Gee... How bad could the winter be in Q1 that the GDP went from 2%+ estimates to -3%?? Go and check the impact of all natural disasters on GDP in non-recession periods. You'll not a find a single -ve reading.
Nice summary of the ponzi scheme that has been in the works for years to move whatever is left with the 99% to the 1%. 70% of the GDP is consumer spending and they are scratching their head why it ain't working?
Market is def. pricing in a 3.0 print at the minimum. I think it will be mid to higher 1's (1.5-1.8)
It might be revised lower in future updates. We have just remember the so called economists did not see a -2.9% print even after the initial 0.1% number for Q1.
I was off on the month (I was considering the general weakness in June, but obviously the euphoria lasted more than normal)... but July is setting up very nicely for that to happen..
Tomorrow's GDP (A really bad one) might actually shock the BULLS and bring back the BEAR from extinction. If the 50 DMA is broken tomorrow then free fall to the 200 DMA will happen very rapidly. Micro cap, Small cap and several other indicators have been screaming SELL for a while now.
A close below 1925 on July-31st would complete the downside reversal month.
Wait till the hedge funds and other institutional investors start bailing out... The prices will come crashing down and make 2008 look like a walk in the park.
Not really... They are dumping all the $$$$ in the big caps like AAPL, GOOG, FB to keep the indices up.
Thanks for acknowledging my call from months ago. My position was big as was in options... I doubled my money and some (120% gains on the options) and was happy with it. I could have made much more, but I'm not greedy... besides those gains were put in to other trades. My long term view on the market is ultra-bearish and hence I don't over stay my welcome. I think 2014 will result in huge market top for years to come... Too many divergences to ignore...
Will give it another day... It might get close to $17.8-$18 and then a sell-off to at least $15.8 or so is in the cards. Will be looking at longer dated puts to make some $$$ on the retracement.
One of the best post to describe how WS is full of shyte.. The so called talking heads, analysts know nothing better than any of us and they will do anything to lure the retail money in. The big reason why the market is holding up is cuz nobody is selling. Why? Cuz nobody is buying... How will the bankers dump the stock until retail jumps in? How long will it last? until some WS form breaks teh code and trys to sell... then the flood gates will open up :)
EW super cycle predictions are more aligned toward S&P below 500 before this secular bear is done. But they do have a final target of 2075-2145 before the bubble pops...
The next SI report to be released on July-10th should be very interesting... Some large trades transpired in June and we can get a purview in to if any shorts were net buyers to cover. Also, Institutional holdings might not come out until Mid-August and might be too stale information by then.
PPS is all that matters... Investor confidence is what supports that. Some funds will dump at any price you buy (If you think NIHD will survive) when there is blood in the street. Not when every Joe has a buyout target.
I've been posting about this potential sell-off for days... LONGS just like to turn a deaf ear! Just pray that 0.55-0.57 holds, if not 40's is a given unless some major positive news comes out soon.
Are you nuts? You don't make Buy/Sell decisions based on your bias, but what the market is telling you. Price/Volume is the only truth. I've been Bullish/Bearish/Bullish and finally bearish again... I follow the technical setups and it has been quite rewarding (Knowing fundamentals does help a little bit, but nothing much going on with NIHD unless some news comes out)
I guess you can't comprehend my post... let me make it simple for you. If it breaks 0.57 on above average volume then it is going to test the previous lows (Only some major positive news can reverse that) and make new highs.