside move in the last 2 days... My stop is around $17.40 or so.
The auto numbers will decline going forward and AA will fall hard along with it. Looks at all other commodities being taken tot he woodshed, you think that only Aluminium is immune to it? The first step is to the fill the open gaps
Direction Date range
up Oct-21-2014 15.71 to 15.83
up Oct-17-2014 14.65 to 14.82
PBR did not quite hit the target yet.. Will eventually get to $10 and might go lower. Typically PBR falls another 10%-15% after breaking a prior low. If that were to happen then $8.5-$9 would be the next real tradable bottom.
Covered @ 16.67 in the morning and waited for a better entry and got it. Still short 20K shares, but @ $16.99
from the lower side. China PMI below expectations, a perfect recipe for a short and I'm short 20K shares @ 16.75. Own some weekly calls as a hedge.
The only debate now is if we're in the Wave-4 retracement of Minor Wave-3 or was the minor wave-3 completed @ 1820?
If the Wave-5 is yet to unfold then the following are the targets
Wave-5 = 1X Wave-1 = 1805 target
Wave-5 = 1.61X Wave-1 = 1747 target
Alternate case: (Unlikely)
Primary Wave-1 completed the 5 wave decline @ 1820 and now we're retracing the move back to 2019 highs then the following retracements would apply.
23.6% = ~1866 (Already hit)
38.2% = ~1898 (Already hit)
50% = ~1922
61.8% = ~1945
78.6% = ~1973
High = 46.55
Low = 30.57
Updated retracement levels:
23.6% = 34.06 (Already hit)
38.2% = 36.83 (35.67 was today's high and if any more upside is left then this would a good target)
50% = 38.77 (If 50 DMA is broken then it will get here, but unlikely with today's fade)
61.8% = 40.71 (With earnings can get here)
78.6% = 43.11 (The most upside possible before the resumption of the primary down trend)
If the broader market trend resumes next week, X is almost certain to close the $28 gap next week. Today's fade def. adds merit to the bear case.
Come down with the market??? LOL... It is all technicals and people who are in denial lose $$$$.
PBR heading to $10 regardless of the Ebola headline risk. The only thing to change that would be Dilma losing the election.
The second target 1820 was hit and a decent reversal, now looking at resistance in the 1900-1915 area (If it gets there as a part of retracement)
Markets are not about what has happened? But, what is about to happen?
Your 9.5 months gains for the year, almost wiped out or already wiped out in 3 Weeks! Does it sound like the BULL market you're bragging about? QE 1,2 3 is only reason why you had this artificial BULL. Now what is the market going to do when the punch bowl is taken away? Will have to wait and see...