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Skullcandy, Inc. (SKUL) Message Board

picker.bottom 280 posts  |  Last Activity: 21 hours ago Member since: Feb 26, 2010
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  • picker.bottom picker.bottom Jun 10, 2014 3:49 PM Flag

    Well... Once NIHD gets over 0.83 we will see how long you hold?

  • picker.bottom picker.bottom Jun 10, 2014 3:37 PM Flag

    If your average price was 0.5... Would you really hold on for a 10X return? LOL

  • Reply to

    My take on NIHD today

    by anhletran Jun 10, 2014 11:16 AM
    picker.bottom picker.bottom Jun 10, 2014 3:15 PM Flag

    Breakouts don't happen on a daily basis... Breakout was yesterday and now is the real test if it can hold the gains. Broader market looks precarious...

  • picker.bottom picker.bottom Jun 10, 2014 1:38 PM Flag

    I think that is only news that can move the market this week unless global markets throw another wrench. Dull markets tend to continue in whatever mode they were in...

  • Reply to

    Volume is suspect

    by picker.bottom Jun 9, 2014 1:25 PM
    picker.bottom picker.bottom Jun 10, 2014 4:17 AM Flag

    My point is that 44M shares traded between May 21st - May 30th at a price range of of 0.46-0.72 (mostly over 0.55) All that over-head supply has to work itself out for the stock to make a meaningful move up. The most it might make is to 0.81-0.83 ( I doubt if it can take it's 50 dma in this go...) and 50% retracement from 13 Week high/Low is at 0.87. Buying at these levels is a huge risk and if it heads south tomorrow then the first support is @ 0.6

  • picker.bottom picker.bottom Jun 9, 2014 9:07 PM Flag

    Tomorrow and the rest of the week should be interesting to see where the markets are going on the short term.

  • picker.bottom picker.bottom Jun 9, 2014 6:35 PM Flag

    If IWM fails to break above the right shoulder tomorrow (Essentially close over 117 on decent volume) then I think it will sharply sell-off to the 113-114 level in a rapid fashion to test it's 10, 20, 50 day moving averages. But, once the fear of H&S pattern kicks in then it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy. A test of the neckline @ 107'sh will def. be in the cards

  • picker.bottom picker.bottom Jun 9, 2014 4:55 PM Flag

    That really depends on other factors... Do we get to 1900 in a hurry and break down @ the 20 MA and 50 MA? Will it be a violent move to the downside or a gradual bleed.. I think the former

    I think the market can go one of the following 2 ways... (Based on 2 assumptions)

    Take a big nose dive in June/July/August (1700 land or event a trip to the higher 1500's if it over shoots to the downside)

    Long term top not in:
    ----------------------------
    1) Then come back roaring and take out these highs and go over 2000-2200 (Wave-5 of EW theory) and after that it will be a nastier sell-off than 2008. Last big swipe from the secular bear that has been in place since 2000

    Long term top in:
    -------------------------
    2) See a much shallower sell-off to the April lows and a rally back to a lower high. Rinse and repeat until the market cracks down and hits lower lows and lower highs in to fall.

  • picker.bottom picker.bottom Jun 9, 2014 4:14 PM Flag

    The Intra-day reversal did happen, but did not close at the lows. At this point, Tomorrow will the real tell... Personally, I think the market has put in a closing high today and we will see 1900 before 2000. Did we put an Intra-day high as well? That is yet to be seen... I think Russel will fail to break out of the H&S pattern and will move down in a hurry.

  • Reply to

    Volume is suspect

    by picker.bottom Jun 9, 2014 1:25 PM
    picker.bottom picker.bottom Jun 9, 2014 3:37 PM Flag

    50-100 points? Are you kidd. me? How quickly people forget the blood-bath days... We have reached extreme over- bought, over-bullish levels... Extreme is so many other metrics that everything is going to correct hard & fast... Absolutely, no PUT protection in place and once the the party ends... Everyone will hit the exit doors and can get ugly very fast. Go check out my posts on SPY board for the details...

  • Reply to

    Volume is suspect

    by picker.bottom Jun 9, 2014 1:25 PM
    picker.bottom picker.bottom Jun 9, 2014 3:05 PM Flag

    Duh!

    Since when did you become an expert on stocks Mr.bond guy? Go look at stocks that are in a strong downtrend, high short interests, potential BK looming situation and let me know how they perform when the broader market tanks. NIHD can defy the odds only if a major covenant deal is announced this week or next. Most people here are missing on the immense trading opportunity is providing on a daily basis... This stock is not for investment, just trading. If not convinced ask the long term investors about their break-even. 7.4 M shares volume is going up against 14 M of May 21st and unless all the supply has been worked off... It can't move higher.

  • picker.bottom picker.bottom Jun 9, 2014 2:20 PM Flag

    My call seems to working so far... But, the day is far from over. We will have to wait and see if we get the intra-day reversal today. Friday's opening gap is like a magnet and should pull down to the 1941 level. Russell rolling over would be huge as it would be considered a fail of the H&S test.

  • picker.bottom by picker.bottom Jun 9, 2014 1:25 PM Flag

    Volume is relatively low for such a critical level and for a break out... Broader market ready to roll-over. I would fade NIHD at this point. I think the S&P will fall to 1895-1900 very fast... Do you think NIHD will be impervious to that move? Unless, covenant news comes out this week... back to 50's and lower...

  • Going out on a limb and calling a near term TOP between 1950-1956 (Most likely next week)

    Prediction for next week's action:
    -------------------------------------------
    Step #1
    -----------
    Monday would be a great day for another flat to higher open/ reverse intra-day and close today's opening gap and then close lower of higher volume than today.

    Step #2
    -----------
    The dip buyers jump in, small bump and then resumes downward... the late buyers panic and market moves lower in to the week. No real support of any sort until you get to 1900-1910 level. A close below 1,915.98 next Friday would complete the intra-week reversal.

    Step #3
    -----------
    Might get a one day bounce from 1898 - 20 MA/EMA level and fail. Move down to test 50 DMA (1880-1885). Good chance it might not hold this time around or maybe once bounce and then fails.

    Step #4
    ------------
    Test the 100 DMA and the key level of 1860, might get a bounce first time or fall though hard to say at this point. If it gets below 1860 and it towards the end of June, then panic will set in as intra-month reversal is big deal...

    Step #5
    -----------
    Test the 150 DMA (might get a bounce) and then the big one 200 DMA and since it hasn't been tested since Dec-2012 (Yes, been that long) it deseverves at least a bounce to the 100 DMA or even 50 DMA which should fail and the bigger sell off continues... to the 1700 level (the trend line from Oct-2011 should come in to play) and 2014 lows, and the the May-2013 Top of 1687. A bounce a this point....

    Step #6 and further
    --------------------------
    If the QE fumes start coming off and reality about the economy starts to sink in...1565 (2000, 2007 top) and not to forget the gap at the 1400 level from the beginning of 2013.

    Now what could negate the above theory....

    S&P getting to 2000 and Russell making a new high, until that happens this could be another long term top in the making...

  • Reply to

    Next week is pivotal for BULLS/BEARS - Why?

    by picker.bottom Jun 6, 2014 6:16 PM
    picker.bottom picker.bottom Jun 6, 2014 7:12 PM Flag

    We are bumping up against the upper end of the channel that has been in place for 3 years... A few points is all it can muster before heading back to 1900. My guess it 1950-1956 is the top and it will complete the intra-week reversal first.

  • Reply to

    NIHD Buyout - Serious Debate?

    by picker.bottom Jun 6, 2014 5:54 PM
    picker.bottom picker.bottom Jun 6, 2014 6:47 PM Flag

    " so if there is no way out of this mess for NIHD, which I believe is true"

    You want management to admit that they have drive the company in to the ground and wave a white flag??? Why would they want to lose their nice paying executive jobs??

  • BEARS GAME PLAN OR PLAYBOOK
    -------------------------------------------------

    Market is way over bought as per many metrics... Next week could be the start of something.

    Step #1
    -----------
    Monday would be a great day for another flat to higher open/ reverse intra-day and close today's opening gap and then close lower of higher volume than today.

    Step #2
    -----------
    The dip buyers jump in, small bump and then resumes downward... the late buyers panic and market moves lower in to the week. No real support of any sort until you get to 1900-1910 level. A close below 1,915.98 next Friday would complete the intra-week reversal.

    Step #3
    -----------
    Might get a one day bounce from 1898 - 20 MA/EMA level and fail. Move down to test 50 DMA (1880-1885). Good chance it might not hold this time around or maybe once bounce and then fails. if it gets below 1860 then panic will set in as intra-month reversal is big deal...

    BULLS GAME PLAN OR PLAYBOOK
    -------------------------------------------------

    Very simple, Buy the 1-4 point dips and melt up will take SPY to the coveted 200

    Bottom Line:
    -----------------
    I think we get some resolution next week or worse comes to worse the week after. But the game plans don't change....

  • picker.bottom by picker.bottom Jun 6, 2014 5:54 PM Flag

    For all of those who keep posting about NIHD Buyout with $2, $3 $5 etc. price targets. Some food for thought...

    NIHD/Share holder perspective
    --------------------------------------------

    1) Why would the majority of the current SH (Institutions representing their clients) agree to a few $ buyout when they will still be under water?

    2) The bond holders would welcome it if it is a cash deal and they paid in full... I don't think it would be an issue, right CCCBondyGuy/Franc?

    3) Most important of all why would the company sell themselves for $3 or $5 when they have that much cash in hand?

    Buyer Perspective
    ------------------------

    1) What does NIHD have that is worth 4.5 B + what ever the buyout price for the common? I know 4B + revenue, growth in Latin america, assets etc...etc... but, seriously who would want them and why?

    2) How can the buyer justify this acquisition to their SH? Esp. if they are paying the debt and 5X premium over the market cap.

    3) Would the buyer have to deal with anti-trust and/or other government related hazzles?

  • picker.bottom picker.bottom Jun 6, 2014 4:13 PM Flag

    I rest my case again...

    They did make it touch 0.55 intra-day with one sketchy trade, but sellers are still in control.

  • picker.bottom picker.bottom Jun 6, 2014 3:16 PM Flag

    Today's close is very important for several reasons

    1) Weekly close
    2) Breaking downward trend
    3) 5/13 EMA have turned up for the first time in a while

SKUL
7.315+0.555(+8.21%)11:05 AMEDT

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